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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted (edited)

(a) January CET forecast contest

__ __ averages and extremes __ __

(including all CET values since 1981)

bold type for warmest 14 italic type middle 16 and underlined type coldest 14. 

(note all temps converted to v2.1.0 in this report, ties are in one decimal.

 

12.7 .. warmest daily CET mean (1st, 2022)

 7.6 ... warmest January (1916)

 7.3 ... tied second warmest (1796 & 1921)

 7.1 ... tied fourth warmest (1834, 2007)
 7.0 ... 
 6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733)
 6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975)
 6.7 ... tied eighth warmest (19832008.)
 6.6 ... tenth warmest (1898.)
 6.5 ... tied 11th warmest (1686, 1990, 2020)
 6.4 ... tied 14th warmest (1736, 1875, 1884)
 6.3 ... tied 17th warmest (1846, 1932)
 6.2 ... 19th warmest (1737)
 6.1 ... 20th warmest (1989)
 
 6.0 ... three tied for 21th warmest (1682, 1708, 2005)
 5.9 ... four tied for 24th warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993)
 5.8 ... four tied for 28th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944, 2014)
 5.7 ..  tied 32nd warmest (1890, 1938.) 
 5.6 .. 1999, 2012, 2016
 5.5 .. 2002
 5.4 .. 2018
 5.3 .. 19881994

 5.2 .. 2004, 2023
 5.1 .. 1998

 5.0 .. most recent 1711
 4.9 .. 1981, 2000
 4.8 .. 1995, 2024 ... --- average 2001-2024 --- (also 1988-2017,1989-2018)

 4.7 .. 2022 ... --- average 1991-2020 ---  ---average 1995-2024 ---

... ... (4.72) is not the highest 30-yr average (warmest 2 dec 1989-2018, 4.79)

 4.6 .. most recent 1927 ... only the 30-yr avg twice (v2.0), 1985-2014, 1986-2015

 4.5 .. 2003, 2006, 2015 ... --- average 1981-2010 ---- (4.46) 

 4.4 .. most recent 1968

 4.3 .. 1996
 4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 ----- ... most recent 1950
 4.1 .. 20172019

 4.0 .. most recent 1843
 3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ---- and also 1984
 3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 ---- and also 2011
 3.7 .. 1992
 3.6 .. 2013
 3.5 .. 1986 ... the 30-yr average as recently as 1958-87 (lowest since 3.3 1941-70)
 3.4 .. most recent 1964
 3.3 .. 19912021 --- average of all years 1659-2024 --- 
 3.2 .. 2001

 3.1 .. 2009 ... --- average 1939-1968 --- (lowest Jan 30-year average since 1838-1867)
 3.0 .. --- average 1801-1900 ---- ... most recent 1719
 2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ---- ... most recent 1966
 2.8 .. most recent 1977
 2.7 .. 1982
 2.6 .. --- average 1659-1700 --- ... most recent 1955
 2.5 .. most recent 1908
 2.4 .. 1997 and --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
 2.3 .. most recent 1980
 2.2 .. most recent 1947
 2.1 .. most recent 1886

 2.0 ... --- average 1766 to 1795 --- coldest 30-year average ... most recent 1809
 1.9 ... most recent 1813
 1.8 ... most recent 1803
 1.7 ... most recent 1861
 1.6 ... most recent 1959
 1.5 ... 2010
 1.4 ... most recent (only case) 1744
 1.3 ... most recent 1929
 1.2 ... most recent 1867
 1.1 ... most recent 1841
 1.0 ... most recent 1771
 0.9 ... tied 43rd coldest (1880, 1942, 1985)
 0.8 ... tied 41st coldest (1768, 1987
 0.7 ... tied 39th coldest (1766, 1850)
 0.6 ... tied 37th coldest (1774, 1842)
 0.5 ... tied 32nd coldest (1681, 1685, 1689, 1871, 1941)
 0.4 ... tied 30th coldest (1826, 1945)
 0.3 ... tied 27th coldest (1757, 1815, 1829)
 0.2 ... 26th coldest (1895)
 0.1 ... 25th coldest (1767)
 0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)
-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1, -1.2, -1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7, -1.8, -1.9
-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2 to -2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)
-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.5 ... mean on 14th, 1982

-7.7 ... coldest daily in Jan since 1963 (12th, 1987) or since any CET mean 12 Dec 1981 (-8.7)

-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan mean in past 156 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the third coldest day in any month and coldest in any Jan since -9.1 on 4 Jan 1867)
..... ..... 12 Dec 1981 at -8.7 was marginally colder, 8 Feb 1895 -8.5 C

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter the temperature forecast contest by end of day Tuesday, 31 December (2024) or with increasing time penalties on the first three days of January 2025. 

 

(Optional) EWP forecast contest

-- Predict the January precipitation (snowfall liquid equivalent so for every 10 cm of snow, 10 mm precip on average), the standard we are using for this contest is the Hadley England and Wales Precip (EWP) and here are the averages and extremes (the period of record is 1766 to present) ...

184.6 .. wettest January (2014)

176.8 .. 2nd wettest Jan (1948)

146.0 .. 2021

 97.6 ... 2023

 97.2 ... 2024

 93.7 .. --- average 1995-2024 ---

 94.2 .. --- average 1991-2020 ---

 93.0 .. --- average 1981-2010 ---

 81.6 _ average of all data 1766 to 2024

 36.3 _ 2022

 16.5 .. driest January in recent past (1997) -- 5th driest since these records started in 1766

 15.3 .. second driest January on record (1779)

 04.4 .. driest January (1766)

Notes: The recent past has seen several quite wet months besides 2014, 1988 (169.0 mm) was third wettest, 1995 (162.6 mm) was fourth wettest, and 2016 (149.5 mm) was 8th wettest, 1984 (149.3) was 9th wettest, 2021 (146.0 mm) was 12th wettest and 2008 (144.9) was 13th wettest. 1994 (18th) and 1999 (21st) are also in top 21 wettest Jans, and 1990, 1986 rank 23rd and 24th. So in the recent 38 years (1986 to 2023), we find eleven of the wettest 24, where at random (since 1766) only 3 cases would be expected. By 40th wettest another four of past fifty post-1974 years (1974, 1975, 1998, 2004) are added (total of 15 of 40 in just 50 of 258 years of record). 1993 and 1978 are also added by 51st rank, so 17 out of 51 (one third) of wettest Januaries are found in past fifty years (one in 5.2 is random).

Jan 2020 had 82.5 mm, while 2019 was a relatively dry 47.1 mm, and Jan 2018 was slightly wetter than average at 104.5 mm,  2017 produced 79.6 mm and 2015 had 101.0 mm. (2013 was 93.0, 2012 67.6, 2011 94.8, 2010 75.3, 2009 96.4). (Jan 2022, 2023 and 2024 are in table above)

Dry Januaries have been rare in recent decades. Aside from 1997, the only cases since 1981 to record 40 mm or less include 2022 (36.3 mm), 1987 (33.9 mm), and 2006 with 31.9 mm. Since we counted cases in past 51 years, the count in the driest 52 is only five, about half of expectation. Wet beats dry 17-5 in that interval.

To enter the precip contest, forecast the England and Wales precip for Jan 2025, to nearest mm (and tenth if desired). You can add this to your temperature forecast or place it in a separate post. Same deadlines, scoring is to a maximum of 10 points each month. Any percentage forecast entered will be converted using 1991-2020 average of 94.2 mm. 

__ Good luck !! __ 

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

First in at 5.1c and 61mm….with thanks 😊

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

6. 3c and 120mm please 

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton 300ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Nuneaton 300ft
Posted

5.8c  88mm

 

Early cold snap followed my 3.5 weeks of winters over

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
Posted

6.6C and 98.5mm for me plse

Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
Posted

6.9C and 79mm for me. First time, hope ok to join in .

Posted

There’s 3 ways I think this January could go.

it could go a winter 2019/2020 and be ridiculously mild like every month of the winter.

it could a winter 2023/2024 and provide the coldest spell of the winter. 
 

or it could go a winter 2015/2016 and be part of a back loaded winter.


I’m going for the finale choice with 5.8 and 68mm.

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'll plump for 6.7C and 85mm please, Roger.

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

6.5c and 72mm please. 

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

 Summerlover2006 I do not think that winter 2015-16 was exactly a backloaded winter - yes I acknowledge that it started off with the warmest December CET since records began in 1659 (also 1.6*C warmer than any other December in the series); then the January was still overall milder than average (though not so markedly as December), though we did get a spell of colder weather in mid-month, which arguably was the coldest spell of the 2015-16 winter, then it turned mild again, then I think that the February tried to set up a pattern to deliver some colder weather, but it didn't quite come together, though I think that we did have a spell of colder weather in the early part of March that year.

I think that winter 2015-16 was more a pattern of an exceptionally mild December followed by a closer to, but still slightly above average, overall rest of the winter, so not exactly backloaded, as the later part of the winter wasn't particularly cold.

For a proper backloaded winter I would be thinking something more on the lines of 1985-86 as a good example, or otherwise a winter that delivers a signifcant cold spell in the later part of it, after there has been limited cold in the earlier part, but not 2015-16, as that winter still didn't bring much in the way of significant cold weather in the later part of it.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

5.5. Thinking of something intermediate between 1981 and 1989 for temperature.

As for rainfall, equal to January 1981, whatever that was (where can we get hold of EWP?). A mostly anticyclonic month but with the occasional active frontal system.

A lot of extreme mild guesses by the looks of things, hope these are based on cynicism rather than expert knowledge!

Edited by Summer8906
Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

 North-Easterly Blast 2015-6 reminded me rather of 1987-88, in the sense that it became less anomalously mild with time. One important difference was that the mildness only kicked in around mid-Dec in 1987 but other than that the two winters seemed very similar with the Christmas period in both years really silly mild in both cases. In both cases Jan was the notably wet and cyclonic month and Feb was the least mild winter month, and the month with the longest dry spells. 1988 had a much more pronounced dry spell than 2016, though.

Edited by Summer8906
Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Summerlover2006 said:

it could go a winter 2019/2020 and be ridiculously mild like every month of the winter.

I guess December will not end up ridiculously mild though: the first half was about average and this week and into the weekend it's a mix of average and milder days. A lot will depend on the behaviour of that high too: if it drags in SE-ly winds, the south might get a month that isn't especially mild at all.

I think it'll be certain this Dec will be less mild than 2023, 2021, 2019 and probably less mild than 2018 and 2016 too.

Edited by Summer8906
Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
Posted

4.8c and 48mm please.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

Only just got chance to post this, so here is my usual chart which presents some of Roger's CET data in visual form.

The chart below shows the CET averages since the start of the daily figures in 1772. The points are individual years, the cyan line is the 10-year trailing average, the blue line is the 30-year trailing average.

image.thumb.png.ac28dadd0f10d9c8ceb48232d8de991b.png

Overall, January has seen a warming trend as expected. Looking at more recent history, it's notable how well clustered the Januaries of the 21st century have been, especially in the last 10 years or so, with not much variation around the mean. The last notably mild January with a CET of 6.5C was 2020, and the last notably cold January was 1.5C in 2010.

I will wait another 10 days or so before I put my guess in.

Posted
  • Location: Essington, South Staffs
  • Location: Essington, South Staffs
Posted

Going to have to go mild and wet with this one

5.7C and 124mm please!

Posted
  • Location: Twickenham, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Twickenham, London
Posted

5.0c, 70mm.

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

Going for 6.7*C and 65mm precipitation, please. Not completely feeling it in terms of it being a chilly month (but love to be wrong). 

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

 Roger J Smith Thanks for the info and link. Close to my guesstimate of 60.0mm.

In which case, I will revise my forecast to 5.5C and 62mm (I can see a Jan 1981-style month happening, but upping the rainfall a little to account for the fact that winters seem to be wetter on average than the 80s due partly to higher SSTs).

Interesting to see from the stats what years had not a single month with 100mm. The last was as long ago as 1973, it appears, and before that 1964, 1953, 1933, 1908 and 1902. They are the only examples since the start of the 20th century. So on average they were every 15 years or so for much of the 20th century - but we've waited 50 years since the last one. We must be surely overdue another dry year...

 

Edited by Summer8906
Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

 Summer8906 A few cooler ones are coming in now, I'm thinking, will we be scrambling to change our forecasts much lower by the 31st? Maybe.😄

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