January 2025 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests

[Coldie24]

3.7c and 61mm please.

[Earthshine]

I was watching a video from a channel called VSauce and I wondered if our CET guesses follow the "wisdom of the crowd"?

The short video for those interested: https://youtube.com/shorts/Hb-w7qpWNsE?feature=shared

[Derecho]

Evening all,

Here is the latest projections for the first half of January based on the EC OP.

After a mild CET for New Years Day (thanks to the high minima from today) we quickly go into much colder air.

How long that will last for though is uncertain as there is a huge scatter in the ensembles after January 5th. The EC initially is one of the mildest runs on January 5th before falling back in line until the 10th. Then it briefly turns mild again before turning cold.

The mild spike on the 5th may get squeezed out in subsequent runs but there are plenty off ensemble members that keep things very mild after the 5th in the south.

Given climate change and how Euro Highs now seem to appear at every possibility this is an incredibly tough call. I think I'll go coldish though at 3.0C

The EC gives us an 1050mb+ high to our NE towards mid month. I doubt that is going to verify but the EC as a result only 2.0C up to mid month.

 

[mulzy]

3.2C and 77mm please.

[Mark Bayley]

4.0c please. Cold start. Mild middle. Average end..

[Midlands Ice Age]

3.8C and  72.3ms of raIn/snowfall  please.

MIA

[Roger J Smith]

I am going to adjust to 4.9 and 155.8 mm. 

Table of forecasts likely to be posted at 0100 and on time "grace period" will extend to posting of table, so if you stumble in after midnight, you may not yet be "late late." 

No extensions beyond 0100.

 

[LetItSnow]

 Derecho If we do get some heavy snow and the GFS 18z is closer to the mark then possibly some very cold minima could give some surprisingly low CET readings under clear skies and snow cover. Of course just conjecture but a possibility. I’d love to see it go as low as possible! 

[Daniel*]

Thinking a cold start to 2025 3.1C and 80mm thanks if the month really seizes what is available the CET could be somewhat lower.

[February1978]

Happy New Year all!

Very knife edge situation in next week or so, but can't see cold living through the month so 4.3c and a 'wetter' 96mm, thanks

If tonights pub run verifies this would be handsomely wrong though!

[Don]

A very tough call to say the least!!

However, I will go with 4.3C and 140mm, please.

A mild December, followed by a colder January and then a mild February?!  

[Stationary Front]

3.3 please with 86mm 

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for Jan 2025

 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) ___________ EWP forecasts in order

6.9 _ 79.0 __ Johncam ( 3 ) ___________________________ 155.8 _ Roger J Smith (53)

6.8 _122.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 2 ) ___________140.0 _ Don (56)

6.7 _ 65.0 __ Bluehedgehog074 (9) __________________ 125.0 _ coldie24 (L1 rev)

6.2 _ ------ __ Typhoon John (15) ______________________ 124.0 _ Fred L ( 7 ) 

5.9 _ ------ __ Froze were the Days (L1-6) ______________122.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 2 )

5.8 _ 68.0 __ Summerlover2006 ( 4 ) __________________112.0__Weather26 (38)

5.8 _ 48.0 __ catbrainz (14) ___________________________ 112.0__ Godber1 (41) 

5.8 _ 98.5 __ Bobd29 (19, 3a) _________________________ 110.0 _ rwtwm (32)

5.7 _124.0 __Fred L ( 7 ) _______________________________110.0__ Let It Snow (45)

5.6 _ 82.0 __ Summer blizzard (L2-2) _________________ 109.5 _ Polar Gael (16)

5.5 _ 62.0 __ Summer8906 ( 5 ) _______________________105.0 _ seaside60 (L1-3)

5.3 _100.0__ DR(S)NO (23) ____________________________102.0 _ Reef (27) 

5.2 _ 85.0 __ Methuselah (20, 5a) _____________________101.0 _ Summer 18 ( 8 )

5.1 _ 61.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 1 ) ___________________ 100.0 _ DR(S)NO (23)

5.1 _ 77.0 __ The PIT (12) _____________________________ 100.0 _ B87 (L1-7)

5.0 _ 90.0 __ WYorksWeather (31) _____________________ 98.5 _ Bobd29 (3a)

5.0 _ 70.0 __ syed2878 (33) ____________________________ 98.0 __ davehsug (36)

5.0 _ 70.0 __ weatherforducks (35) ____________________ 98.0 __ Cymro (L1-1)

4.9 _155.8__ Roger J Smith (53) ________________________ 97.9 _ Shaunado (46) 

4.8 _ 48.0 __ john88b ( 6 ) ______________________________ 96.0 _ February1978 (55) 

4.6 _101.0__ Summer 18 ( 8 ) __________________________ 95.0 __ Jeff C (24) 

4.6 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t (17) ________________________________95.0 _ Frigid (40)

4.5 _ 62.0 __ chilly milly (10) ____________________________ 95.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (47)

4.5 _ 80.0 __ J10 (L1-9) __________________________________ 93.5 __ Metwatch (44)

4.4 _ 72.0 __ snowray (42, 5b) __________________________ 93.0 __ jonboy (L1-4)

4.4 _ 93.5 __ Metwatch (44) _____________________________90.0 _ Blast From the Past (11) 

4.3 _ 96.0 __ February1978 (55) _________________________90.0 __ WYorksWeather (31) 

4.3 _140.0__ Don (56) ___________________________________88.0 __ stewfox (2a)

4.2 _ 60.0 __ ciderwithrosie (22) ________________________ 86.0 __ Emmett Garland (29)

4.2 _ 78.0 __ SteveB (28) ________________________________ 86.0 __ Stationary Front (57) 

4.2 _ 85.0 __ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (34) ___________________85.0 __  Methuselah (5a)

4.2 _ 95.0 __ Frigid (40) __________________________________ 85.0 __ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (34)

4.2 _105.0__ seaside60 (L1-3) ___________________________ 84.0 __ Shillitocet (L1-2)

4.1 _ 98.0 __ davehsug (36) ______________________________82.0 __ Summer blizzard (L2-2)

4.1 _ 75.0 __ Terminal moraine (L1-5) ___________________ 80.0 __ virtualsphere (13) 

4.0 _ 85.0 __ Consensus ________________________________ 85.0 __ Consensus

4.0 _ 97.9 __ Shaunado (46) ______________________________80.0 __ daniel* (54)

4.0 _ ------ __ Mark Bayley (51) ____________________________80.0 __ Paul T (59)

3.9 _102.0__ Reef (27) ____________________________________80.0 __ J10 (L1-9)

3.9 _ 95.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (47) _______________________ 79.0 __ Johncam ( 3 )

3.8 _ 72.3 __ Midlands Ice Age (52) ______________________ 78.0 __ SteveB (28 )

3.7 _125.0__ Coldie24 (48, L1) ___________________________ 77.0 __ The PIT (12) 

3.7 _ ------ __ damianslaw (58) ____________________________77.0 __ Mulzy (50) 

3.6 _ ------ __ Summer Sun (30) ___________________________75.0 __ Terminal moraine (L1-5)

3.5 _ 95.0 __ Jeff C (24) ___________________________________74.0 __ Cloud2 (43)

3.4 _109.5__ Polar Gael (16) _____________________________ 72.3 __ Midlands Ice Age (52)

3.4 _ 62.0 __Mr Maunder (39) ____________________________72.0 __ snowray (5b) 

3.3 _110.0__Let It Snow (45) _____________________________ 70.0 __ syed2878 (33) 

3.3 _ 86.0 __ Stationary Front (57) ________________________70.0 __ weatherforducks (35) 

3.3 _ 84.0 __ Shillitocet (L1-2) _____________________________68.0 __ Summerlover2006 ( 4 ) 

3.3 _100.0__B87 (L1-7) ____________________________________66.0 __ Freeze (L1-8 )

3.2 _110.0__rwtwm (32) __________________________________ 65.0 __ Bluehedgehog074 ( 9 ) 

3.2 _112.0__Weather26 (38 ) ______________________________62.0 __ Summer8906 ( 5 )

3.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (50) ___________________________________ 62.0 __ chilly milly (10)

3.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N (21) ___________________________________ 62.0 __ Mr Maunder (39)

3.1 _ 80.0 __ daniel* (54) __________________________________61.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 1 ) 

3.0 _ 90.0 __ Blast from the Past (11) _____________________ 60.0 __ Leo97t (17)

3.0 _ --- --- __Derecho (49) ________________________________ 60.0 __ ciderwithrosie (22)

2.9 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (25, 2b) _____________________________ 58.0 __ Norrance (L2-1)

2.9 _ ------ __ Weather Observer (37) ______________________ 55.0 __ Ricardo23 (18 )

2.9 _ 93.0 __ jonboy (L1-4) ________________________________ 55.0 __ Neil N (21)

2.8 _ 80.0 __ virtualsphere (13) ___________________________ 50.0 __ Earthshine (26)  

2.8 _ 66.0 __ Freeze (L1-8 ) ________________________________ 48.0 __ john88b ( 6 )

2.8 _ 58.0 __ Norrance (L2-1) ______________________________ 48.0 __ catbrainz (14) 

2.7 _ 55.0 __ Ricardo23 (18 ) _______________________________ 

2.7 _ 74.0 __ Cloud2 (43) _________________________________

2.6 _ ------ __ Kentish Man (L1-10) ________________________

2.4 _ 80.0 __ Paul T (59) __________________________________

2.3 _ 98.0 __ Cymro (L1-1) ________________________________

2.2 _ 86.0 __ Emmett Garland (29) _______________________

2.0 _ 50.0 __ Earthshine (26) _____________________________

1.8 _112.0__ Godber1 (41) _______________________________

__________________________________

59 on time CET, 52 EWP, consensus after late entries is now 4.0 C and 85.5 mm

Late: so far 10 added (9 with EWP) ... 69, 61 total ... (L1-8) is a revision of a previous on-time forecast  at order of entry 8, all later entries 9-60 now 8-59 ... L1-5 was placed in Dec contest and so far is not entered in Jan contest thread (except by me) but is accepted anyway (Terminal moraine) ... also entry 49 (coldie24) revised EWP only (59, 53 on time became 59, 52).

Two forecasts are late 2 days, bringing total to 71 CET, 63 EWP. 

<<< LATE PENALTY PERIOD BEGINS BELOW after damianslaw and Paul T >>>

================

4.7 _ 93.7 __ average 1995-2024

4.7 _ 94.2 __ average 1991-2020 

4.5 _ 93.0 __ average 1981-2010 

3.3 _ 81.6 __ average of all data 

===================================================
(EWP scoring now posted 2 Feb)

 

 

Edited February 2 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

Mmm cold months are hard to come by nowadays, I'll go 3.7 degrees. Rather late..Scotland will have a notably cold Jan, CET zone less so. 

[Paul T]

2.4oC and 80mm

[Cymro]

2.3 and 98mm

[Shillitocet]

Slightly late but 3.3.C, a cold start, some mild interludes but semi regular snow periods and a wet 84mm. A few more named storms!

[seaside 60]

4.2c

105mm

thanks

[jonboy]

A late 2.9 and 93mm please

[Derecho]

I'm upping my guess to 5.5C

[Roger J Smith]

Placed Terminal moraine in table of entries, entry from Dec contest ... 4.1 C, 75.0 mm

Edited January 1 by Roger J Smith

[Froze were the Days]

I'll go for a chilly start for the first week and then turning much milder...5.9c

[Coldie24]

Can I change my precipitation guess to 125mm please ?

[B87]

3.8c and 100mm

[Freeze]

2.8c 66mm please