Summer 2025: Model Output Discussion Highlights

[Community Team]

This thread contains insightful posts and highlights copied over from the Winter season approaches: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary thread.

Please note posting directly into this thread is not permitted.

[phil nw.]

 AO-

Hi,

You can see from this chart at t132 that it is riding the jet path which is looping ne and then down  squashing the high later.

Not much in this run for coldies.The only thing on all 3 models(gfs,ukmo,gem) out so far is the +ve hts over the pole which are pushing the tpv  towards us which brings the mean jet south.This enables passing shots of polar air to easily come south so nothing really mild in this pattern.

It could be good up north at times but for most of us scraps indeed for the moment.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5180866

[Blessed Weather]

 Mike Poole

 Met4Cast

I wonder if we should be using Polar Cap Geopotential Heights to determine whether sPV and tPV are coupled or not? Dr Amy Butler and Dr Judah Cohen both use that measure. Looking at the latest NOAA/CPC GPH 65-90N anomaly from 1000hPa up to 10hPa they don't appear to be coupled?

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml

Here's two blogs from Amy with a useful illustration and description:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/polar-vortex-double-header
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/stratosphere-talking-down-troposphere-will-it-listen

And the latest weekly blog from Judah - skip down to Fig. 11 with his latest forecast out to 17th Dec:
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5181136

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

 mountain shadow 6 wks im afraid is a hideous, misleading post, its misinformation, rooted in you're own frustration!

None of us have a clue whats going to happen and every year the weather makes fools of us all, 

Its 7th of December and reading comments like that is entertaining, but that's about it,

The models over react to new signals, as they did with every amplification attempt, most storms, and everything else with it, on the wed, we read how interesting the models are, with a very disturbed and weak PV, and on Saturday we read how all of that is a bust, & know background drivers are relevant anymore, but one thing we do know is that the next 6 wks, the writings on the wall!!! 

Come on a tad of realism is needed.

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5181125

[Penrith Snow]

Each to their own but I prefer the GFS solution, ECM spells another week of boredom although beyond Day 8 they both indicate Atlantic dominated weather with wind, rain and increasingly milder temperatures.

Yet again Iberian and Euro Heights are the killer and yet again no where else in the NH is the Hadley Cell so inflated, if this inflation was due to GW you would expect the sub tropical cell to be inflated across the globe not just in the European sector!

Another tropical Christmas beckons.

Andy

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5181467

[bluearmy]

Interesting to see how eps mean counted down from day 15 to 5 (despite us thinking the nwp was in a very volatile state 

western n America ridge  

kamkatchkan vortex segment  

baffin vortex segment - there is a part of the Canadian vortex there but the main segment is further south nearer to Newfoundland 

mid Atlantic high - probably the most predictable feature from the back end of November but the mean and spread has it further east of where it’s ended up and not quite as amplified 

The spreads said that the svaalbard/barents sea vortex was uncertain.  That was incorrect.
what the mean missed was the Atlantic sector amplification into the arctic 

so a general pretty good but the missing bits could have been v significant for nw europe if the low hadnt interfered with that Atlantic ridging  

   

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5181729

[swfc-ocs]

 northwestsnow hashish?I'm in pal

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5181886

[Cold Winter Night]

 blizzard81

And it's not only EC. At 240h, despite big differences in our vicinity, GEM and GFS also show that Arctic High, connected to a West-Canadian ridge.

At least it may keep Atlantic flow at an NW-SE angle, instead of the dreaded SW-NE.
But it may also pull the Canadian vortex segment further South and West, allowing ridging/height rises in the East Atlantic, or Scandinavia, as it does on a decent number of GEFS perturbations.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5181961

[Met4Cast]

Quote from December 1st:

Quote

"Worth adding, if we see any meaningful coupling between the stratosphere & troposphere this would likely flatten any potential blocking."

There is now some evidence that the above has happened and the stronger westerly winds in the stratosphere are beginning to imprint on the troposphere, forecasting strat/trop coupling is rather difficult & complicated, even now it's not entirely clear how strongly coupled the two are.

That said - it's clear within NWP modelling now that sufficient blocking is unlikely to take hold to the north/west of the UK to allow for cold air advection, however there is still the potential for wedges to send colder air south and overall it doesn't look likely to be overly mild with 'cold zonality' the most likely outcome.

It's been an interesting period from a teleconnections point of view, the rise in AAM tendency has largely come from strong and persistent westerly wind bursts in the Indian Ocean, this generates friction and adds momentum to the atmosphere, though the chart in the bottom right shows how these have generally failed to move eastwards with time, I suspect due to strong La Nina easterly trade winds, despite overall the atmosphere being in a more El Nino configuration.

The MJO has continued it's slow transition eastwards through the Maritimes & -AAM anomalies (resulting in the current high pressure) have propagated poleward. On the face of it, these variables combined should have led to an amplification of high pressure northwards, resulting in blocking in the higher latitudes.

I suspect, as shown in the imagine below, too much energy will be left over in the higher latitudes which essentially "flattens" any attempts for high pressure to move north, we can see (circled) pockets of vorticity remain despite as expected the negative anomalies continuing to move north.

A rather messy/less clear cut picture moving forward. Temperatures generally below average but not quite cold enough for widespread snowfall away from northern hills/Scottish mountains at times.

Those of us who are interested in longer term forecasting know only too well how short-term meteorology can often throw in a cheeky curve ball, despite favourable 'background drivers' the stratosphere rules the roost when it comes to our weather patterns and I suspect a weak coupling has helped to sustain stronger westerlies in the higher latitudes & prevented the blocking that I've been highlighting as a possibility over the last 2-3 weeks.

The GSDM/MJO long term forecasting approach is very helpful at picking out probable longer term patterns but it doesn't have a A + B + C relationship, shorter term unpredictability (such as the stratosphere/troposphere) coupling can change the forecast.

This approach can never tell you "It will snow on X day in X location". I will try to highlight what could scupper possible blocking more front and centre in the future, I think that might be just as helpful as highlighting what could be going right.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182107

[bluearmy]

It’s pretty clear that we go from quite a low zonal hemispheric flow at 500hpa as is current to something much faster around days 6/8. that is seen as the ridges flatten out in the Atlantic and the pacific remains flat. 
 

therafter it’s not clear where we go. I’d say the ens seem to want to raise Atlantic heights again so that should slow things down.  Higher up we are looking at inconsistency which tells me that the trop remains the leader of the dance, despite an apparent level of coupling (I think there is a wide definition of strat/trop coupling btw).  Currently looking at a consistent signal for a notable MAR just before Xmas. 

the 16/23 mean ‘North Sea’ trough that was being shown on the ens and also the 46 has completely evaporated on the latest eps suite.  The geps and gefs still have a trough - the clusters reveal that the eps are struggling in the extended period to get a mean that reflects those clusters.   
 

I wouldn’t be rushing to make a forecast for the holiday period and the few days leading up to it. However, we will do well to avoid a zonal type spell. Maybe only a few days. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182116

[Nick F]

How often do we say in the warmer months of the year 'if only it were winter' with charts similar to the  current synoptic situation of high pressure to the north and strong northeasterly wind?

Looking at Netweather rainfall radar over the last 24 hours, could of been a lot of snow across parts of eastern England, especially Kent, if only the air were colder by 3-4C.

Bad luck or a sign that eastern and northeastern Europe is not as cold as it used to be this time of year? Also, Storm Darragh rolling in from the Atlantic quite a way north across the UK didn't help, by throwing in mild air off the Atlantic before sinking southeast into the near continent. But was this low deeper because of the anomalously warm SSTs over the Atlantic to the west increasing the thermal gradient? A lot of questions, but disappointing to have a northeasterly in December that's no where near cold enough for wintry precipitation, even on higher ground. 

Looking beyond this week, which is looking mostly settled, the high pressure looks to sink while a strong jet stream slides down across the Atlantic and NW Europe, with good agreement from the weekend of a period of zonal with a succession of lows crossing west to east across the UK, with wet and windy weather at times.

How long it lasts is uncertain, but with current forecasts for the MJO to weaken as it reached phase 6, not sure we are going to get much help from the tropics to take us out of a zonal rut through to and perhaps byond Christmas. Best hope, IMO, is for the jet stream to dip south of the UK, which opens up the pontential for more polar martime bursts / cold zonality, though this typically favours the north for snow and even then mostly high ground unless air source is really cold. May see the transitory wedges of high pressure if the jet goes south of the UK, that could bring cold air across all the UK to raise wintry potential, but transitory means brief cold shots. Best we can hope for for now IMO, unless we see signs of the trop polar vortex splitting rather than organising over the arctic.

 

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182126

[Norrance]

 Big Kev  Not always Kev. For example 1947 and 1979 among others were both very cold in the Eastern side of the US and produced two of our coldest and snowiest winters.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182189

[Big Kev]

 Dennis The way things are going, it wouldn’t surprise me if things flipped.  
Reality is it does look across the pond is going to turn cold again. It’s always bad news for us. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182181

[StretfordEnd1996]

50 minutes ago, Big Kev said:

It’s always bad news for us. 

I wouldn't say "always" - I still think there's very little relation to their weather and ours really, yes okay when the US experiences deep cold it may seem we don't experience it here but on the other hand, why should we? Not as though our weather and theirs is interlinked. I can think of plenty of examples where the US has received a notable cold spell and we have also at a similar time or within a few weeks give or take - but when the US receives a deep colder spell and we don't - it may seem like and come across as though it's always a bad thing but I don't think the stats are as definitive. (I appreciate when you say "always" you probably didn't mean it this literally).

GEFS 6z I think its firming up on something of a 'consensus' now in the run up to Xmas - 

Uppers slightly milder than average for most this week but a very brief WNW'ly type flow for a time this weekend will see cooler than average uppers, but not cold.

Milder then thereafter but signs in the ensembles and from the Op at another stab of some Nly winds around 20th or so. Will be interesting to see in the next few days on whether this officially becomes a "chase". Some relatively good looking ensembles for around that time as highlighted in this snow depth chart.

This December is reminding me of December 2003 so far (perhaps minus the storms) - a Dec which contained various HP influences at times, tending to brief flirts with NW'ly winds though far from anything substantial, but also a lack of raging SWlies we so often see in this day and age bringing our mildest winter weather, nor silly heights to the south. 

 

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182195

[damianslaw]

All a bit puzzling as to how next week will pan out, stark contrasts between ECM and GFS. ECM sinks and holds heights to the south but also shows heights building to the NW and a trough trapped oddly inbetween - a rather strange evolution. GFS appears a more plausible set up with heights also sinking south allowing a fairly standard ridge/trough pattern, with alternating westerly and colder polar outbreaks.

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182346

[WYorksWeather]

Lots of competing opinions on the evening output, so let's have a look at the EC clusters.

Days 3-4

The initial easterly becoming more south-easterly by day 4.

Days 5-7

Cluster 1 (55%) has a brief potential cold snap at day 5 with winds temporarily from the NW or N. High pressure then builds in across the UK at day 6, and then strongly to the south at day 7. Turning much milder. Relatively dry in the south, more unsettled in the north.

Cluster 2 (45%) also has a brief cold snap at day 5, then a build of pressure across the UK. Similar to Cluster 1, turning much milder by day 7 with a strong build of heights to the south.

The OP was in Cluster 2.

Days 8-10

Cluster 1 (43%) starts very mild with high pressure to the south, winds from the SW. Relatively dry with low pressure to the north. By day 9 and 10, turning more unsettled with a flat westerly, but still on the milder than average side.

Cluster 2 (37%) also starts mild at day 8 and relatively dry, with strong high pressure to the south. Similar at day 9, then turning more unsettled at day 10 but continuing very mild with a long-fetch south-westerly.

Cluster 3 (20%) has high pressure to the south but also retains a mid-latitude block in the Atlantic. Generally drier and milder in the south, but with some chances for cold snaps in the north where the wind direction turns to the north-west or north.

The OP was in Cluster 2.

Days 11-15

Cluster 1 (63%) has high pressure centred to the west of the UK at day 11, bringing a fairly cold north-westerly. Turning much milder at day 13 with high pressure centred more to the south. However, turning significantly colder again at day 15, particularly in the north, with high pressure building from the south through the mid-Atlantic up to Iceland. That setup has potential, but it's fairly knife-edge, as it all depends on the placement and persistence of the high.

Cluster 2 (37%) is an extremely messy setup. A series of weak low and high pressure signals all around the UK. Overall, a battleground between westerlies and easterlies looks possible, but overall likely fairly wet and not especially cold. Not particularly mild either.

Summary

No sugar-coating the output up to day 10. Pretty dire from a cold perspective. The signal to inflate heights to our south from around days 5-10 virtually guarantees mild weather in that timeframe.

The extended range does look a little better - Cluster 1, making up 63% of the ensemble, has a pattern that can be worked with from a cold perspective. Cluster 2 is messy but not ridiculously mild either. At least it isn't dreadful all the way out to day 15 - that's about the best I can do in terms of injecting some optimism.

Overall, I think we should expect a pretty mild third week of December after a somewhat colder than average second week. The all important fourth week for Christmas itself remains up for grabs for now.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182391

[nick sussex]

The outputs aren’t exactly inspiring for coldies but neither are they awful.

We’ve not seen and hope not to see a limpet PV stuck to the north with no sign of moving or fragmenting .

So it could be worse and after the initial PV blowing up to the north the models then fragment that and it’s a case of chasing those PV lobes around to see whether we could squeeze something colder out of that .

The ECM throws another scenario out this morning so I’d take this as a good sign that there’s a lot of background noise . 

The MJO signal is hard to pin down because of the divergence in upper level  v lower level fields so this could be part of that noise .

So in effect the upper level field says yes the MJO is on the move and the lower shows little movement .

The constructed analogue forecast does show continued movement east so let’s hope that is the case .

The general correlation with a phase 6 is to draw the Euro high westwards so that allows a more se tracking jet into Western Europe and a chance to develop lower heights over Central Europe.

So it’s I’m afraid a wait and see as to whether we can get that into at least phase 6 .

For this reason the festive period is still up for grabs as to what the UK will see .

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182526

[Blessed Weather]

We have been discussing whether the strat PV and the trop PV have been coupled as coupling nearly always sees a period of strong tropospheric westerly winds for the UK. The latest update from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) confirms that the Strat PV and the Trop PV have been uncoupled over the last couple of weeks. (Before that a very brief coupling in Nov). The GEFS forecast is for them to remain uncoupled until around the 14th Dec at which point a further brief coupling could take place. This is how Dr Judah Cohen describes the situation in his weekly update, published yesterday evening:

"The latest plot of the polar cap geopotential height anomalies (PCHs) currently shows normal to warm/positive PCHs in the troposphere with cold/negative PCHs in the stratosphere (Figure 11). The cold/negative PCHs from the stratosphere are predicted to descend all the way to the surface but only briefly.  Then the contrast between cold/negative PCHs in the stratosphere and warm/positive PCHs are predicted in the troposphere is predicted to return for the pre-holiday [Christmas] period.  For now, this suggests that the stratosphere and troposphere are mostly uncoupled but that could change with time. Still waiting to see if the cold/negative PCHs in the stratosphere could couple to the surface for a longer duration or whether the warm/positive PCHs in the troposphere could force a larger polar vortex disruption."

Source: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

This Google AI search result supports the methodology for determining coupling:

Also see Dr Amy Butler's blogs listed in my previous post here.

Other points of interest in Dr Cohen's report are the persistent stretching of the sPV with two events already having taken place and another two predicted. However, in his opinion stretching doesn't overly impact Europe:

"Western Europe isn’t strongly influenced by stretched PVs, instead the weather is more dependent on Greenland high or low pressure. High pressure across Greenland this week will bring some cooler weather but overall looks like a mild pattern. Longer term is it “rinse, lather, repeat” or more durable cold or mild weather? The jury is still out in my opinion."

 

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182529

[Met4Cast]

Forecasting is hard. So many different variables interacting with one another in often unpredictable and in some cases unknown ways. If modelling powered by super computers can't do it then our little human brains designed to eat, reproduce and survive certainly can't!

Perhaps this should have been obvious from the start but often hindsight is a powerful tool. Strong La Nina trade winds in the central Pacific really have been acting as a wall to the westerly wind bursts in the Indian Ocean preventing them from transitioning east, the strong WWB's have been the key driver in +AAM tendency and increasing global momentum via frictional torque processes. 

Long term, I think we're going to struggle to maintain +AAM and instead we'll see the a stronger ocean/atmospheric coupling with a La Nina configuration. MJO progression east may somewhat impact the trade winds. This is the latest update from the MJO experts;

It's expected that the MJO will continue to progress east through phase 5 and into phase 6 but the amplitude of that is rather uncertain, GFS fathering a slightly more amplified wave, the ECMO less so;

Overall though - Falling AAM may serve to strengthen the up-coming westerly pattern whilst the MJO may serve to disrupt it, two different drivers pointing in opposite directions doesn't typically inspire confidence. 

The slower than expected MJO progression might have something to do wiith the lack of blocking mid-late December appearing on the charts, if we had seen a faster progression it would have coincided with -ve AAM anomalies arriving into the higher latitudes and may have produced enough 'oomph' to get us over the line. 

As ever - Forecasts have to evolve based on the latest data available and currently it's not looking particularly good for those wanting cold/snow. Perhaps a delayed lagged 6/7 MJO can produce something in January?

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182565

[mountain shadow]

 Chesil View It isn't really though.

If a favourable weather pattern for a high latitude block around Christmas were to happen, we would be seeing the building blocks in the model output now.

Those building blocks are not there, so the probability of high latitude block bringing snow and cold around Christmas are less than 5% in my view.

As I have said before though, that doesn't mean snow isn't possible somewhere from a Northerly toppler.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182733

[nick sussex]

The UKMO shows some potential at day 7 .

Much then depends on the set up over ne Canada as to whether that low to the sw sharpens up and helps to pull the ridge north ahead of it .

And that little shortwave near Biscay helps to support the ridge .

 

Following the frames the low to the sw is losing eastwards momentum and is tracking more north .

So if the upstream pattern has sufficient amplitude at day 8 the low sharpens in response to that and helps to build the ridge north .

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182788

[Mike Poole]

If there is any light at the end of the tunnel, it can perhaps be seen in the extended clusters from this morning, T264+:

Cluster 2 evolves to a Scandi high, and this solution is a) more members (24) than on yesterday’s 12z (19) and b) the high is better placed (at least on the representative member).  Maybe GEM 12z is headed towards such an evolution.

What’s also interesting is that even cluster 1 might head that way at the end.

It is a potential signal to watch in the day 10-15 period, to see if it can gain any traction.

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182784

[Mike Poole]

Where on earth has all this blocking suddenly sprung from?  Clusters T264+:

I’d been following the signal for a Scandi high on the last two runs, and here that has split into 3 - clusters 1, 4 and 5.  Joined by a very robust looking MAR on cluster 3, which leaves cluster 2 as the one remaining zonal affair.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182883

[WYorksWeather]

EC clusters below.

Days 3-4

A south-easterly at day 3 giving way to a transient north-westerly shot at day 4.

Days 5-7

Cluster 1 (37%) starts with a fairly cold high ridging in from the Atlantic. The high progresses eastwards and sinks, leaving a very mild pattern by day 7 with a strong high to the south. Mild everywhere, but with the risk of some unsettled conditions especially further north.

Cluster 2 (33%) has a fairly similar pattern, but with more of a northward extension of the high to our south, keeping most of the UK dry. Still mild though.

Cluster 3 (29%) keeps more of a UK high at days 5 and 6, then sinks the high south, but maintains a slight trail of heights in the mid-Atlantic.

The OP was in Cluster 3.

Days 8-10

Cluster 1 (41%) starts with a massive Iberian / Euro high at days 8 and 9. Very mild. By day 10, the high slips further east, and heights to our north-west become more influential. A mild/cold battleground is where we end up.

Cluster 2 (33%) starts with a mild day 8 and day 9, but then sinks the Euro heights further south. This allows a more potent cold push from the north at day 10, with the heights to our north-west better oriented for UK cold.

Cluster 3 (25%) has a mild day 8 with the Euro high, but the high quickly slips away southwards, allowing a colder pattern from the north-west. High perhaps not as well oriented as Cluster 2, though, but still on the colder than average side.

The OP was in Cluster 2.

Days 11-15

All very uncertain, but a first chance to have a look at Christmas Day tonight.

Cluster 1 (33%) has a mid-Atlantic ridge at day 11 which is fairly cold and seasonal, becoming a Euro High with milder conditions at day 13, then more of a Scandinavian High by day 15, albeit poorly placed for UK cold with the UK on the western edge.

Cluster 2 (25%) starts with an anti-cyclonic southerly or south-easterly. Likely near average temperatures but quite gloomy, though a lot depends on the temperature of the air wrapped up in the high. By day 13 and day 15, a large area of high pressure across much of mainland Europe and the UK. Some surface cold potential.

Cluster 3 (16%) has a very stormy spell at day 11, then a cold and unsettled setup with troughing to the east of the UK. Good cold potential overall.

Cluster 4 (14%) has a strong UK high pattern. Some surface cold potential and very dry.

Cluster 5 (12%) has high pressure centred just north of the UK. Winds generally from the east. Cold, but exactly how cold will depend on the temperature of mainland Europe at that stage.

Summary

Very much two halves to this. From around day 5 to day 9, the outlook is truly dreadful from a cold perspective, with a strong signal for Euro heights. A glance at some of the meteogram output suggests temperatures perhaps as high as mid-teens in the mildest areas.

Beyond that, as @Mike Poole alluded to, a very blocked pattern starts to emerge around day 10, with mainly settled weather likely. The only question mark is around how much latitude the high pressure is able to gain. Quite a lot of the extended clusters beyond day 10 show good potential but the block isn't quite far enough north, with a lot of UK high setups. That would be good for a relatively cold and seasonal spell at the surface, especially with solar input at its absolute lowest, but perhaps still questionable whether that sort of setup would be enough to deliver widespread snow.

Still need to wait another few days to see if the signal holds before getting too excited. I wouldn't call this the next chase until it's nearer the 7-10 day timeframe.

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182895

[Sweatyman]

 goosey007 more chance of snow in the desert than this hopeless place!

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101008-winter-season-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5182880