Jump to content
Winter
Local
Radar
Snow?
Message added by Paul,

The model highlights system is running - please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied over to the highlights threadlightbulbone.png

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)

 AO- time of year seemed too mild here, just wet snow, had a covering on morning of 8th, but soon thawed, showers through the day just wet the ground, coldest feeling day of whole lockdown followed as the cold broke down with a snow free whimper

image.thumb.png.9433fedc4d2b3d8cb8da4f961f84ae75.pngimage.thumb.png.d71d43fdddc0b7cff0fdf2ca4eec2000.pngimage.thumb.png.e4f667c1487d5af290f16e539f0a5567.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

GFS 0z 15th January                                            ECM 0z 15th January                                      GEM 0z 15th January

image.thumb.png.8138b365ccad44e20556df520594ae74.png            image.thumb.png.2decc6feb47bffa67ae3e9b4674cb562.png        image.thumb.png.ad8468d2851f22ca686df96d9b0cf422.png

 

Note how well out the GFS 0z, ECM 0z and GEM 0z op runs from the 15th January were  for their prediction of yesterday?    How many would have gone for a very deep vigorous low with severe gales to batter parts of the UK instead based on those charts?

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

 AO- Don't really remember much about that if I'm honest lol.

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Scandi highs have a habit of forming at quite short notice. I do wonder if we are in a similar situation, whereby one forms relatively out of the blue.

Edit.....not looking likely on the 12z runs so far.

Edited by blizzard81
  • Like 1
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted (edited)

Darcy hit at the 7th of februari. An East based NAO- (for a change) But in the end it was fun for only one week.

CFSR_1_2021020706_1.png

Should have been cold in Britain as well with -10 uppers.

CFSR_1_2021020718_2.png

Edited by AO-
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

 blizzard81 I think in terms of timing we probably want something to happen first half of February if we can. As I've shown on some charts earlier on, whilst it's not impossible for proper wintry weather to come along in the second half of February, it's much like hoping for peak summer weather in the second half of August. The second half of February is still winter but often doesn't feel like it.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton 300ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Nuneaton 300ft
Posted (edited)

25 Jan at T264

25 Jan as of today,close but no cigar

Screenshot_20250114_123142_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20250125_164354_Chrome.jpg

Edited by stewfox
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted (edited)

GFS12 dominated by hp over Europe without delivering anything to Britain (mainly a Westerly flow and inbetween systems). On the continent chilly but without any cold advection. Settled, but nothing special for coldies. On the other hand, I will take this over anything zonal. 

GFSOPEU12_144_1 (2).png

GFSOPEU12_216_1 (3).png

GFSOPEU12_288_1 (2).png

GFSOPEU12_336_1.png

GFSOPEU12_384_1.png

Edited by AO-
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

12z gfs way more amplified in week 2

Anyone fancy a guess what happens high up ?

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Kinross
  • Location: Kinross
Posted

This was the first of March 2018 so anything is still possible given the right set up 😉.

20180301_082848.jpg

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted (edited)

 Norrance

I don't think it was storm Darcy that spoiled the easterly. The easterly continued after Darcy hit.  That was about one week later I guess.

But those are nice pictures. Love to see them again, preferably later this winter. 

CFSR_1_2021021318_1.png

Edited by AO-
Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

 AO- think it did, frontal shield killed the convection temporarily for the 7th

Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted (edited)

Day 9 Avg. Clear picture and most certainly a mid latitude block over Europe. A Northerly jet heading Northeast. Nothing particularly cold. Moreover, the cold is being swept away over Scandinavia.

GFSAVGEU12_216_1 (3).png

Edited by AO-
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Let’s see where this goes.

 

IMG_2453.jpeg

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Well it went here at T240. Nice to look at even if it is probably wrong.

IMG_2454.jpeg

IMG_2455.jpeg

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

 That ECM

Nice run. Probably on the lower side of the EPS, but definitely a nice evolution. T192:

 

ECMOPEU12_192_1 (2).png

ECMOPEU12_192_2.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: East Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: snow or warm&dry
  • Location: East Surrey
Posted

 That ECM we deserve a proper +1 week long easterly to verify with below -10 uppers and loads of snow 

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

Quite a sharp north-easterly by day 11:

image.thumb.png.a4949d790f7c6c24a68ff3414d9be1bd.png

All that soon undone by the Euro high though, here's where we end up 48 hours later:

image.thumb.png.9046d4f0ebea84c8581157ac9e4cdba1.pngimage.thumb.png.cee1907910d8e7d6d3ca037684726e94.png

Still, even if we can't get the longevity would be good to get another cold snap of any description in early February. Still very much peak winter at around this time.

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 Jacob not sure of your age Jacob but in life, you rarely get what you deserve !   But you stick at it and that’s why most of us are here! 
 

amplified ec op delivers a split strat vortex up to at least 30 hpa later week 2. 

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

 Jacob

We need the anticyclone to tilt properly and hope the cold won't get diluted. First deterministic with some cold advection. 

 

ECMOPEU12_216_2 (1).png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted (edited)

Chilly run, but now the lack of cold is the next "problem". Small "blob" of -10 uppers near our borders. 

ECMOPEU12_240_1 (12).png

ECMOPEU12_240_2 (3).png

Edited by AO-
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Wednesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather (i.e nothing that deviates too much from the norm)
  • Location: Wednesbury
Posted (edited)

If the day-10 charts verify the opening days of February won't be anything out of the ordinary. Nothing particularly mild or cold on the horizon. My gut feeling is that any cold this February is going to be of the inversion type. Ideally I'd want any inversion to take place in the first week to 9 days, when (if my calculations are correct?) the sun is still as weak as it is in early November. 🙂👍

Edited by Festivefreeze
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: East Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: snow or warm&dry
  • Location: East Surrey
Posted

 WYorksWeather if we can get this into the reliable, then the longevity would most likely upgrade imo

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...