Heavy Snow - 4-5th Jan - Amber warning issued

[Jordan S]

 nick sussex

Looks like more emphasis on a future deeper low with a tighter wraparound looking evident, closer to the GFS as it's leaving the east with a little more emphasis on that back edge rain/sleet/snow as far south as perhaps north Midland areas, though would have to see the next frame to check the detail on that out.

Edited January 4 by Jordan S

[Nick123]

 nick sussex does the snow line mean the low is further south or just the line of where the snow turns to rain is further south?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

 nick sussex where's the dam line?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 Jordan S bbc not interested all rain, or meto, FAX due to update soon

[nick sussex]

 Nick123

The latter so at midday tomorrow that’s edged around 50 miles further south.  

[Jordan S]

 I remember Atlantic 252

Yes just a possibility for now, but the GEM and GFS have picked up the possibility of some quite heavy back edge sleet/snow in the Midlands 

[nick sussex]

 Severe Siberian icy blast

They don’t have it on the T24hrs . Only T36hrs and onwards but north of the occlusion should be snow .

Until the UKMO shorter time frame steps comes out we won’t know how much if any progress the occlusion makes further north .

Edited January 4 by nick sussex

[jacksoo]

 Jayfromcardiff bummer, raining in Cardiff

[That ECM]

Not happy. Just got to hotel in the Cotswolds, no lamppost. Straight on to trip advisor 1 star.

[Sparky68]

Even my Nest App is showing Snow!

[Catacol]

 nick sussex I think it will nudge a tiny bit further south still from there. Pivot and elongate - cold air resistance. Low also slightly less deep. Every tiny shift key. A fascinating watch...

Edited January 4 by Catacol

[Mark Bayley]

@nick sussex UKMO HD is out on Metologix. Won't let me copy a link for some reason. The front has shifted north a little from earlier runs, but at 12pm the 0c 850hpa line is on the SY / WY border and just north of Manchester. It remains just south of Leeds. ICON HD and APEGE very similar (was closer to Ripon on the 6z). Could still end up 20 to 30 miles either side of that.

 

 

[minus10]

 nick sussex seems the 12z low is more elongated and flatter Nick..maybe bit more cold air resistance..?

[Sparky68]

Need a live snow tracker like Flightradar!

[birdman]

Still dry here in West Oxon. Anything expected here kind of lost track of all the updates?

[Ciarán]

 birdman Yes, probably a quick melt tomorrow late morning into the afternoon, but you will certainly see falling snow.

[gooseyboy82]

Yep rain here in Risca south wales …. Obvs the the ground soaked so be difficult to get anything settling as temps drip a bit 

[snowsure]

 Sparky68

#uksnow Map

UKSNOWMAP.COM

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See where it is snowing in the UK right now! UK Snow Map uses #uksnow posts to draw an up-to-the-minute map of where it is currently snowing in the UK.

 

[matty40s]

Everywhere West of Leicester should get a pasting except for Earl Shilton....

[nick sussex]

 Mark Bayley

The UKMO must have modified the raw output.

If you look at the fax chart the occlusion is south of Manchester . 
 

 

[Jordan S]

Treat the GFS and GEM with a little caution but noticeable uptick in back edge wintriness, this coincides with a deeper low in the east, Arpege and Icon have picked up the possibility albeit less so.

Gem..

Icon..

Arpege..

The middle ground between the high Res models and the GFS/GEM may prove closest on the dynamics, but just a slight bit more deepening of the low pressure system as it tracks into the east and slightly different orientation/precipitation intensity will make the difference between your plain old weather front passing through central/southern areas that has rain turning to a messy mix of rain/sleet to lower levels for most and a bit of hill snow for the Midlands or heavy low level snow falling widely along the very back edge of the frontal band.

@minus10

Possibly, but it has also picked up on a secondary centre positioned further to the southwest that merges with the rest of the system, the latter frame as I thought does show a tighter wraparound occlusion. 

Edited January 4 by Jordan S

[Mark Bayley]

@nick sussex and stays south..

[feb1991blizzard]

 Cheshire Freeze  cheese  Snowy L

Yes please - i might be somewhere decent by then like hudder or Buxton, Then again its not out the question i might be in a tent.

 bluearmy

Yes it did but it is still giving out nonsense snow totals for my location.

Edited January 4 by feb1991blizzard

[KTtom]

forecast 6 hours of snow last night is down to 3, currently raining?! Have the Met had another shocker?

[minus10]

If the radar is to be believed it seems the heavier precip getting into France is turning to snow...still waiting for the heavier stuff further north and east in the uk ?..