2025 Tornado Season

[WeatherArc]

Hello all and Happy New Year!

Wow, cant believe 2024 is already over, felt like it was just a few days ago when i made that topic, its been great interacting with you all and forecasting these events.

What an absolutely incredible year for tornadoes, 2024 now has the second most recorded tornadoes in US history and has managed to surpass the intense year of 2011!

There was also a new record set for the most tornadoes recorded in Oklahoma! 

So lets have a quick look back at some of the incredible storms and tornadoes of the year, absolutely incredible how many events occurred! Definitely the most active May we've had in a long time.

From April 26th to May 6th, every day featured photogenic tornadoes somewhere across the Great Plains!

One of the events that really stood out to me this year was the Hawley Texas tornado and the entire localised Texas tornado event in early May, multiple strong-violent tornadoes in a high cape but very low shear environment with no troughs or significant flow all storms relied on mesoscale interactions to put down tornadoes.

We had 4 EF4s last year,

Elkhorn/Omaha Nebraska EF4 (170mph) April 26th

2024 Elkhorn–Blair tornado - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Marietta, Oklahoma EF4 (170mph) April 27th

(tornado occurred late at night so not many videos)

Barnsdall, Oklahoma EF4 May 6th (High Risk Day) 180mph

Greenfield, Iowa EF4. May 21st. Official-185 mph, Unofficial-309–318 mph (Doppler on Wheels Estimate) 

And lets not forget the unexpected Hurricane Milton tornado outbreak in Florida

Ive probably missed a few events just from how insane the year was tornado wise, especially in the late april-late may corridor.

2024 also stands out for having a significantly lower death count (54) than other incredibly active years, likely in part thanks to streamers like Ryan Hall and Max Velocity, they have certainly saved the lives of countless individuals.

Lets hope 2025  continues the trend of incredibly photogenic tornadoes with a lower fatality count, will this be the year we finally have another big plains outbreak in Kansas? The last one was in 2012 so well overdue.

Looking very much forward to the start of tornado season again in just a few short months, lets see what 2025 has in store!

Will have another post out soon looking at a potential severe weather event in Dixie this Sunday

Edited January 3 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Our first potential significant day for severe weather this year looks to be January 5th, a large and amplified trough/jetstreak will eject across the Southern United States. This setup is similar to the one on December 28th, with a few differences. The thermodynamic profile looks weaker while shear looks much stronger, much more of a classic Dixie event for this time of year.

At the moment a linear QLCS/MCS looks likely with damaging winds and quick spin up tornadic circulations being the main threat, this is largely due to the limited warm sector and the progressive cold front moving through. 

The lack of moisture/large warm sector here is likely limiting a significant event, troughs looking like the one below usually spell trouble, especially with the way the 500mb jetstreak ejects. 

 

Edited January 3 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

The first US tornado of the 2025 season occurred in California on January 3rd. It has been rated EFU

Check out the forecasted environment! Temperatures only around 12 degrees but extremely cold upper level temperatures helped steepen lapse rates, bolstering instability. 

NWS SPC has issued a level 3/5 Enhanced risk for today, driven by a 10%# risk of strong tornadoes and a 30% risk of damaging winds.

This is mainly for a strong QLCS/Squall line that will move through the region, with the risk of quick spin up circulations putting down tornadoes on the line, however if prefrontal confluence bands can fire and sustain supercells in the open warm sector, a greater and more long tracked tornado threat may be realised. 

Edited January 5 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

We've currently been in a tornado drought for the past 2 months as the United States has been continually dominated by colder airmasses with deep fronts moving over the gulf of Mexico scouring out moisture, however i do have my eyes on a period in early February, decent support on the CFS supercell comp, nothing concrete at the moment but something to look out for.

Edited January 25 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Not seeing much of a severe threat for today, thick low level cloud cover will hold back instability/temps despite ample dewpoints and moderate upper level lapse rates.

 

Honestly id be eyeing up the post frontal environment in Oklahoma for a few potentially photogenic/nice looking isolated storms that are well sheared, little tornado potential on either setup today though imo, probs get some QLCS action in Louisiana my estimate would be 5-8 tornadoes today.

 

Looking ahead not much, 06z gfs has a really good setup but its at 378 hours out, tornado season begins in about 50 days so hopefully we start to see an uptick in these systems.

Looking forward to those beautiful days out on the plains.

 

Edited January 30 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

This is the most stupid thing ive ever seen in my life,

 

Edited January 31 by WeatherArc

[Robert1981]

That is madness there can't stop u chasing nature , probably one day our government will try something like this and I will ignore it. 

[WeatherArc]

Hmmm, bit too early for a 2025 tornado season forecast but some interesting features/analogs showing up

I would watch the southern US though, elevated drought conditions may lead to stronger EMLs and therefore stronger capping across the southern plains, well worth watching especially into late feb and early march.

Edited February 1 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Some interesting thoughts from Reed here about the incoming 2025 tornado season.

Heres our current SST anomalies with a visible La Nina. Other features include a positive NPO and  warm Western Pacific Oscillation.

Its been quiet across the US tornado wise for a while now, could that change soon? Well theres some signal in models that we will return to a period of troughing with significant moisture available, watch this place.

Edited February 3 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

A dangerous lone tornado warned supercell is currently approaching the city of Knoxville, Tennessee.

Edited February 7 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

The supercell near Knoxville, Tennesee last night produced a high end EF2 tornado, resulting in 2 deaths.

I mentioned in a post on Monday of the possibility of a pattern change across the US with more significant waves of troughing combining with moisture advection.

Currently looking at a potential large trough moving in around Saturday the 15th, will wait for more ensembles/models to get on board but looks pretty potent.

Euro

GFS

Edited February 7 by WeatherArc

[Mike Upjohn]

Day 6 15% risk now in place for Saturday 15th February - first Dixie event of the year now looks possible with a bit of moisture return, before a cold front pushes it away to the South and East.

[WeatherArc]

We are currently looking at two days of severe weather potential over the next week, Wednesday the 12th and Saturday the 15th

Wednesday the 12th will feature a disorganised trough moving across CONUS advecting strong moisture northwards, due to the cold air on the backside of this trough an amplified embedded jet streak will develop, allowing for a surface low to develop with a 40-60 knot 850mb LLJ. Moderate lapse rates will be advected across and ontop of this moisture, however it could be a pretty messy setup. 

Profiles show a very saturated (cloudy) low level up to around 850mb below an EML with a warm nose and drier air at 700mb. Due to the nature of the weaker trough im uncertain if it would be able to lift and cool this cap at 700mb.

Additionally, low level lapse rates are very weak at only 5c/km will limit updraft growth and cell maturity. The orientation of the cold front with shear vectors mostly parallel would favour less in the way of tornadoes/discrete storms, so any risk would likely come from warm sector development ahead of the front, given the weak low level lapse rates this may not occur. 

Im less confident on Wednesday, could be a moderate-big event but will have to see what things look like on the day of, right now im not expecting a significant event with the combination of weak low levels and warm air aloft. 

On Saturday the 15th a much stronger, mature trough will move across the CONUS with significant flow/jetstreak rounding the base and ejecting into the region. This looks like a system primed for a severe weather outbreak, however there are still some caveats. 

Rapid moisture advection will occur with this system, some regions will see a 25 degree dewpoint increase in 24 hours. Remember, we are now into mid February, while we will still have occasional moisture issues its much easier for systems to advect it northward, especially due to the SSTs in the GOM being above average. 

There is some evidence that atleast a moderate EML will overspread the warm sector with some steep mid level lapse rates

Both these factors should result in sbcape values of around 1,500-2,000 j/kg probably higher when CAMS get into range.

There should be at least moderate windshear with 0-3km SRH ranging from 125-350 m2, the weaker shear than expected with this system is due to the troughs maturity, causing 850mb winds to be veered (more south westerly than southerly) this can be an issue for tornado production, less so in Dixie but still a factor.

Another potential limiting factor is shear vectors being relatively parallel to the initiating cold front, this would favor a messier storm mode with less discrete cells. There is an opportunity for discrete warm sector development however due to the troughs maturity the main shortwave is displaced further north away from the warm sector, this may result in a lack of a forcing mechanism for discrete, warm sector storms to fire.

There is defo the potential for a significant event here, i can tell that just by looking at the trough however this is no slam dunk severe weather event, lots of ifs and buts to do with how this trough ejects that could limit the ceiling, would watch CAMS closely, NAM should be in range by tomorrow.

 

Edited February 10 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Interesting trend on both the GFS and Euro for our Saturday event, our mature trough has slowed and become more positively tilted, this has led to winds becoming more backed across the warm sector, increasing storm relative helicity and shear rates. While positively tilted troughs are less favorable in general for tornado outbreaks, there are many, many events where a positive tilt hasn't stopped a significant event, December 10th 2021 comes to mind as a recent example

Ill do a full analysis when the NAM comes into range however few things on latest gfs run that stand out.

700mb heights appears to show multiple confluence bands rotating through, these bands act as small scale forcing mechanisms, if you want discrete storms in the warm sector this is what you look for. If you look at 10m agl wind you can just about make out multiple convergence zones,

Another factor may promote discreteness, ive drawn the approximate positions of the cold front or 'initiating boundary' below with an orange line on a bulk shear vector map, note how our shear vectors to the east of the boundary are much more perpendicular than to the west, this should mean storms firing along the boundary will move eastwards away from the cold front rather than parallel up along the boundary crashing into each other, promoting a more messy storm mode. 

An example of this occurring is on Wednesdays event, where vectors are much more parallel to the boundary, promoting a messier storm mode.

Something that could be an issue for saturday however is the lapse rates, Dixie storms can often work with lower rates than those in the plains however, anything less than 6.5 in all three (upper, mid and lower) atmospheric lapse rates and i start to see problems. 

As pointed out on twitter the UKMet model is currently showing the potential ceiling for this event with a very potent looking shortwave trough that digs in and ejects with what looks like a slightly more neutral or even negative tilt, also shown is some very high (for this time of year) sbcape values ranging from 1,500 to 3,000 (Imo if we get moisture into the upper 60s with lapse rates closer to 7.0 or more then this amount of cape is very much possible)

The Ukmet isn't the most reliable model to say the least but something to keep an eye on as it is showing a very high end scenario for this event.

 

Edited February 11 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Now this is very interesting, 

We dont know how this will effect tornado season down the line, however when both the years 1974 and 2011 are mentioned im very interested. Both these years were very active and featured super outbreaks of 200+ tornadoes each. No that doesnt mean we are getting another super outbreak this year, however both these years featured above average tornado counts in general. 

1974 Super Outbreak - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

2011 Super Outbreak - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Away from the hype what could this mean? Well both years featured multiple large outbreaks across either Dixie or the Ohio Valley regions,

So going off both years this likely means the plains will be taking a backseat this year, it doesnt mean no tornadoes in the region (infact 2011 featured one of the best plains outbreaks in history, Oklahoma on May 24th) however i wouldnt be surprised to see only a few outbreaks here with much more focus on Dixie. 

Tornado outbreak sequence of May 21–26, 2011 - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Something to keep in mind going forward, with the official start of tornado season only about 30-40 days away (mid march) 

[WeatherArc]

A level 2/5 slight risk has been issued for today, although an upgrade to a level 3/5 enhanced risk is possible given trends. The risk is currently driven by a large 5% tornado risk and a large 15% wind risk with a smaller 5% hail risk.

Today has generally flown under my radar due to Saturdays more potent looking trough, however recent trends on the short range CAMS have been pretty interesting, the HRRR wants a lone isolated supercell to transit a favorable environmental corridor for all severe hazards, also looks like the cell is riding the boundary which will enhance its local low level shear  and vorticity.  

I dont think today will be a massive outbreak, however there is a chance of an isolated strong tornado or two should that lone supercell develop.

[Mike Upjohn]

And further to the above, it's now ENHANCED Risk with a 10% hatched tornado threat.

 

Eyes ahead to Saturday 15th which is now a 30% risk overall at Day 4!

I wonder if it's going to be one of those busy years with big setups?

[WeatherArc]

We now have an upgrade to a level 3/5 enhanced risk for both today and Saturday.

Wednesday 12th, significant model uptrends over the past 24 hours have lifted the warm sector way further north and increased the backing of low level wind, increasing low level shear.

An upgrade to a 10%# risk of strong tornadoes and 30% risk of damaging wind was issued by the spc.

Looking at model data i would say theres an increased chance of strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes and an isolated chance of an intense (EF4-EF5) tornado. 

The number of supercells that will be able to fire is still unclear, however the HRRR is still very confident on a lone cell firing and tracking across Mid Mississippi, moving into very favorable conditions.

 

Soundings taken from around inflow region of the cell

One caveat to this event however is the lapse rates, these do have less of an impact in Dixie but still, could be a problem for developing updrafts.

Saturday 15th, a rare 30% risk has been outlined for the region by the spc

We're in the midrange now where models will often drastically change, however the potential for a significant outbreak of severe weather is there.

Trends will be watched over next 80 hours. 

 

Edited February 12 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Multiple cells are now firing across the open warm sector, slight capping inversion in place keeping updrafts at bay right now but that shouldnt stop cells from developing and attempting to rotate.

 

[WeatherArc]

First tornado warnings of the day issued

This supercell is currently of concern, going through multiple mergers and quickly getting its act together, heading straight for the city of Hattiesburg (population 48,414)

 

[WeatherArc]

Our Hattiesburg cell is getting very close to putting a tornado down

 

[Eagle Eye]

Saturday looking very interesting on the models. Initial development around 17Z before upscaling may provide a risk for tornadoes before a linear transition where embedded Supercells are the most likely form of tornadic activity in the northern half of the risk beyond upscaling time. Then the risk transitions into southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi where warm sector development ahead of the QLCS should bring the risk for tornadic development if they manage to properly form as eventually they'll be embedded into the line but it'll be interesting to see. Furthermore, their interactions with the line may increase turbulent flow and risk strong tornadic development as the shear based interactions increase as the low-level jet surrounding the QLCS increases and that should increase the size of the low-level jet and increase tornadic risk.

Though looking at the closer to QLCS risk more and the base lifts slightly with weaker low-level moisture as it doesn't have the advantage of the warm air to moisten the air anymore. It's a balancing act of increase vorticity and helicity in the low-levels but the moisture is weaker somewhat. 

Initial development of the warm sector supercells.

The QLCS getting closer and the low-level interactions begin to influence the supercell's hodograph but also lead to a drying and cooling of the low-levels making them perhaps even more saturated with a risen boundary-layer but the saturation at the low-levels is pretty high either way anyway. But also a roughly 100 increase in the SRH with more vorticity and it's still mostly streamwise showing the balancing act that will likely go into tornado production which is important for meaning that the strength of a tornado that could develop in this scenario could really be anything comparing it to the previous scenario with an open warm sector but weaker shear especially at low-levels and less vorticity as well showing on models.

The main risk is tornadoes but there is somewhat a risk of hail due to the cool air's interaction with the dry mid-levels which is a recipe for hail production though it's unlikely to be severe due to limited shear favour as the strong shear rips apart hail quite often and should do here. Similarly there's a wind risk as the DCAPE is strong enough in areas for 40+ mph wind gusts during the QLCS pretty widespread which is fairly typical but I don't really see the severe wind risk at the moment as there's just not an incredible amount of energy due to the time of year mostly though some models do appear more favourable for severe wind strength as they suggest that most energy will be converted into DCAPE as the upscaling of the QLCS increases the favourability for the strong gusts.

[WeatherArc]

Absolutely no clue what to think of tomorrow, 

18z hrrr did increase warm sector forcing but still struggling to develop warm sector cells.

 

This is a sounding from central Louisiana at 23z, highlighted are my issues with this setup. 

1-EML/Warm nose at 700mb circled in blue, this area of drier and warmer temperatures aloft is going to supress updraft/developing storms strength, the reason Wednesdays event didn't start producing tornadoes till after dark was that storms formed but a warm nose at 700mb hindered intensification, with forcing already very subtle with this  trough it could really hinder the event.

A  Louisiana sounding from Wednesdays event storms initially struggled until after dark where an increasing LLJ and decreasing warm nose allowed for multiple tornadoes, some strong. 

2-Also circled in blue at the bottom of the sounding is the low level lapse rates, while 3cape is relatively high (100-200 j/kg) a low level lapse rate of only 6.0 will very likely hinder tornadogenesis, as well as causing problems for new updrafts to strengthen. 

Also tornadogenesis during the afternoon may be hindered by veering surface winds from the south west, winds do become more backed and to the south during evening though increasing storm relative helicity and clockwise curvature, plus vorticity becomes much more streamwise. 

Veered at 19z vs Backed at 23z 

Now that doesnt mean this setup wont produce severe weather, very likely we get multiple spinup circulations within the QLCS, theres also a high chance of damaging winds from the system and a high risk of flash flooding has been issued by the NWS for western Kentucky and northern Tennessee. However, how the warm sector develops is very much in the air right now, HRRR seems to be sniffing out a trend of stronger forcing that could help relieve some of our issues but difficult to say the end effect right now, will see what 00z runs do. 

[WeatherArc]

We have a level 3/5 Enhanced risk in place today for portions of Dixie alley, mainly Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas. This risk is driven by a 10%# risk for strong tornadoes, a 45% non hatched risk of damaging winds and a 5% risk of large hail. 

 

HRRR Model Analysis

Ive spoken about the problems with this trough before, its in a very mature state with the lead jetstreak of stronger 500mb winds already in Indiana/Ohio, neutrally tilted and only delivers a glancing blow to our warm sector region leading to strongest height falls and forcing being displaced away from instability. A crashing cold front limits northward extent of warm front and quickly absorbs any warm sector cells.  Also the way the trough ejects leads to little cold upper air temps overlapping our warm sector, significantly reducing lapse rates throughout the atmosphere. 

 

Purple circle, QLCS system. Main Threats, damaging wind gusts up to 60-80 mph, quick spin up circulations. Due to the line being more NE to SW orientated, there is less of a risk of these spinup tornadoes and a higher chance of outflow dominated line sections, however with the strong shear i would still expect a few. 

 

Pink circle, to the north of the warm front a sustained band of rain will train areas of western Kentucky and northern Tennessee, this has led to a high risk of flash flooding being issued due to the potential for 15+ hours of sustained precipitation over the region combined with strong convective rainfall from the cold front on already saturated ground.

 

Green circle, most unclear threat however the potential does exist for 1-5 discrete cells to develop in the open warm sector, forcing and height falls is extremely subtle over this region and a small inversion at 700mb may also act to supress updraft development, however as the cold front approaches an increase in forcing may allow a window for discrete cells to develop in a favorable environment before being absorbed by the line. Most likely region for this is Northern Mississippi or central Tennessee.

Currently the observed dewpoints and cape is higher than what the HRRR was going with, the effect on storms is unclear right now.

However, another issue ive seen mentioned is that the strong windshear may act to tear these struggling updrafts apart, storms can often overcome this with mergers (example-Rolling Fork EF4, March 24th 2023) however with little prefrontal action there may not be any mergers for storms to work with.

One way we could see an intense tornado today is that a cluster of updrafts merge into a mature cell and begins to interact with the QLCS leading to something like an outflow surge from the line that helps it to put a strong or intense tornado down for a window before the cell is absorbed.

Below is example, Barnsdall EF4, May 6, 2024.

This has been a recent trend , will see what happens, could be interesting. Again, Tennessee is the place where all our ingredients come together to promote discrete storms with tornado potential, models do really struggle in winter time weak forcing environments so seeing this trend is a little concerning. 

 

 

 

*Nothing to do with todays setup*

Was a little bored and found myself on the tornado archive website, just looking through the 'surprise me' option that gives a random tornado event and managed to get the April 3rd 1974 superoutbreak.

What an absolutely insane day, i just cant imagine anything like this happening again, 7 EF5s, 23 EF4s, 34 EF3s! For comparison the last significant outbreak in tornado numbers, March 31st 2023 had 1 EF4, 11 EF3s and 32 EF2s. Imo April 3rd was even more significant than April 27th 2011 and likely the most intense tornado outbreak on the planet since records began.

April 3rd 1974 vs March 31st 2023.

But looking at the setup synoptically, everything is basically perfect for a significant outbreak, while we didnt have accurate weather modeling back then, a glance at that trough at 500mb and you know it means business! (Also note the similarities/differences to March 31st/April 27th 2011 some nice outbreak pattern recognition here)

Large longwave trough with negative tilt, strong ejecting jetstreak rounding the base into an exit region perfectly positioned over warm sector, moderate height falls over the region that are strong enough to promote storm development but weak enough to promote storm discreteness.

 

 

Also present, a strong surface low of 984mb created by the powerful upper level jet thats also being squeezed by high pressure over the Atlantic, with extreme low level jet/shear of 50-80 knots. Cape values are into the extreme range, especially with southern extent, reaching almost 6,000 j/kg promoting explosive updraft development. Hodographs just absolutely scream violent, long tracked, fairly photogenic/visible tornadoes. Lots of streamwise vorticity present. 

Extreme cape was fuelled by temperatures ranging from the mid 20Cs to low 30Cs and dewpoints ranging from 15-23C, also present was an extremely uncommon (for the region) area of steep mid level lapse rates, of around 7.0-8.0 c/km. These steep lapse rates would of likely been brought in by a significant EML originating from Mexico. 

Edited February 15 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Once again, both 2011 and 1974 are being mentioned as years that look similar to the upcoming 2025 tornado season

Also, today has significantly been undercooked on all models in terms of instability, we're seeing 2,000 j/kg sbcape in places meant to see only 1,000. Still unclear if we see prefrontal cells that can get rooted in the environment but today is certainly looking interesting. 

Here's the HRRR trend over the past 12+ hours, prefrontal convection still unclear but more common in recent runs, the most significant trend has been the slowing of the cold front/QLCS.