End of Scottish ski resorts?

[Ciarán]

Very poor conditions for ski resorts in the Cairngorms, minimum of 6 deg at 800m asl on Sunday with the SW'ly foehn.

What do you think will happen to them?

[Paul]

Not sure what you're asking in this one? Are you talking about the upcoming weekend or the bigger picture for skiing in Scotland?

In the shorter term, those forecasts are for the base of each resort, so higher up snow conditions will be better. But regardless, the Scottish ski industry is very used to variable weather and snow coming and going, it's not the same as the Alps where a base sets up and stays for the whole winter at altitude. 

[danm]

 Snowspout there is a temperature inversion at the moment with the peaks above freezing and the glens sub zero, but the Cairngorm plateau has had a lot of snow so far this winter. Many days over the last few weeks have seen temperatures well below freezing with heavy snowfall.

Thick snow lying at the moment:

Live Webcams - Cairngorm Mountain

WWW.CAIRNGORMMOUNTAIN.CO.UK

---

Our live webcam images update every 60 seconds, refresh your browser to ensure you are viewing the latest image.

and photos from recent days:

Northern Cairngorms Blog & Mountain Info » Good snow cover – whiteout today – clear Monday.

NCAIRNGORMSBLOG.SAIS.GOV.UK

 

 

[Ciarán]

 Paul I'm talking about the bigger picture. The Lecht almost had to shut down completely last year due to woeful conditions, they only managed to stay open because of public donations allowing for more widespread artificial snowmaking.

With recent winters being southwesterly or Westerly dominated, the already mild direction combined with the fact many Cairngorm resorts are leeward of higher ground to the south and West, you do wonder if foehn and mild airmass advection will be their end.

[Paul]

Thing is, even last winter, Cairngorm often had pretty decent snow up at the top (if only the train had been running to get people up there!). The Lecht is lower and it's certainly been a tough time for them, as it has at Nevis who have recently said they're only going to open from Feb (unless they have exceptional conditions in the meantime). I think Glencoe did ok last year. 

Obviously with climate change, there's no doubt winter snow cover is becoming less reliable. But, for now at least I think it's still viable and the resorts are making efforts to do more year round trade with things like mountain biking and various other on mountain activities. So, I'd not write them off yet!

[johncam]

 Paul Can't see it getting any better in the future as clinate change as you say having a bigger impact. Warm sst in the Atlantic are making polar and returning polar airmasses freezing levels higher and therefore any snow that falls isn't deep enough to survive the milder spells as happened more often in the past.

[jellybaby1969]

Season never really gets started until later in January....better skiing march / April than December.

[swfc-ocs]

The Scottish  ski area is not immune from gw but anything from the wnw will give copious  snow even at average 850s.its just the synoptic  set up imo

[Paul]

It's worth remembering that if Covid lockdowns hadn't been ongoing in 2021, then it would have been a fantastic season with deep, long lived snow cover. So, while difficult seasons are more common and the freeze/thaw cycle more frequent and hardcore, very good seasons are still possible as well. 

[Snowandrocks]

As others have said, it's far too early - Scotland's ski season typically runs from around Christmas through to April or even May with the best conditions often found well into spring. 

The Lecht have particularly struggled thanks to the lunacy of the covid restrictions keeping them closed during weeks of perfect conditions during lock down. I can't think of many activities more covid safe than skiing on a wind swept Scottish hillside, even if it did mean that the cafés had to be takeaway only. 

The model of the Scottish Ski industry has always been based on making lots of money during good spells to ride out the poorer years. Those poorer years are also nothing new, one of the very first ski resorts in Scotland, just outside Braemar actually closed because of a run of near snow less winters in the early 60s.

Oddly, there has been plenty of snow here in Aberdeenshire over the past few winters with lots of good XC skiing in the forests around us when things were pretty thin on the hills further inland. 

[Metwatch]

There's a decent snow pack above 500-600m at the moment following storm Darragh, but it may melt quite a bit given the milder outlook next week.

2 of my friends visited the Cairngorms and reached the summit last February and it was very poor for snowcover, no surprise though given February was record breakingly mild.

However 2021 was good with some fresh snow even in May 2021... it can still be quite variable year - year, but I think there has been a decrease on the duration of lasting deeper snow cover in recent decades given winters have become milder. The ski resorts can survive as even in summer there are plenty of things to do to bring income to businesses; mountain biking, cable cars, trains, hiking, cafes etc.

Edited December 11, 2024 by Metwatch

[al78]

Skiing is somewhat marginal in Scotland anyway, especially at the Lecht which has the lowest altitude of all the ski resorts.

[skifreak]

Last winter there was for much of the season more snow on Aonach Mor, than on Meall a' Bhuiridh. 

Despite that, no matter what happens from here on in this season, even if Glencoe were to not ski again this winter, Glencoe has already had more days skiing and more skiers than Nevis Range had the whole of last season.

The uncomfortable facts for certain organisations is that this  was not down to climate or snow cover.

[Norrance]

The resorts need only average temperatures or even just above. However apart from 2021 and 2018 recent winters have had far too many very mild periods which destroyed any bases that had built up. One stat that amazed me was that in 2015 which had deep cover on the ski runs and a huge number of snow patches that lasted until the following winter had temperatures around 1 degree above average over the while winter. However apart from a brief warm spell in late December temps were fairly steady. The following winter had exactly the same temperature average over the winter but was pretty much a disaster for both skiing and snow patches as the very warm spells destroyed any base that built up in the colder spells. A lot depends on wind direction too.

 

[Norrance]

 al78 One advantage the Lecht has though is that it does not need as much of a base as it is pretty much grass underneath while others are on heather or actually above burns or rocks.

[Harry233]

The ski season never really gets going until January and it usually lasts until April. Plus that weather station is at the base of the Cairngorm. Higher up it’s far colder. This was the scene at Glenshee on the 29th December last year in what was a rather mild month for Scotland. Main road is clear but still a very good covering on the tops and this was at base.

[dryfie]

 Harry233 Sorry, but is a station height of 1237m really the base of Cairngorm?

[Harry233]

 dryfie no but it’s not the highest point

[johncam]

Think this season is/ will be a struggle,  output not great.

[tasty_snacks]

I found myself wondering this recently whilst contemplating a half term trip to Scotland.

If the Scottish ski industry is well versed in and adapted to a feast and famine model as suggested by those above, would the climate emergency actually represent an opportunity? A preponderance of Westerlies may bring higher average temperatures, but also greater snow depths (even if more fleeting)?

Edited December 20, 2024 by tasty_snacks

[trickydicky]

 al78 The Lecht must have one of the lowest altitudes of any ski resort/area anywhere in the world. Can only think of ones in Lapland that are similar, but I could be wrong. 

[Sceptical]

 johncam

I suspect the Lecht might not survive another poor season.

[johncam]

 Sceptical sad times