Mid-Winter: Forecast and Model Discussion commentary

[A.J]

2 seperate model threads please.....one for us northerners who understand that the UK does extend further north than the Midlands and would give their gonads to see some proper winter weather just for once, and one for those pesky southerners who's posts scream IMBY 

(just teasing a little lol) 

[chris55]

 Mcconnor8 decent icon for sure!

[HarvSlugger]

Not liking the look of GFS so far...

Heights definitely weaker around and to the south of Greenland 

Not gonna turn out well

[Ball Lightning]

 A.J You live near the east coast.. there will undoubtedly be real corkers of snow showers there regardless. If the low goes north, that means most of the population gets heavy rain and it means weaker blocking and therefore a total collapse of the cold for all.

[WYorksWeather]

As others have said, ICON looking slightly further north. By T+180, cold air still in place.

I think we're good up to day 7 or 8 from a UK-wide perspective, in terms of a generally colder than average pattern. The south probably have more reason to be nervous - any further northward corrections and the cold might not dig back in sufficiently after the mild incursion.

I think the ideal scenario from a UK-wide perspective would be for the south to get a decent dumping of snow from the low but without bringing too much mild air in, as that's probably the best balance between longevity of the pattern and getting some snow chances. Much as I'd like some snow IMBY, got to see the bigger picture here.

[TSNWK]

 Jacob joking aside your observation at 6 hour might not have been as daft as it might have looked to some.

actually clearer to see the change when flicking between 12z and 06z and the AZore is now a bit further north.

oh well it was good why it lasted ICON

Edited January 1 by TSNWK

[gooseyboy82]

 sheikhy 100% Icon moving to UKMO solution !! BOOM as ever more runs needed ! Think Arpege is a step behind … I expect ECM to move south later based on this from Icon 

[TEITS]

 HarvSlugger For the sake of your sanity and other members let's just see the run go beyond +48hrs!

[HarvSlugger]

Sad to see GFS constantly weakening heights around Greenland each run

[sheikhy]

This looks real bad from gfs!!

[Ali1977]

GFS Op not good, I’ll await the ENS!! Still expect plenty of snow even in my location though !!
Hopefully a solid UKMO and an ECM backtrack!! 

[clark3r]

We need the ukmo to stick to its guns tonight! We need some movement south from the ecm! Gfs well it’s changed so much over last couple of days.

[MJB]

 HarvSlugger Can I have tonight's winning lottery numbers please  

[mountsbaysnow]

 MJB 1,2,3,4,5 bonus 6,7

[mbrothers]

 MJB after one ball comment “this doesn’t look good “

[nick sussex]

The GFS is similar to the ICON so far at T66 hrs .

[phil nw.]

 Mike Poole

The waters are cooler towards the central Pacific currently Mike.

They are warmest around the maritime(Indonesia) where they stalled for a good while in December (phases 3/4/5)which as we know are the +ao/nao signatures.

Typically the mjo is now seeing convection damping down just when we needed to persist in 7/8/1.

[TSNWK]

 nick sussex models homing on a solution…

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS Op not good, I’ll

We are not at the point yet,I think it looks ok

[HarvSlugger]

 MJB the winning numbers are 990 because that's the pressure we want the low to be not stupid 970-980 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS further north east with the low, rain in the south coming

[CrushedSnow]

GFS looks a bit better to me

[WYorksWeather]

 Lukesluckybunch Key point is around days 4-5 - you're right, a bit of patience is required here (only a few minutes!).

[happyfoxyboy]

Happy new year everyone! Hope y'all have an amazing week and I wish everyone an healthy 2025 with hopefully lots of interesting weather events to come

GFS 12z has the low much flatter but Greenland heights definitely weaker. Will be interesting to see what happens next, here in The Netherlands its likely gonna turn very mild for a few days.

 

Edited January 1 by happyfoxyboy

[Frosty.]

Happy New Year All! …as for the models, it’s definitely going south! …all this north / south debate is making me dizzy!