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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

GEM big step towards the other models today with the front only really giving any noticeable snow to S.Wales and parts of the SW before decaying quickly and fizzling. 

Think we are clearly moving towards the ECM original solution, with only very marginal movements of the ECM towards the more progressive solution.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

 Jordan S what do we need to see. For signs that the front wont weaken/fizzle as much?

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
Posted

 kold weather from an IMBY perspective if it makes it to the S Wales valleys then I’ll be happy! 
Still time for changes considering tomorrow’s effort is still causing headaches. As they say small changes short term can great bigger ones down the line! 

 HarvSlugger I guess more cross model agreement would be a bonus lol. Gfs and ukmo were pretty rubbish last weekend. ECM was king. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted

 HarvSlugger

Really you'd want pressure to be lower ahead of it, so unless the other models are overestimating the highs influence/progression southeast (quite unlikely) then the Arpege/ECM outcome is probably closest to reality.

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
Posted

Anyone got the 12z ECM’s view of Fridays shenanigans plz?   

Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

 Jayfromcardiff it's still a tiny bit better than the 00z but yes still basically nothing 😑

Met office in their deep dive did not say anything good, they basically expect nothing of the low😂😂

Most likely over now tbh

GFS will follow the rest and that's the cold spell done. Worst one I've ever had I think😂

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

I wonder if the pub run will follow the rest of the models or still show alot of precipitation 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted

The UKMO model interestingly is a bit more progressive with the front, but more marginal with mostly rain/sleet.

ukmohd-1-66-0(2).thumb.png.2688c6fa7a88e6fd12b843735a0c73b5.png

ukmohd-1-72-0.thumb.png.8b90b59f6126f1b1eeea93bdb1665f85.png

ukmohd-1-75-0.thumb.png.5f1438e3bafe5388de0367db579a3d2a.png

Localised high ground of south Wales would get perhaps a very light covering if this output is correct but that's it, it's really not looking significant at this stage either way, though I have seen past systems that have travelled in a similar way and given some western parts a covering, though not every event will pan out the same even with similarities, so don't discount the weather front entirely, but treat the more "ambitious" GFS runs showing so much more snow currently with a large amount of caution as anything significant snow wise is unlikely.

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted (edited)

The FAX chart shows a low pressure cell moving in quite far north with a frontal feature, places further north could see some decent fall if the precipitation is heavy enough, the cold surface air will help. Something to watch, a developing situation. 

Edited by damianslaw
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

I can't see the pub run still showing the precipitation going well inland, surely gonna follow the other models now sadly. We'll see

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

Looks like GFS is sticking to it's guns👀🤞❄️

gfs-2-60.thumb.png.36d61b374d93c665e05c2b86fc34d4e6.png

gfs-2-66(1).thumb.png.8aa1089f590f96b0e02ef01ad58b4715.png

gfs-2-72(3).thumb.png.c92b6776c7935102780acdbad81394b4.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

ecmwfeu-2-60.thumb.png.a9170a304e7c07edefa951ae208b8515.png

ecmwfeu-2-66.thumb.png.0863d01d9608f61c7af2ce90f1bbfadc.png

ECM AI looks good for Fridays precipitation

It goes off past events so I'm thinking it would be quite good in this situation?

Maybe it knows they don't tend to fizzle as much as models are showing

Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

GFS is not backing down!

gfs-2-54.thumb.png.c0db6c2ebb45c33e68ed65b2015fd012.png

It's actually an upgrade from it's previous run👀❄️🤞

Posted
  • Location: Crundale, Haverfordwest
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Crundale, Haverfordwest
Posted

 HarvSlugger surprise warning ⚠️ not for Friday though

Screenshot_20250108_103251_Chrome.jpg

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
Posted

 HarvSlugger GFS hasn’t done “that” bad with its handling of todays potential in the south of England so there is a glimmer of hope here for Friday 

 

 danthetan Looks like tonight will throw a few more surprises our way with instability forecast overnight and into Thursday on what will be the coldest night of winter so far. 
 

As we ALWAYS say, get the cold in and snow opportunities will always pop up at short notice! 

On another note the roads here are lethal. Several accidents meant that we were an hour late dropping our son off at school! 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey
  • Location: Purley, Surrey
Posted

Pert 14 on the GEFS would be nice.  Snow today, friday and then a much better positioned high to maintain surface cold. We can only dream! 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Crundale, Haverfordwest
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Crundale, Haverfordwest
Posted

 JamesL yes as the low clears east the Northerly winds take over creating a convergence line down the Irish sea I see that Cornwall has a warning to so looks straight Northerly for a while I've just looked on windy app due to turn NW so should push inland towards your location. I was up in Tredegar working yesterday was icy and slight dusting which probably froze hard last night. I'm not surprised the roads are bad at the top of the valleys. 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
Posted

 danthetan I would like Pembs to get some snow tonight. Hopefully a dangler will set up for those of you out west! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

 JamesL I looked at the winds for tonight it's only a NNW to N for 4 hours, so I doubt a Pembrokeshire dangler will form.

Would've been nice with the coldest night of the spell too❄️

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Monmouth - 280 ft asl
  • Location: Monmouth - 280 ft asl
Posted

Looks like its game over now doesn't it?

Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

 Cwmbran Eira yes it really does...

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