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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

Hello all and Happy New Year!

Wow, cant believe 2024 is already over, felt like it was just a few days ago when i made that topic, its been great interacting with you all and forecasting these events.

What an absolutely incredible year for tornadoes, 2024 now has the second most recorded tornadoes in US history and has managed to surpass the intense year of 2011!

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There was also a new record set for the most tornadoes recorded in Oklahoma! 

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So lets have a quick look back at some of the incredible storms and tornadoes of the year, absolutely incredible how many events occurred! Definitely the most active May we've had in a long time.

From April 26th to May 6th, every day featured photogenic tornadoes somewhere across the Great Plains!

One of the events that really stood out to me this year was the Hawley Texas tornado and the entire localised Texas tornado event in early May, multiple strong-violent tornadoes in a high cape but very low shear environment with no troughs or significant flow all storms relied on mesoscale interactions to put down tornadoes.

We had 4 EF4s last year,

Elkhorn/Omaha Nebraska EF4 (170mph) April 26th

Marietta, Oklahoma EF4 (170mph) April 27th

(tornado occurred late at night so not many videos)

Barnsdall, Oklahoma EF4 May 6th (High Risk Day) 180mph

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Greenfield, Iowa EF4. May 21st. Official-185 mph, Unofficial-309–318 mph (Doppler on Wheels Estimate) 

And lets not forget the unexpected Hurricane Milton tornado outbreak in Florida

Ive probably missed a few events just from how insane the year was tornado wise, especially in the late april-late may corridor.

2024 also stands out for having a significantly lower death count (54) than other incredibly active years, likely in part thanks to streamers like Ryan Hall and Max Velocity, they have certainly saved the lives of countless individuals.

Lets hope 2025  continues the trend of incredibly photogenic tornadoes with a lower fatality count, will this be the year we finally have another big plains outbreak in Kansas? The last one was in 2012 so well overdue.

Looking very much forward to the start of tornado season again in just a few short months, lets see what 2025 has in store!

Will have another post out soon looking at a potential severe weather event in Dixie this Sunday

Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

Our first potential significant day for severe weather this year looks to be January 5th, a large and amplified trough/jetstreak will eject across the Southern United States. This setup is similar to the one on December 28th, with a few differences. The thermodynamic profile looks weaker while shear looks much stronger, much more of a classic Dixie event for this time of year.

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At the moment a linear QLCS/MCS looks likely with damaging winds and quick spin up tornadic circulations being the main threat, this is largely due to the limited warm sector and the progressive cold front moving through. 

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The lack of moisture/large warm sector here is likely limiting a significant event, troughs looking like the one below usually spell trouble, especially with the way the 500mb jetstreak ejects. 

image.thumb.png.a83f99ec6ca3fde6f40d04183cbd7aaf.pngimage.thumb.png.bb539ff4283c414beb4bd38dcd0f83b5.pngimage.thumb.png.7c620fe62a76047d0b2d3fc4a6e1f18d.png

 

Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

The first US tornado of the 2025 season occurred in California on January 3rd. It has been rated EFU

Check out the forecasted environment! Temperatures only around 12 degrees but extremely cold upper level temperatures helped steepen lapse rates, bolstering instability. 

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NWS SPC has issued a level 3/5 Enhanced risk for today, driven by a 10%# risk of strong tornadoes and a 30% risk of damaging winds.

This is mainly for a strong QLCS/Squall line that will move through the region, with the risk of quick spin up circulations putting down tornadoes on the line, however if prefrontal confluence bands can fire and sustain supercells in the open warm sector, a greater and more long tracked tornado threat may be realised. 

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Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 1
  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

We've currently been in a tornado drought for the past 2 months as the United States has been continually dominated by colder airmasses with deep fronts moving over the gulf of Mexico scouring out moisture, however i do have my eyes on a period in early February, decent support on the CFS supercell comp, nothing concrete at the moment but something to look out for.

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Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

Not seeing much of a severe threat for today, thick low level cloud cover will hold back instability/temps despite ample dewpoints and moderate upper level lapse rates.

image.thumb.png.33f8ad6dccc41ca90d8ada4f943a55b4.pngimage.thumb.png.1a1055078e52fd5bb51acddcd74700f6.pngimage.thumb.png.967a633c925f336125036f1bebdbc479.pngimage.thumb.png.98ce82b2503052c4252b803bd510fd86.png 

Honestly id be eyeing up the post frontal environment in Oklahoma for a few potentially photogenic/nice looking isolated storms that are well sheared, little tornado potential on either setup today though imo, probs get some QLCS action in Louisiana my estimate would be 5-8 tornadoes today.

image.thumb.png.9780b7bf39e83a2caf89e778623bc10f.pngimage.thumb.png.2156ab177e5bebe090e836357eb86e7c.pngimage.thumb.png.41aa06d728605f8e2663a0e12ea2b299.pngimage.thumb.png.9019949b653d29adfd45741e57df022d.pngimage.thumb.png.2cd8295219b88c1655fc2c699bd27949.pngimage.thumb.png.dbbed201ea720e0e860c45ac90ca1ad4.pngimage.thumb.png.74ed53c3cd2024d89e57b5aee8cb56a6.png 

Looking ahead not much, 06z gfs has a really good setup but its at 378 hours out, tornado season begins in about 50 days so hopefully we start to see an uptick in these systems.

image.thumb.png.20ba6f7b7b29d9bdb818b9865ed99911.pngimage.thumb.png.683593730fe3660794779110f1b6ec74.pngimage.thumb.png.bf6704d4a1564f08fcbf9d76c33138ec.pngimage.thumb.png.d629ce9f3d2387e75e77dc4c9b69cbb3.pngimage.thumb.png.64b64446b8e8b32db40d98fa0a511d1c.pngimage.thumb.png.6fd2b786698838eda58203b6856faa37.pngimage.thumb.png.31f2541597f27459c33c47c0212f3b7a.pngimage.thumb.png.f2d6dd31374f5ce229dc9d4434e3806e.pngimage.thumb.png.b36eab961f5148c4a87d8160b686dfe8.pngimage.thumb.png.61fa8c1c200988081876c6aa1b1c3fea.png

Looking forward to those beautiful days out on the plains.

 

Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

This is the most stupid thing ive ever seen in my life,

 

Edited by WeatherArc
Posted
  • Location: Norwich,Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms /winter storms and blizzards.
  • Location: Norwich,Norfolk.
Posted

That is madness there can't stop u chasing nature , probably one day our government will try something like this and I will ignore it. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

Hmmm, bit too early for a 2025 tornado season forecast but some interesting features/analogs showing up

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I would watch the southern US though, elevated drought conditions may lead to stronger EMLs and therefore stronger capping across the southern plains, well worth watching especially into late feb and early march.

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Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

Some interesting thoughts from Reed here about the incoming 2025 tornado season.

Heres our current SST anomalies with a visible La Nina. Other features include a positive NPO and  warm Western Pacific Oscillation.

image.thumb.png.dc2af81aa9868a285f28287f8fec4f37.png

Its been quiet across the US tornado wise for a while now, could that change soon? Well theres some signal in models that we will return to a period of troughing with significant moisture available, watch this place.

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Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

A dangerous lone tornado warned supercell is currently approaching the city of Knoxville, Tennessee.

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Edited by WeatherArc
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

The supercell near Knoxville, Tennesee last night produced a high end EF2 tornado, resulting in 2 deaths.

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I mentioned in a post on Monday of the possibility of a pattern change across the US with more significant waves of troughing combining with moisture advection.

Currently looking at a potential large trough moving in around Saturday the 15th, will wait for more ensembles/models to get on board but looks pretty potent.

Euro

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GFS

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Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 1

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