Wintry festive periods - a dying trend?

[StretfordEnd1996]

I don't think I've ever started my own thread in my 10 year + Netweather history so here goes! 

Following on from Damianslaw's great thread on Xmas memories, I thought I'd drill into further detail on how common a wintry period has been in the last 30 years or so during this period.

From around 1993-2010, a 17 year period, we received a large number of milder Winters yet a very notable bunch of them always seemed to contain a wintry spell somewhere within or around the Festive week, i.e. 23rd Dec ish to 5th January. (I have gone to 5th January as kids often still of school at that time, 12 days of Xmas and all that). There's a lot more in this list than many people may think. A wintry spell though could be anything from a notable deeper cold spell to a brief NWly blast. 

Note I've started at 1993 as that year did experience a wintry blast so it felt right to start somewhere, and prior to 1993 I believe you have to go back a way to find the next example.

1993 - NWly winds around the 23rd - 26th brought a White Xmas for some, especially high ground North
1994 - nothing of note
1995 - doesn't need much explaining this one as it's one of the more famous wintry spells in what was a cold Winter, very cold at times during Festive week with heavy snowfall in places, and a White Xmas for some.
1996 - in this very front loaded Winter we had a very cold period from around 28th well into the New Year, some very deep cold just after NY. On the dry side but snowy at times for some especially NYE. 
1997 - nothing of note though some cold zonality at times
1998 - nothing of note
1999 - nothing of note beyond 20th or so although the most wintry spell of this mild Winter was in the week preceding the Festive week with snowfall for some, so a close one.
2000 - A cold Winter for some especially N and a very wintry spell for some just after Xmas around the NY period. 
2001 - Very akin to the previous year, the sole wintry spell of this mild Winter coming during the festive week getting very cold at times, White Xmas for some.
2002 - A mild Winter with cold weather centred in January but the first of these cold spells did arrive just after the NY period before 6th Jan with snowfall for some.
2003 - Brief but potent wintry blasts just before (around 22nd) Xmas and around 30th - 31st, NYE in particular a very snowy one for high ground North
2004 - A NW'ly blast falling right on Xmas Day itself bringing a true white Xmas for mostly NW/N areas especially high ground
2005 - A coolish but dry Winter and that was the case in the festive week, some lucky places did get some heavy snowfall from weak Ely winds throughout this period, especially E
2006 - nothing of note  - though 23rd to 26th ish did at least have a dominating UK high, 24th and 25th actually had a deep frost for some and somewhat coolish.
2007 - nothing of note, although I think I'm right in saying we were extremely close to tapping into some freezing E winds but it went to pot at last minute, so we were close
2008 - a cold Winter especially Jan/Feb but festive period was massively HP dominated sitting over and to the north of us, very dry but very chilly, limited snow for the odd few
2009 - we all know about this one, extreme wintry weather in the week prior to Xmas Day, a slight thaw thereafter for most but intense cold weather immediately returned in NY. 
2010 - another that doesn't need explaining. Festive period itself was cold but dry for most, but a substantial amount of the country had notable snow lying during the period.

But then... it all seems to just stop there. Since 2010 we've lacked this continuous trend of wintry spells of varying degree in this period. The only years since then which have had something are

2014 - A fairly brief NW'ly / Nly 26th to 29th or so bringing localised snowfall for some especially N
2017 - Some weak NWly regimes throughout the period bringing temporary snowfall for some but nothing notable or organised
2020 - Probably the best festive period since 2010 for wintry stuff with snowfall for some even lower areas at times and pretty chilly at times, not a classic but decent for this day and age.

It's quite a contrast really. 90s and 00s often considered a mild poor period for Winters similar to post 2013 but the amount that had something over the festive period is pretty notable to me. Yes okay plenty of these in the list above did not deliver for everyone, and as is often the case, low ground, S areas may of missed out but still, post 2010 we've had absolutely nothing of the sort of this continuous run. 

[Weather-history]

 StretfordEnd1996

 

You missed the New Year arctic blast at the end of 1994 into the start of 1995. 

[StretfordEnd1996]

 Weather-history Thank you mate, I shall not edit my post, will leave your comment as the correction! My knowledge of 1990s rely on research too young to remember. 

[sundog]

This is something I've often thought about. Growing up in the 80s there wasn't much in the way of festive weather around Christmas.  But from around the mid 90s to 2010 festive weather became more common for whatever reason.  It feels like it was all like a build up to the big one in 2010 . Then the bubble burst thereafter. 

[StretfordEnd1996]

 sundog Hi mate yes completely agree. My 80s knowledge pretty low but I do know of a lack of wintry festive periods.

[reef]

I think it is just a symptom of the declining snowfall in general. Here for example, the only real snow events in the last 20 years are December 2005, 2009 and 2010. January 2010 and 2013. February 2009, 2012 and 2021. That's pretty much just 8 decent snow events in 20 years now. With those odds, its quite unlikely it'll happen to time over the festive period.

Things have definitely gotten worse since 2010 though. Prior to 2010, only two years had seen no lying snow here at 0900 (1989 and 1992). Since 2010, there has already been four (2011, 2014, 2016, 2020) and probably a fifth this year (though there's still time at least).

[Summer8906]

Going back pre-1993 to the years I remember (Dec year). "Hit" years bolded. Partial "hit" years italicised.

1992 - had weather which I'd consider wintry, i.e. anticyclonic, frosty, sunshine or fog, from around the 21st to 3rd Jan

1991 - following frosty anticyclonic earlier in Dec,  very mild albeit dry weather throughout

1990 - following notable cold with snow for some early in Dec,  mild, wet and windy throughout

1989 - the first 10 days of Dec provided cold and frost but the 12th Dec onwards, for the rest of the winter, had mild weather of one kind or another

1988 - mild and dull; dry. Last cold weather of note was Nov

1987 - extremely mild, drizzly or very wet. Apparently cold weather early Dec

1986 - zonal, mild, wet, windy; turned colder around 5th Jan but just misses festive period

1985 - short cold spells but generally wet/unsettled, not especially mild though

1984 - partial hit. End of December 1984 average temps with mix of damp and chilly sunny spells. Sunny, dry and cold from 31 Dec onwards. Snowy arrived on Jan 6

1983 - extremely mild. Dry in late Dec; wet in early Jan

1982 - very mild and largely dry

1981 - cold until Boxing Day, becoming mild

1980 - dry and mild

1979 - unsettled, sometimes wet, but on the cold side. Partial hit

So not a great record in the 80s and early 90s, either!

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

During the past century, there were two main periods when cold snowy weather recurred a lot between around 23 December and 5 January - between 1961 and 1970 when it happened nearly every year, and between 1993 and 2010. The latter spell was quite remarkable as it happened despite the warming trend. In both cases it was linked with frequent Greenland blocking around the Christmas/New year period - there were certain exceptions such as Christmas 1970 which had a Scandinavian blocking high, but most often it was via a Greenland block.

Outside of those periods, the festive period has been predominantly mild and changeable - here I mean 1939-1960, 1971-1992, and 2011 onwards. However, while cold snowy spells were relatively few and far between, in the earlier two periods, they were more frequent and more substantial than we've seen recently, which reflects the general warming trend. 

For example, in the 1950s, we had snowy weather shortly before Christmas in 1950, and a white Christmas for some in 1956. There were wintry spells at some point in the first week of January in 1951, 1955, 1958 and 1959. I'm not as knowledgeable about the period during the 1940s but I know that there was a cold snowy spell leading up to Christmas 1938 via a Scandinavian high with many areas retaining lying snow through to Christmas Day that year.

In the period 1971-1992, there was a bit of snow for some near the end of December 1971. The end of December 1976 was snowy for some, New Year's Eve 1978 was famously very cold and snowy, and some areas had a bit of snow either side of Christmas Day 1979. December 1981 saw cold snowy weather persist until just after Christmas. Decembers 1982 and 1986 had snow for some around 22 December although it melted by Christmas Day. 3 January 1984 had blizzards and thundersnow in parts of the north. And both 1984 and 1985 had quite intense post-Christmas cold spells, with snow for some in the case of 1985. The end of December 1990 was very snowy in northern Scotland, and wintry showers fell in most regions on 27 December. And Christmas-New Year 1992, although not snowy, was very cold for many of us, and there was some frontal snow on 3 January 1993 as milder air pushed in.

In more recent times we have had some cold snowy weather during the period - 26/27 December 2014 especially for parts of the Midlands and Yorkshire, 29 December 2017 in the north, and repeated marginal rain/sleet/snow events in late December/early January 2020/21, but generally less than we saw in those milder periods through the 1940s/50s and 1970s/1980s. I also recall some cold bright frosty weather, mainly for the southern half of Britain, in late December 2016, but no snow. 1 January 2017 had a northerly but it only gave rain and sleet showers.

The recent loss of wintry festive periods is partly down to the climatic warming trend and partly down to one of those climatic quirks where Greenland blocking highs were unusually frequent during the festive period between 1993 and 2010, and have since returned to 1970s/1980s levels.

Edited December 11, 2024 by Thundery wintry showers

[Rob 79812010]

 Summer8906 I would echo that.  In Manchester it would be hard to argue that they're a dying trend as they were never really there to start with. 1970 and 2004 and of course 2009 and 2010. I'm sure we had a week of what I thought were easterly snow showers around New year in 2000 or maybe 2001 but I struggle to find much about it

[danm]

1996, 2010, 2022 (mid December in 2022). 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2020 into 2021, tier 3, then tier 4, then lockdown, quite decent snow late Dec, 28th and 29th, then more snow on 2nd Jan, before less cold air spread in from the east on 4th Jan

[Summer8906]

An interesting variant on this topic is just how often both New Year's Eve and New Year's Day have been mild with at least some rain. Going back, this has been the case for a clear majority of years:

2023/24 - mild and wet both days

2022/23 - mild and wet/damp both days

2021/22 - mild and damp both days but eastern areas missed rain?

2020/21 - cold both days

2019/20 - dry, mild and dull on New Year's Eve; mild and dull with drizzle or light rain on New Year's Day

2018/19 - dry mild and dull 31st becoming dry, mild but bright on 1st Jan

2017/18 - mild with some rain both days

2016/17 - mild and dry 31st, wet but rather cold 1st

2015/16 - mild dull and wet both days

2014/15 - dry and mild 31st, wet and mild 1st

2013/14 - mild dull and wet both days

2012/13 - mild, dull and damp 31st; drier and brighter 1st with just isolated showers

2011/12 - mild dull and damp both days

So for the past 13 years, 7 have been mild, dull and damp on both days, and an additional 3 have been mild, dull and damp on one of the two days. Furthermore a further year had rain with colder temps on one day, so just two have been mostly dry both days.

Going back further:

2010/11 - cold both days

2009/10 - cold both days

2008/09 - cold both days

2007/08 - mild, dull and damp both days

2006/07 - mild, dull and damp both days

2005/06 - mild, dull and damp both days

2004/05 - mild and dry 31st with some rain 1st

2003/04 - cold with a thaw moving in 31st, mild and damp 1st

2002/03 - cold with a thaw 31st, unsettled 1st

2001/02  - cold and sunny both days

2000/01 - cold with a thaw 31st, unsettled 1st

1999/2000 - mild, dry and dull. Some drizzle at some point overnight

1998/99 - mild, dull and damp both days

1997/98 - mild, damp and unsettled both days

1996/97 - cold both days

1995/96 - average temps, dull and damp both days

1994/95 - average temps and showers 31st; cold with wintry showers 1st

1993/94 - mild and unsettled both days

1992/93 - cold with fog both days

1991/92 - mild and dry both days

1990/91 - fairly mild and unsettled both days

1989/90 mild; dull and dry 31st; rain later 1st

1988/89 - dry and dull with temps close to average both days

1987/88 - mild and unsettled both days

1986/87 - unsettled and fairly mild both days

1985/86 - unsettled with average temps both days

1984/85 - cold and bright both days

That's as far back as I can clearly remember for the two days. Less frequent from 1984/85 - 2010/11 with just 9 years with both days mild and unsettled in this period, albeit with a further 7 somewhat unsettled on at least one day.

Nonetheless it does appear that new year weather has deteriorated from 2011/12 onward.

[LetItSnow]

4 hours ago, sundog said:

This is something I've often thought about. Growing up in the 80s there wasn't much in the way of festive weather around Christmas.

It's quite ironic that despite being a great decade for cold, the Decembers of the 1980s ran exceptionally mild. The average from 1980-1989 is 5.0, but remove 1981 and it's 5.6. The decade used  up all its December cold in 1981.

11 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

mild and damp both days but eastern areas missed rain?

I do remember cloud and outbreaks of rain on NYD 2022. A strange day with it being a typical mild wet winter day but with temperatures around 16C. 

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow Indeed, December 1990 was the first seasonal December since 1981.

I suppose you can count 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2022 as partly-seasonal but it's been a good while now since we've had a December entirely free of long spells of unseasonably mild weather.

Edited December 11, 2024 by Summer8906

[Harry233]

I can recall quite a few wintry spells around Christmas time, more especially the period between Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. However as far as a white Christmas goes they are quite rare. Only Christmas Day’s I can recall snow falling/lying were 2000, 2004, 2009 and 2010. 

December 2023 - Had a cold snap and snowfall between the 27th-30th.

December 2022 - Had a cold snap starting on Boxing Day and snowfall continued into January 2023

December 2020 - Had a very cold end to the year although there was no snow and that continued well into January. January 2021 was a very cold month here.

December 2017 - Had a cold snap between Christmas and new year.

December 2014 - Had a brief cold snap over the 26th/27th the only cold snap of all of 2014.

December 2009/2010 - Say no more

December 2004 - White Christmas with snow showers but a mild month overall 

December 2000 - A very cold and snowy spell started just before Christmas Day and continued right into new year.

 

December 1995 would be another honorable mention to with very cold and snowy weather during the Christmas period.

[Harry233]

 Summer8906 December 2022 was probably the first December since 2010 that actually felt like a proper winter month. I don’t remember any mild spells of weather only the occasional milder day. December this year though so far has been rather cold so far though.

[damianslaw]

 Harry233 December 2022 was exceptionally mild from the 18th onwards to the end, nothing cold, surprised you mention no mild weather. 

[MP-R]

 Summer8906 What was thawing in December 2002? The final ten days were a complete mild rainfest apart from Christmas Day itself.

[Don]

 Harry233 December 2017 was pretty wintry with a significant snowfall for many around the 9th/10th and the Christmas to New Year period was pretty cold with a little snow for some.

[Harry233]

 damianslaw it was milder but it didn’t last long up here and compared to other December’s I wouldn’t of said it was anything mild I recorded a maximum all month of 10.8.C which isn’t anything too mild. The cold weather returned on Boxing Day here and we had some quite heavy snow on the 27th that lasted into January. December 2022 was around 2.5.C colder here than average. 

 Don I remember that spell well. I had no snow during the first spell but remember it being exceptionally cold. Think we had a maxima of -3.C on the 10th. The 27th/28th that year was especially cold I remember as well. We had a little snow then but it didn’t last 

[damianslaw]

 Harry233 Ok, I've just looked at the weather archive charts and it appears just north of the central belt tugged some colder uppers from Boxing Day to New Years Eve, a very fine line mind.. just a bit further south in S Scotland it stayed mild throughout. 

[Summer8906]

 MP-R Maybe thaw was the wrong word, over-zealous copy-pasting from the previous year 03/04. I meant "mildening": I was up north at the end of 2002 and remember New Year's Eve being cold and dull before rain arrived in the evening and led to a temp rise (temporary as it happened as the cold air was back on the 3rd).

I thought Christmas Day 2002 was exceptionally mild but it's possible I've got mixed up with another year. A lot of Christmas Days all merge into one as the weather is generally the same most years: mild, dull and damp.

Being cynical here, so much so that it wouldn't surprise me if the mean temp for Christmas Day isn't a lot lower than the mean temp for Easter Day. A stereotypical Christmas Day in my mind might have max 11C, min 8C; a stereotypical Easter Day maybe max 14C, min 6C. This isn't based on actual stats, but vague and perhaps inaccurate memories.

Edited December 12, 2024 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

20 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I thought Christmas Day 2002 was exceptionally mild

It was. I went for a walk with family in the morning and it was sunny and positively warm. Cloud and rain arrived late afternoon and Boxing Day was slightly less mild but damp.

December 30th and January 01st were absolute washouts but as you say the cold air swooped south on the 03rd and by the 04th it was snowing!

[Harry233]

 damianslaw that’s correct, we were just north of the line

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

It was. I went for a walk with family in the morning and it was sunny and positively warm. Cloud and rain arrived late afternoon and Boxing Day was slightly less mild but damp.

Ah ok, when you said Christmas Day was the exception to mild, dull and wet I naturally assumed dry and cold!