Mid-Winter: Forecast and Model Discussion commentary

[Lukesluckybunch]

That bulge around Iceland,it’s there everything single run..surely that prevents heights building properly…

Edited January 1 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[HarvSlugger]

 Lukesluckybunch do we want that bulge as shallow and far away as possible?

[Ali1977]

The low is defo further south at T60 - albeit slightly rounder - slide  

Edited January 1 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, HarvSlugger said:

do we want that bulge as shallow and far away as possible?

I think so yea..what do you think?

[Jacob]

 Ali1977 It looks more delayed which means cold could get in sooner, increasing snow chances

Also the ICON 12z has much less phasing at  63h

[HarvSlugger]

 Lukesluckybunch don't ask me I'm a noobie

[Ali1977]

 Jacob yes slightly better , but is the delay going to help  bulge of WAA in the Atlantic looks flatter which is good 

Edited January 1 by Ali1977

[Neilsouth]

 Jacob We also want the snow to come in much later as well, better dewpoints and temps

[Zero Visibility]

Anyone for another round of model tug o war

[That ECM]

 Ali1977

[IDO]

 Lukesluckybunch

Yes, it has a double whammy: diverting the incoming northerly SSE away from the UK which means we have to wait for the this spoiler low to pass before the northerly regains traction- and secondly, as you say, stops more CAA from building the GH:

It has for sure thrown a spanner in the works, stopping a clean northerly from reaching the UK to keep the Azores low further south.

[Mcconnor8]

ICON 12z and Arepege 12z both slightly further South at T72, let's see how much impact that has on the snow boundary later on.

[TSNWK]

 That ECM well its not worse - so that’s something… 

defo different slang 06Z was south west to north easy - 12Z looks more west - east.. expect this shift 0 850 south a amidhe by Sunday.

[winterof79]

As Cactol alluded to the Icon starting the delay of the Azores low

[Ali1977]

 Mcconnor8 yes looking better, let’s get this back to the M4 as the centre - giving wiggle room for future movement !!

[frosty ground]

 IDO it’s been on the models for the last few days 

[Battleground Snow]

 Ali1977 delay will deffo help, will stop it being dragged north, at least initially 

[Jacob]

ICON 12z: 

Vs 6z, its 3h before but that's because the low arrives 3h earlier: 

 

Upgrade for the south

[Ali1977]

West of Ireland , WAA not heading north - looking much better vs last run 

[Mcconnor8]

ICON specifically is a decent jog South.

[sheikhy]

Jesus arpege and icon why you bringing me back out again on here!!!i know i said i only come back if you go south and you go and do that!!!!

[Wilxy]

Further north! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Big shift south!

[Ali1977]

Booooom, great start to the 12z ️️️

[HarvSlugger]

 Even more noticeable shift south  at 90 hours