Mid-Winter: Forecast and Model Discussion commentary

[Mike Poole]

ICON looking considerably better actually at T90, compared to 6z:

[Jacob]

Looks like ICON will be favouring the southern Midlands. A shift south

[IrelandWeather]

 Lukesluckybunch Yes.

Those shortwaves/LPs that pop up around Iceland pretty much destroy 99% of potential for cold weather around these shores over the years. 

You don't want them at all there in an ideal scenario, but they are part and parcel of things. Frustratingly, they'll often not be modelled initially and then they pop up, and WAA and resulting blocks are never as good and they also disrupt the flow of cold air south. 

[Mcconnor8]

ICON is @sheikhy dream.

[Hatewarmth]

 Neilsouth Mods can we please sort out comments like this once and for all. Ruins the MODEL thread for everyone.

 

This thread is suppose to be for discussing the models NOT what is forecast for IMBY

[Wilxy]

North Midlands the place to be on the ICON!

[Ali1977]

Midlands hammered, back edge snow more likely 

[Battleground Snow]

 Mike Poole don't know if I have the mental capacity for this for the next 48 hours, especially as a foot of snow is possible for the sweet spot area

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 sheikhy arpege was shocking earlier too wasn't it

[Liam Burge]

Icon 12z vs 6z. Further south + a lot weaker (doesn't blow the low up) - this seems like a more realistic scenario to me.

 

[Jacob]

That looks amazing. NOW SHIFT SOUTH PLEASE!! 

[That ECM]

It’s not going to be exactly the same run to run. This one a bit further south. Next one?

Edited January 1 by That ECM

[Nick123]

So icon further south aperge further north? More runs needed then..

[sheikhy]

I get absolutely blasted 4 days from now on the icon!!

[That GFS]

 Hatewarmth Come on dude, I've done nothing wrong..... 

Here I've blocked you!

Now back to the models please, thanks

Edited January 1 by Neilsouth

[Mcconnor8]

ICON lines up much closer with the Met Office warning area, Arpege still further North.

[winterof79]

Arpege  24hr snow fest

Edited January 1 by winterof79

[wellington boot]

 Mike Poole  I have a question about this for anyone with relevant expertise. Is there a reason why MJO amplitude through phases 7 and 8 is so often suppressed or non-existent, at least in winter?

As one of the most reliable drivers of HLB affecting the UK, it receives a lot of attention on here, and without having recorded it systematically, it seems to me to have been a consistent feature in recent winters that amplitude tends to collapse around, say, phases 6-8. 

On the face of it, I would expect amplitude (convective energy concentration) to be distributed essentially randomly when viewed over time, but I wonder if that is actually correct, or whether there are in fact conditions in different sectors that affect that tendency.

[Midlander]

ICON & ARPEGE - northern extent of milder air

Edited January 1 by Midlander

[sheikhy]

 Mcconnor8 arpege looked south earlier though!!!this really is next level man!!!

[Mcconnor8]

 Nick123 Always more runs needed when it is 4 days away. No model will nail it at that range.

 sheikhy I think it was a smidge South on the 6z but the 6z was very far North 

[Liam Burge]

Arpege blows up the low bringing it further North. I believe it's overdoing the strength of this low - Icon seems to be a more realistic solution to me. I think we've started on the southward trends now.

[winterof79]

 Mcconnor8 Expect ECM to move south then.

[MJB]

 Midlander Shows the headache the professionals will have.

[That GFS]

 Liam Burge Yes that's the issue lately, models are blowing up lows... They did the same with the NYD low as well..

I don't see it being as strong as indicated