Mid-Winter: Forecast and Model Discussion commentary

[Community Team]

 Happy new year! 

Please use this thread for discussing any aspect of upcoming winter weather including model output, forecasts from other organisations, matches with past winters, teleconnections and other weather-related inputs to the outlook. Please use your Regional group for discussing local 'in my backyard' prospects and weather, including 'will it snow in [a place]' type questions.

Reference to climate change on immediate prospects is acceptable as part of a wider post, but please use the dedicated Climate Change area for any in-depth discussions. Please use the 'insightful'  reaction if you believe a post in here also warrants being copied over to the Model Output Discussion Highlights thread.

As ever - please keep things friendly, civil and within the community guidelines. If you spot any posts you think don't meet that criteria, please report them.

Thank you and happy model watching

[That GFS]

Even if the low goes north, seems most of the models are forecasting some form of snow for 9pm ish in SE tomorrow

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Come on guys let’s get back on track for the 12z,hopefully some movement south of the Azores low,followed by days of cold e/ne winds..icon first out shortly 

[winterof79]

Just a nigh on 10 day below average interlude and most seem to be dissatisfied.

A flat line apart from an insurgence from the SW.To the regionals later in the week.

[TSNWK]

@bluearmy 850s chart posed by @phil nw.This afternoon.

Clear yellow section of plus 0 over southern half of uk as AZ low trundles through Sunday - with blue sub zero’s north and south including France 

 Lukesluckybunch love it - like the models were showing over the weekend

[HarvSlugger]

I swear to God if icon goes even more north

[Bricriu]

WYorkweather if the AI output is correct, a 10 day cold spell would be great. It's rare we get an un interrupted cold spell longer than that anyway

What I hope we don't end up with is a recent GFS FI run  of a Euro high that's eats up more of peak winter. I have seen enough mild, grey and damp weather during this past December already 

Edited January 1 by Bricriu

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 Lukesluckybunch snow to rain for us, many events like this in 90s, 17 Dec '97, 30th Dec '95, 3 Feb '94

Edited January 1 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Battleground Snow]

 Lukesluckybunch

The few EPS  members that keep it south..

Icon rolling.....

[Ali1977]

12zs move everything back south , that’s my guess - high pressure a bit stronger into Greenland

[Nick123]

 Ali1977 I think they will converge to the gfs 0z solution

[Jacob]

 Ali1977 We need one word. UPGRADE

[Mike Poole]

Well, it looks like whatever help we’re going to get from the MJO is now baked in, and we aren’t going to get any more!

Edited January 1 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Obvious one but UKMO will move north

[HarvSlugger]

 I remember Atlantic 252 most likely sadly

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The few EPS  members that keep it south..

Very nice!

[Ali1977]

Early days , I see ICON upgrade stronger block , weaker low 

[mountain shadow]

 HarvSlugger I swear to God if Icon goes even more South. 

[Jacob]

ICON has the Azores low a tiny bit south and weaker at 36h. The jet stream is further east and is stronger though

Edited January 1 by Jacob

[HarvSlugger]

 Ali1977 yesss, I made a mistake last time saying upgrade early on then it went worse further on

[Mr Marky Marky]

 Ali1977 stop It hope so mate .

[TSNWK]

 Jacob dont think this becomes the issue it is the Iceland low that screws things up by adding fuel and pumping up the low.. shunting it north.

south is best for all longer term!

[winterof79]

How about we wait and see what the runs show before declaring the unknown.Just a suggestion

Edited January 1 by winterof79

[Jacob]

 Ali1977 It's the same as the 6z now at 45h

Small feature of high pressure stayed for longer which could weaken phasing. A good sign 

Edited January 1 by Jacob

[TSNWK]

 winterof79 nah  its grotty wet afternoon / better than watching crap TV