Wintry festive periods - a dying trend?

[Thundery wintry showers]

 Rob 79812010 The Manchester area was affected by significant snow post-Christmas in both 2000 and 2001 - on 27-28 December 2000 and 29-30 December 2001, and in both cases it stuck around for a while at Ringway (Manchester Airport). Manchester Airport also had a thin covering from the polar low on Christmas Eve 1995 and from the easterly on 30/31 December 1997. There was also wet snow on Christmas Day 1993 but it generally didn't settle on low ground. The region may well have largely missed out on the festive snowfalls of the 1960s apart from post-Christmas 1962 though.

[A Face like Thunder]

23 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

1981 - cold until Boxing Day, becoming mild

No disrespect, but Christmas 1981 has to be a 'hit' in my book. As TWS mentions, CD was cold, with quite thick snow on the ground, and the mild follow-up was a bit later than Boxing Day where I lived in Surrey. Of all the festive periods I remember, this has to be the one I remember most from the 20th century, along with 1970 which was a true White Christmas. 

[Summer8906]

 MP-R Looking at Christmas Day 2002 it looks like there were cold uppers, doesn't look like an especially mild airmass:

Reanalysis archives

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

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Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

 

Surprised that it was both extremely mild and sunny. I'd expect it to be only mildish on that chart (as it looks like rPm and not Tm), and with the low uppers and wind direction, I'd also expect coastal convection streaming far inland with much cloud and occasional showers.

Edited December 12, 2024 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 A Face like Thunder Basing it partly on the synoptic charts as I can't remember the exact day of the mildening, but definitely remember being out in fairly mild conditions around the 27th/28th. The synoptic charts suggest some southwest in the wind by the 27th but less so further north.

[MP-R]

 Summer8906 Not uncommon following a few days of higher uppers and mild weather, especially accompanied by sunshine. 

[Thundery wintry showers]

Christmas Day 2002 was in many ways similar to Christmas Day 1987 which has come up a few times recently - not exceptionally mild, but a one-off sunny and fairly mild day via returning polar maritime air during what was otherwise a very dull spell, and not very windy, so it felt warm in the sun.

It might not have been sunny everywhere, but I spent Christmas 2002 up in South Tyneside and I recall that Christmas Day had some patchy fog but overall was quite a sunny day up there as well, and it stood out because there was very little or no sun on the other days from 20-30 December inclusive.

 

Edited December 12, 2024 by Thundery wintry showers

[Rob 79812010]

 Thundery wintry showers Yes, I recall the 1993 one now! And how could I forget 79 but it was after new uear though I think. Can I ask you is a Polar low polar maritime or Arctic maritime? The 63 boxing day is described as a low moving south. They dont normally seem to bring widespread snow?? Often coastal affairs

[Weather-history]

 Rob 79812010

Greater Manchester festive wintry spells or wintry precipitation falling since 1984, the one's that I have experienced/recall.

1985: Very cold between Christmas and New Year. Snow flurries the morn of 30th December

1993: Snowed Christmas morning but never stuck.  There was a snowfall over higher ground of Greater Manchester during New Year's eve morning and then a snowfall during the night of New Year's Eve at all levels. White start to 1994

1994: Snow fell New Year's Eve and there were snow showers coming off the Irish Sea on New Year's morning.

1995: Wintry mix fell Christmas Eve and snow fell overnight leading to snow on ground for Christmas Day. Very cold up to New Year's Eve. A little bit of snow fell later on 30th December

 1996: Snowed Boxing Day night with a covering.  Melted as rain fell during early hours. Snow showers on the 30th December and 31st December, by New Year's Eve night it was a snow streamer coming off the North Sea. A white New Year

1999: a bit of sleet in the showers on Christmas Day

2000: Snow flurries on Christmas Day and a big snowfall overnight 27th/28th December.  A wet snow breakdown on New Year's Eve

2001: Snow showers on Boxing Day and snow showers on the night of 29th/30th December.  A snow cover into the New Year

2004:  Organised snow shower band came through Christmas Day evening giving a covering.

2005:  a few snow flurries made it over the Pennines on the 27th December, some snow on the breakdown. 

2009/2010:  snow on the ground but no snow fell 

2014:  rain turned to snow in some parts on Boxing Day evening as it did here

2017:  Recall large wet snow flakes falling between Christmas and New Year

2020: Snow flakes fell Christmas Day and a band of snow affected SW parts of Greater Manchester early on 28th December. Snow Showers early on New Year's Eve.

Edited December 13, 2024 by Weather-history

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

1993: Snowed Christmas morning but never stuck.  There was a snowfall over higher ground of Greater Manchester during New Year's eve morning and then a snowfall during the night of New Year's Eve at all levels. White start to 1994

Interesting you got snow on New Years Eve 1993, down here it was just mild westerly conditions though there was a frost on New Year's Day morning (before turning mild and wet again later).

 

Edited December 13, 2024 by Summer8906

[Thundery wintry showers]

 Rob 79812010 Polar lows are most often arctic maritime although I think they've been known in polar maritime air masses as well if they are particularly cold. The extent to which they bring widespread snowfall depends on their track - some mainly hit coastal areas but some track across the country and bring widespread snow as on Christmas Eve 1995 and 27/28 December 2000.

[Methuselah]

 Thundery wintry showers

The only other one I can recall was in February 1969; the temperature must have dropped from +2 to -5C in a matter of minutes.

[lassie23]

the last time it snowed imby on Jesus birthday was in 1906

[cheeky_monkey]

the only true white Xmas i have experienced in the UK was 1981..which technically wasn't a white Xmas according to the met office boffins..some how the big knobs in the meteorological world got round the table and thrashed out that having a sleety/snow shower for 2 seconds on the day technically is 

[A Face like Thunder]

1970 was the only White Christmas of any note that I can remember and that was in Surrey. Philip Eden reported, '1970 - 25th - 28th December - heavy snow - snow fell widely over the Christmas holiday, seriously disrupting transport. Some 20-25cm accumulated in east and north Kent, and in upland parts of north-east England'.  

[Rob 79812010]

 Weather-history Great memories of Manchester festive periods 

 Thundery wintry showers Thanks for the explanation 

[carinthian]

Pre - Christmas cold spell 2010. Picture of frozen River Wharfe, Bolton Abbey , near Skipton. The last time there was skating on the river. Ice was 3 inches thick.

C

[Summer8906]

 A Face like Thunder Looks like quite a frontloaded winter, perhaps not unlike 2001/02 ?

December 1970 as a whole looks very anticyclonic, alternating mild and cold but notably cold for the last week or so. Looks like a westward moving cold pool in an easterly was responsible for all that snow. The month does look somewhat like December 2001 from the charts, but probably a little milder.

January 1971 looks very similar to January 2002 from the synoptic charts; short cold anticyclonic spell, becoming very mild (SSW-ly winds) but fairly anticyclonic a few days later, then progressively more unsettled and cyclonic as the month progressed. Unlike 2002 however, it did end with a short northerly.

In fact three successive years (1969-71) ended with an easterly, the 60s going out in typical-for-the-decade style. Unfortunately all three following Januaries featured a fairly quick shift to mild and mostly wet, with 1970 and 1972 in particular featuring a particularly bad pattern of Atlantic lows getting stuck over the UK by blocking further east.

Edited December 13, 2024 by Summer8906

[damianslaw]

True white christmas's here include 1993, I think we had a few snow showers early in the day, 2001 I remember a light snow flurry or two very late in the day, 2004 notably it snowed for much of the day, very light, about a 1-2 inch cover, 2010, a 1.5 inch cover from an hour and half snowfall late morning.

We may have squeezed a light flurry very early hours of 2006 surprisingly and very late in 2017. 

They are very few and far between. 

Edited December 13, 2024 by damianslaw

[Summer of 95]

Six out of eight winters between 1994/5 and 2001/2, and eight out of twelve between 1994/5 and 2005/6,  had lying snow here at some point between 25 Dec and 6 Jan

1994/5- 2cm snow in afternoon New Years Day, lay until Jan 4th

1995/6- the pre-Christmas snow all melted on the 23rd, but 4cm fell on Dec 30th (here was one of the few places that actually got the forecast snow, for a change) and lasted until overnight 1/2 Jan

1996-7- snow cover from 30 Dec until 8 Jan, max depth 8cm

1997-8- even this one sneaked in, 1cm snow fell on afternoon of Jan 5th and was still there the next day

2000-1- snow cover from 28-31 Dec, only 2cm but still the longest lasting snow cover since 1997. 

2001-2- 2cm fell on 30th Dec and lay until 5 Jan, dropped to -12 overnight 1st/2nd, this winter was actually doing quite well up to and including this ...

(2003-4 nothing: I distinctly remember snow being forecast for overnight 31 Dec-1 Jan, the 30-31st were cold and frosty but it all fell as rain)

2004-5- the only one where it actually fell and settled on Christmas Day, the main band of snow came about 8pm and it lasted till the 27th

2005-6- a slight cover on the 28th but the breakdown on 29-30th was a letdown, a couple of hours of light snow that turned to rain overnight when we were expecting to wake up to a good cover.

In the following eight winters it happened three times (in consecutive years, 08/09 to 10/11)

In the last 10 winters it's also only happened three times (14/15, 17/18, 20/21), making 6/18 compared to the 6/8 in the 90s-early 00s, so a perception that "festive season snow" has become rarer would certainly be justified taking the last 30 years as the benchmark. Although I don't believe the period between 1981 and the early 90s was much if at all better, certainly the late 80s through to 92-3 were completely lacking in snow at this time.

Edited December 14, 2024 by Summer of 95

[Summer8906]

For a seasonal Twelve Days, it looks like nothing would beat 1970/71. A classic White Christmas, albeit in an unremarkable winter overall.

8 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

Although I don't believe the period between 1981 and the early 90s was much if at all better,

It wasn't. From memory (NW Sussex/E Hampshire/SW Surrey in all cases):

1982/3 - mild throughout but largely dry

1983/4 - mild or very mild throughout, dry end to Dec, wet start to Jan

1984/5 - more seasonal at least. Average temps with mixed conditions but a good few coldish sunny days end Dec, cold and sunny start to Jan, snow fell on 6th

1985/6 - average temperatures and unsettled, occasional cold days

1986/7 - mild and wet becoming dry and coldish just before Twelfth Night though the real cold was post-6th

1987/8 - extremely mild. Drizzly end to 1987 but seriously wet start to 1988.

1988/9 - dry and mild, occasional average days (e.g. 1st)

1989/90 - mild or very mild, dry end to Dec, occasional rain in early Jan

1990/1 - extremely unsettled, wet and windy, less mild than the previous three years at least

1991/2 - much of Dec and Jan was cold and frosty but this period was mild or very mild, but dry.

The 80s, more than any other time, was the period when the saying "as the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger" held true. December was generally mild and snowless but January and February were often seasonal. These days it seems to be February which has the lowest chance of all of any seasonal weather.

 

Edited December 14, 2024 by Summer8906

[SqueakheartLW]

If anything from around 1 week before the 25th up to 2 weeks after count then for me the following were wintry from memory

1993 - A light dusting of snow on the ground on the actual day. No memory of any other snow in the period 18th December to 7th January.

1994 - No snow on the day but apparently a new year northerly. Don't remember this one. Maybe missed out on the snow.

1995 - A little bit of snow on Boxing Day. Other than that the only other bit was the week before Christmas week. Cold week from Christmas till New Year.

1996 - No snow the week before but a few chilly days. The main snowy period came between Boxing Day night and New Year's Day with about 8 inches in total. Cold continued on till end of the festive period.

1997 - The sole snow event of December 1997 for me almost makes it into the festive period but on the 17th which is just outside what I'm calling the festive period but I'll take it since the main period was devoid of any snow or cold.

1998 - A little snow on 20th and 21st December. Otherwise nothing.

1999 - Pre Christmas Day was the main action here and stretching a little out of the week before limit gives snow on the 14th, 15th and 21st December 1999. Post Christmas was just generally mild and at times wet.

2000 - Perfectly timed cold and snowy spell that started Christmas Eve night and ended New Year's Eve night. Saw snow on 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th, 29th and 31st December.

2001 - A more extended period of cold and a bit of snow too. The colder weather really ran from 15th December to 5th January but waxed and wained throughout with snow on 22nd and 30th December.

2002 - Only snow for me was in the New Year from 3rd January onwards during the festive period.

2003 - Cold on 22nd with a little snow in the evening. More cold and a little sn9w around New Year otherwise nothing.

2004 - Cold and dry Christmas Day, missed out on the snow.

2005 - Snowy just after Boxing Day up to the 30th.

2006 - Frost and freezing fog pre Christmas otherwise mild.

2007 - A short easterly early in New Year otherwise nothing.

2008 - No snow but generally cold and dry.

2009 - Cold and snowy in the week before Christmas. Less cold between Christmas and New Year before colder again in New Year with more snow.

2010 - Very cold pre Christmas and up to Boxing Day. Less cold after that and further snow on 4th January as well.

2011, 2012, 2013 - Devoid of snow

2014 - Boxing Day snow event, otherwise nothing.

2015 to 2019 - Devoid of snow

2020 - A bit of snow on Christmas Eve as well as 2nd January.

2021 to 2023 - Devoid of snow

 

2024 - ???????     Wonder if we can break the poor trend since 2010 here

Edited December 14, 2024 by SqueakheartLW

[TheOgre]

IMBY -

White Christmas

Near White Christmas

2009 - don’t really remember but I’ve seen old family photos of patchy snow on the ground on Christmas Day

2010 - this was obviously the classic. Thick frozen snow and sunny on Christmas Day. I think we had heavy snowfall a few days before.

2014 - snowy Boxing Day night and remained on the ground until New Years Eve.

2020 - heavy snow on 29 December and remained on the ground into the new year with further light snow on 2/3 January 2021.

And that’s your lot. I’d love to see a 2010 style one again one day.

[Summer8906]

I'd like to live through a 1970 repeat. Looks like this was by far the best event of recent times for the actual 12 days. The winter overall was nothing special but for a season conforming to the romantic weather ideal, it must surely be the winner.

[AderynCoch]

 carinthian Out of interest, I wonder how cold it would have to be to freeze the infamous Strid.

[B87]

I get the feeling that Christmas day here is very often colder than the December average.

Edited December 14, 2024 by B87