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Posted
  • Location: Various
  • Location: Various
Posted

The ECM, like the GEM, have the high slipping which we don’t really want:

Screenshot2025-01-15at8_26_38AM.thumb.png.d6e06c532caefaf1d28fe4e092fb892b.png

The latest GEFS ensembles are also a mixed bag.

However, please try to relax everyone so far as you can. A Scandinavian High that is perfectly orientated is never easy and it would be amazing with more than a week to go if  various runs didn’t throw out less-than-ideal permutations.

If half the outputs are still showing a Scandinavian High over the next few days then it’s game on. 

Here’s hoping 🙂 🤞

:cold-emoji::cold-emoji::cold-emoji::cold-emoji::cold-emoji:

xx

 

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM clusters this morning, T192-T240:

IMG_0039.thumb.png.5485745bf34a1f296526ba35ff9affe6.png

Lots of uncertainty this morning, so things are not really any clearer.

There is a consistent signal to push up a Scandi high of some sort, but focussing on this feature at day 10, the detail varies.  Cluster 1 (16) has a weak feature, but moves to the north of the jet to a -NAO.  Cluster 2 (14) has a stronger high and well positioned to send the jet south and permit an easterly.  Cluster 3 (10) has a weaker feature but retains a connection to heights to the south which prevents an easterly.  Cluster 4 (6) pushes up a big block but poorly orientated retaining heights over the UK.  Cluster 5 (5) is the -NAO one where the high is more to the N or NW, rather weak, and low heights into Iberia.  

T264+:

IMG_0040.thumb.png.25f81fbf87bb90c91d4f76c5d9069ee0.png

No agreement at all about what happens to the Scandi high next.  Cluster 1 (15) retains connection to heights to the south so it is poor.  Cluster 2 (12) likewise, but return of westerlies to the UK.  Cluster 3 (11) looks promising at day 13 but then orients badly.  Cluster 4 (9) looks to have some potential in terms of position and trends to -NAO.  Cluster 5 (4) is the -NAO one, but no high to the north that is relevant to the UK.

More runs needed…

  • Like 5
  • Insightful 4
Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted (edited)

Feel a common theme happens with the runs, just observation not backed up by facts, but the 0z runs always tend to be the least inspiring for those wanting either warm weather or cold weather, the most tepid and atlantic driven, 6z runs tend to offer most likelihood, the 12z sit inbetween or side with one or the other, 18z in the case of the GFS the wildcard  - most extreme for better or worse.

This thread often follows the rollercoaster of emotions.. depending on the time of day..

Looking at the 0z runs and ensembles, perhaps just too much scatter to call likely events for later in the month. The theme is for the atlantic trough to come unstuck somewhat by heights to our NE, as I said a couple of days ago, the UK sits in the middle of forces with possibility of many outcomes including cold, mild, wet and dry. 

Edited by damianslaw
  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The theme is for the atlantic trough to come unstuck somewhat by heights to our NE

Yes, this seems all we can say with reasonable confidence at the moment.  As you say, the consequences of that could be many and varied and still up in the air!

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 Nick F yep - no obvious traction on the ens suites from yesterday.  Was hoping to see more members jumping to a decent scandi high option 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

The models carrying on toying with different medium range outcomes.

The basics of a block to the east and some possible undercutting to the west are there. Much firming up over the coming days at to where the boundary and thus possible snow opportunities between the two sets up. There are lots of moving parts in this process which need to fall into place which is why genuine long fetch easterlues are so rare. A sense of realism while we dream often helps. 

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

17369321349265205023720684670856.thumb.png.0f8bd5d4e11e891fb71707fbdc7e45c6.png

Don't like how the AI keeps churning out the Atlantic dominated runs, no interest in a Scandi high from it as of yet.

Also still only having a couple of GEFS members in support of the Operational regarding getting a proper undercut and cold air directed towards us isn't great. As others have alluded to would have liked to see that signal grow rather than stagnate.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

Morning all,charts still working on positioning and orientation of possible Scandinavian high pressure,the background feeling is still firm on a Scandinavian pressure rise how it finally works out is still up for grabs.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted (edited)

 Mcconnor8 ECM AI has a very stormy period!

ecmwfeu-0-264.thumb.png.c5cf1bb4225d7c02f95c7ae01b989b4d.png

ecmwfeu-0-318.thumb.png.e3ae40157b557784a7cfc04fdd57de39.png

Edited by HarvSlugger
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
Posted

Irrespective of how the 0z turns out in this specific run we're so so close here

image.thumb.png.7ad9cddc6551a74ef1bca57071c563c8.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

 Don The UKMO model wasn’t is what I meant. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
Posted

 damianslaw I concur with your observations. We saw the same situation play out around 2 weeks or so ago. What followed was around 10 days of lying snow in my neck of the woods (at low altitude). In fact, there are still some small patches around and piles where people have cleared paths and driveways. The models will obviously play around with different solutions this far out until settling on a final outcome. Patience required....something which seems to be in short supply. 

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
Posted

 Mike Poole Thanks for posting these as ever.. 

T264+ looks a little on the poor side IMO, kinda feel it's favouring an Atlantic return there - 192-240 of course the most important timeframe though and whatever happens here will effect what happens next.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

 StretfordEnd1996

Yes that is reflected in the ensemble scatter, not many members going for the proper Easterly at all yet, mean staying above average all the way through though potentially colder at the surface than indicated here.

Screenshot_20250115_093717_Chrome.jpg

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: East Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: snow or warm&dry
  • Location: East Surrey
Posted

GFS 6z looks slightly better at 84h since the western TPV lobe is weaker, which should help WWA to go further northwest, putting us in a better position for an easterly

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
Posted

 TEITS Exactly. To be honest the last thing I want to see is a raging easterly at 240 hours because we've never had any charts make it all the way to zero hours unchanged!

Let them play about with different high pressure options. I'll pay attention when the ECM AI ditches its stormy predictions.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
Posted

 Ball Lightning Thanks for your reply. In 1962/3 if I recall correctly the wind was from the southeast when it hit the UK but it came around the curve below a large anticyclone with the winds originating from a source to the northeast if that makes sense. The result was the distance over water from a frozen solid Europe was little over 20 miles.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 Mcconnor8 the ec 00z suite does not have as many cold members as the 12z  suite 

IMG_2704.thumb.jpeg.5d84e9833e51e6d7616acdf05b8246ed.jpeg     IMG_2705.thumb.jpeg.33a09511a324e50283adce664f3e78dc.jpeg

 

Gefs are better in general but again I’d say the 12z was colder than the 00z suite 

IMG_2706.thumb.jpeg.632e9985bca569d051dc1366238126d4.jpeg   IMG_2707.thumb.jpeg.c6354dccb903911a59cde56443406c4f.jpeg
 

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted

 TEITS Very like we were treated to steak first yesterday with what was on offer!

Today,more like Waitrose finest sausages.

We jumped to Nirvana for coldies yestetday from a standing start really,to be expected we see other solutions to a general theme.

Sombody did mention last night what might be driving this in the background ( think it was quite a tentative signal)  not a major SSW as we have been taight to look for in recent years and as we know dont always pay out for us anyway.

Would be interesting with all the seasonals pointing Mild and Euro high dominated that a 'minor' signal in the background could be enough for a memorable Easterly shot.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

17369365952313807633670368526034.thumb.png.56eab5749b5e7ccc50aaa28414959c86.png

No real undercut by Day 8 on the 6z so the high is struggling to build enough latitude and we end up with more of a Southerly draw than the 0z.

The cold headed to South East Europe where it has so often found itself recently with the presence of the Euro high.

17369370766055139029857741898941.thumb.png.f04f2980c00bd737df4d00904f3f1169.png

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
Posted

 Mcconnor8  Could still perhaps feed some WAA I suppose, if it turned out like that. Not the end of the world because sometimes you need a few bites of the cherry and overall setting up the atmosphere. On the other hand it could go incredibly mild from there if Atlantic forcing is too strong and reverts Europe to a mild pattern. 

  • Like 3
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