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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted (edited)

Quite a lot of PM air entrained within these systems as they hit the UK so you would't rule out some snowfall further north and the highlands,maybe the pennines if we get a little runner further south as shown on the gem.

image.thumb.png.64f89644aac6e0d1173cb8ff5c10eb46.png

As ever with a maritime airmass dewpoints are usually too high at those uppers for widespread snowfall but higher up it's more a possibility.

Edited by phil nw.
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

GFS mean 12z chart looks worse to my eye next Friday

image.thumb.png.97c1ac1c64495aba16ccb8b431ef1717.png

 

Than the 0z

image.thumb.png.22c610ec9ee996fa3cb693902c70ade9.png

 

Could be more ensembles have the low closer to the UK on the 12z run than the 0z run for next friday

Look at this ensemble

image.thumb.png.5aecfe64575411b781cc103f64e07bfd.png

  • Like 5
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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
Posted
19 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem still teasing some blocking to the north east, but no other model is interested in this scenario.

 

gemnh-0-240 (2).png

gemnh-1-240 (1).png

Canada/NA's looking like the bottom of my pan after my horrendous attempts at cooking... No doubt the extreme depth of cold and warm seas is going to fuel a very stormy period for us. The question is, how long for?

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The GFS by deepening the shortwave later has the very strong winds closer to the UK.

I know some love storms but I’m not a fan and hope we get the earlier deepening which would start the more ne track earlier .

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, sun and snow.
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
Posted

gfs-city-of-london-gb-51.thumb.jpeg.d91e63ec1e02d89f1cd2df3b914127ea.jpeg

Totally silly I know, but one of the GFS pertubations has 50mph wind (that's steady, not gusts!) blowing through London. That would be quite something.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

 feb1991blizzard

Genuinely no idea but I suspect it’s just chaos theory at play, rather than anything intrinsically wrong with the modelling. 

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Lord Grogon 17372213558365930900762201980696.thumb.png.7249b4c7e5dcbad86e997328ea75eb6f.png

That perturbation has a sub 940mb low plowing right through the centre of England on an Eastward track, would be a very severe event but thankfully not likely yet.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted

 Met4Cast

With every model (apart from 1 -  GEM) going for an east Atlantic super low, it isn't just random chaos.

(Even the GEM has had one although in the central Atlantic).

The problem is more likely that the  models are on the absolute limit  of the parameters that have been set in order to keep the data within bounds, for the science to give meaningful results. In modelling as soon as you start to get outside the normal distribution zone, then normality of the output breaks down and the output becomes highly irregular (and hence probably not reproducible from run to run). Hence the variation you will see from run to run.

I think that some of the data being seen with this expected jet steam, is at the extreme end of what can be termed 'normal'. It shows the symptoms of chaos, but it is actually a software modelling issue. 

MIA

  • Like 5
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  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria 530 feet asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria 530 feet asl
Posted

 nick sussex its a depressingly familiar scenario with deep cold in the US pushing out over a warm Atlantic creating explosive depressions which then race across the Atlantic passing north west of the UK due to a persistant Iberian or European ridge, same every year.

All we need now is the annual Athens Snowfall Special and Netweather coldies humiliation is complete 😔 

Andy

 

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

 Midlands Ice Age Of course sometimes the models show something 'odd' or unprecedented and turn out to be right. 12 months or so ago I laughed at a ridiculously deep low projected on one GFS run, and it turned out to verify as Storm Ingunn, affecting parts of Scandinavia.

And of course before that, how people laughed at the GFS perturbations showing 40C, until it kept showing it over and over again, and we all know what happened next...

In that sense I think whilst it is possible that something is wrong with some of the physical parameters and modelling allowing this extreme deepening of lows, given that it now happens on a wide variety of models, we can't rule out the possibility that it will happen. Doesn't mean it will, but I think we have to consider the possibility.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted

My initial confidence in the storm track being NNE just to the west whilst is deemed most likely still, bringing the worst potential severe winds in the far northwest UK/Ireland, is not a foregone conclusion with some outliers, with the small risk of very strong, even damaging winds over central southern UK, this track further to our west again could very much mean the very worst stays offshore and that's distinctly possible.

The envelope of extremes suggests anywhere between 50-60mph/70-80mph inland are possible in the south with a more easterly moving storm, this would mean even less height rises to our east and the Jetstream makes more progress east. But again it's unlikely.

The envelope of extremes for the northwest with an actual hit from the worst winds, suggests anywhere between 60-70mph/90-100mph inland.

1.It will develop into a powerful storm with a central pressure probably below 960mb. ✅

2. It will fill atleast a little on close approach to the UK. ✅

3. Most likely track is still NNE just the west of Ireland/west of Scotland with a little rising of the central pressure, curving perhaps thereafter before filling more dramatically. ✅

4. A frontal system will cross the UK producing a spell of heavy rain in places with some windy weather.✅

Some wintriness is possible mostly on high ground as fronts come in.

Anything significant snow wise is unlikely though with moderation of the colder upper air temperatures.

You can see the low pressure system hitch a ride on this incredibly powerful Jetstream way to our west/southwest, the low pressure system explosively deepens with realistic pressure dropping to probably around 935mb before coming close by and filling a little but the powerful Jet-streak you see ensures limited weakening according the GFS, but it seems slightly off with the orientation so I would stick to the UKMO/GEM over this.

gfs-5-162.thumb.png.b139bf4909069ff795b4335e9eacb818.png

EUROPE_OVERVIEW_132_MOB.thumb.jpg.1f51fa0e02c6aa1b64271f4a3d50d2b9.jpg

EUROPE_OVERVIEW_150_MOB.thumb.jpg.3650e9a489ea6210d4a3aa33566f57cf.jpg

EUROPE_HGT500_150_MOB.thumb.jpg.184953c825bb6433bd810ea11c03614a.jpg

EUROPE_GUST_144_MOB.thumb.jpg.553854faedebe8f372349ff91cf2ef86.jpg

EUROPE_GUST_156_MOB.thumb.jpg.24f719045f099784d8bdbc3eb2975c81.jpg

Again it's developments afterwards that also needs a close watch as those lows could be nasty, a very unsettled period coming up. That GEFS ensemble member number 22 from a few days ago doesn't look quite so extreme now 😉 though ofcourse those pressure readings are still not going to happen. 

  • Like 1
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Sometimes UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Sometimes UK
Posted

 Midlands Ice Age I agree. Some remarkable runs being shown today. The Polar Jet pushing into unchartered territory and possibly the models churning out results well outside the normal ?  We could be entering a new era of extremes in the turbulent atmosphere.  Still quite a lot more information to be absorbed into the Global Models before this super low  is nailed and tracked. In the opposite spectrum of things some longer term models have a North Russian high intensifying to 1070mb level. What effect that will have ? I have no idea but is another interesting counter balance equation in the extreme. Meanwhile, I think UKMO model has performed the best in its shorter term results this week, so best look no further than 120 t until that deep Low comes on to the scene later next week. However, meteorologists across NW Europe will have to prepare for the worse based on the current outputs.

C

  • Like 5
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
Posted

The southern states in the US go into the extreme freezer so the jet gets supercharged and pumps storm after storm across the Atlantic for the foreseeable!! The high pressure across the whole of Europe and Northern Africa prevents any glimpse of  cold weather in most of  northern Europe. There has to be some turn around in the beginning of Feb to prevent winter being called now!

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Carrick-on-Shannon, Roscommon, Ireland 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , sunshine
  • Location: Carrick-on-Shannon, Roscommon, Ireland 70m asl
Posted (edited)

ECM going north but still very concerning for the west of Ireland at 156h

IMG_0320.thumb.jpeg.71cd03a6b7d59ffb95fbae127bc54eef.jpeg

Edited by Murray991
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Richmond, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, frost and thunderstorms
  • Location: Richmond, North Yorkshire
Posted

 Murray991 Agreed, very concerning - hopefully it does not play out like this but something to keep a very close eye on.

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
Posted

 Mcconnor8 From a simple historic perspective, a sub 940mb low running south of Scotland and through England is not likely to happen period!  

Have to assume that if anything tracking that far south, with that much energy in the trough, is going to end up as a complicated system with multiple centers that are a good 10-20mb higher in pressure.  A bowling ball low with an unprecedented central pressure is just one of those model glitches.

Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

17372269836645875751669249071745.thumb.jpg.e3cc86b2acc2926025ed56fce76115b6.jpg

AIFS 12z has a circa 955mb low centered over Ireland at 6AM on Friday

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The uncanny-canny way models converge on an Atlantic-dominant signal and maintain high confidence is always a pain for winter model watching. All models on the 12z singing from the same hymn sheet, with GEM moving much of the way towards the others compared to its outlier 0z op run.

The GEFS London 2m temp ensembles are seemingly less scattered with a generally milder look than of late:

image.thumb.png.fbf08dfdee6cada697d195c96d36cc36.png

The GEFS D16 mean--no change:

image.thumb.png.fd0a7ec4bc14419ad310e867325f7e26.png

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted

 IDO  IDO that looks hideous probably kiss goodbye to another 3 weeks of prime winter if not longer with that tpv of doom showing in the wrong place for us. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
Posted

 LetItSnow the Met seeing a rise in heights to our south in the extended could be the end of winter  up here especially we end up in mild sw winds

 

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)

 IDO um.. 

could this be a wrap! For winter 24/25

 

Edited by TSNWK
Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Posted

 TSNWK could be and equally it could not. What will be will be...

  • Like 1
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