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Posted
  • Location: Rainham Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow all the way
  • Location: Rainham Kent
Posted

Cant’ we enjoy just a bit of ‘hope’ ? Some people just love to look at everything so negatively😢

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

 Biensie its the hope that kills you as they say.

Facts are the facts.. we might be in different place in 30 mins if GFS and UKM behave.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
Posted

Surely the hi res models will give us the best idea 

Posted
  • Location: Cullompton, Devon
  • Location: Cullompton, Devon
Posted (edited)

 Mcconnor8 UKV precipitation type (In house Met Office product) shows it falling mostly as snow but with patchy accumulations.

I will be submitting the +48 and +60 charts later this afternoon. Will let you know when they’ve been submitted. They normally appear publicly shortly after.

Edited by manutdmatt1986
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Keynsham, Bristol
Posted

GFS 12z is the example of what a small shift north can do, rather than <1cm accumulations you're looking at 2-5cm widely. That solution is definitely in the realms of possibility.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

image.thumb.png.cec12dc5d8e88218bfd8ccb876fdce6a.pngimage.thumb.png.297bb8aa9fda035e002c53c886b26eac.pngGfs works well, actually colder as well for 850s as well?image.thumb.png.cec12dc5d8e88218bfd8ccb876fdce6a.png  

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

 clark3r time to charge that battery! Hope the GFS is correct. 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
Posted

 Neilsouth I'll take the first one 🙏 

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

What’s really good on GFS is that although is further north the colder uppers are little more south - I dont understand that really, but not going to argue 😉

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

 TSNWK When the warmer uppers push further North they can 'squeeze' the cold air into a smaller area which creates pockets of cooler uppers, alongside evaportative cooling from heavy convection that also can lower uppers slightly.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
Posted

 Chrisover93

You’re right. The south coast always hogs all the snow, said no one ever.

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
Posted

 Mcconnor8 Snizzle alert!

Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

17361793495444992545171772498550.thumb.png.c22774e3cde401c413eedc6ff0850c37.png

There's always Friday as well on the GFS haha

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

 Mcconnor8 as long as it's not another poxy snow to rain event. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 danm GFS has it modelled as a snow to nothing event as high pressure starts to win out against the shortwave

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

1736179707444573302047261155299.thumb.png.ebc13e231b3266273a47ca9b9842228e.png

GEM still quite far North on the 12z

As is the GFS Control.

17361798008645218829346603468362.thumb.png.670c5dea6f7388768a34da9f12c58a90.png

GEFS Mean moves North as well

17361798939308889555460438680006.thumb.png.3159afae3e04694d7d46f9998dfcf4c2.png1736179913816575415566838272710.thumb.png.826dc5bfdffb99ab8e4cd764c0e94050.png

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

Fridays low is looking very interesting for snow!

Been showing this for days now

Hopping the low doesn't fizzle like some models

Someone even said it stalls across the country😍❄️

 Mcconnor8 interesting!

The gfs mean is way better for the SW of the UK👀

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
Posted

Let's stick to Wednesday in this thread

 

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
Posted

2nd chart from the ECMWF Control Forecast (ex-HRES). Total snowfall during last 6 hours

Info - "Forecast precipitation is considered to be snow if the temperature of the model atmosphere above and at the ground surface is forecast to be below 0°C.  Where the ground surface lies near the 0°C level (e.g. near the top of the forecast melting layer) the precipitation is mainly snow that is just starting to melt, and the precipitation type is diagnosed as wet snow.

Snowfall amounts over 6 hours (in mm rainfall equivalent) are shown using colour shading – As a rough guide 1 mm rainfall equivalent approximates to 1 cm of snowfall.    

The charts show totals of all precipitation considered to be falling as snow at the ground surface over the 6 hour period previous to the selected validity time, and are shown in mm of rainfall equivalent. This does not necessarily mean that snow was forecast for the whole period and precipitation may have turned from snow to rain (or vice versa) during the 6 hour period. Neither do forecast snowfall amounts imply that all the forecast snowfall will remain as accumulated snow at the surface. They do however give an indication of areas at risk of hazardous conditions.  "

0106nextwedspress (1).png

Screenshot 2025-01-06 16.18.54.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

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