Is cold weather making a comeback?

[Jackmonday06]

Some people might heavily disagree with me but it’s just a debate.

It seems compared to winter weather let’s say a decade ago where we were getting complete winters flops like February 2014 and December 2015 winter weather seems to be improving since winter 2020/2021 we have had the coldest January since 2010 the coldest December since 2010 the coldest London night in years I believe ( January 2023)  and the coldest January night in 15 years as well as some great snowfalls like February 2021 January 2025 and even in the mild winters of recent years there has at least been an attempt at cold weather January 2022/2024 etc. I’m not saying we’re about to enter a mini ice age or anything haha but it seems we’re in a better era for cold weather than a decade ago or so.

Edited January 13 by Jackmonday06

[Methuselah]

 Jackmonday06

I don't think cold weather is making a comeback exactly, but there will always be times when the effects of GW are overridden by random fluctuation. If we do get a colder and snowier winter this year, we'd better make sure we enjoy it!  

[danm]

 Jackmonday06 not sure about that. The long term trend is towards warmer Winters and less snowfall. Within that long term warming trend, you will still get cold spells and colder Winters. 

[TheOgre]

You say that but Winter 2014/15 had a few wintry snaps and a few years later there was Winter 2017/18 which was a cold one.

[StretfordEnd1996]

3 minutes ago, TheOgre said:

You say that but Winter 2014/15 had a few wintry snaps and a few years later there was Winter 2017/18 which was a cold one.

They are 7 and 10 years ago though - not exactly recent anymore

[TheOgre]

 StretfordEnd1996 Exactly he was saying winters are trending colder than in that era but I was highlighting two winters which featured cold.

[StretfordEnd1996]

 TheOgre Yes sorry I may of misunderstood 

[Jackmonday06]

 TheOgre I was more highlighting December 2013 to December 2017. Around a decade or more ago.

Edited January 13 by Jackmonday06

[SiGh]

 Jackmonday06 just normal fluctuations in British Winters. 

Jeez, it's only 3 months ago that some posters on here were 'buying' into the carp about the South never seeing lying snow again. Exagerrated tosh fed by the CC zealots.

Well and truly consigned to the 'sensationalism' dustbin. 

[Methuselah]

 SiGh

Now who's exaggerating? 

[ANYWEATHER]

 SiGh  This cc debate has been going on toooooo loooolong.  But anyway agree with your sentiments along with a growing myriad of people around the world......

[Rob 79812010]

 Jackmonday06 Not sure about that but probably not I would have thought. From my location in Manchester, 85 metres, what I can say with confidence is that we get way more snowfalls in winter than in the 70s to 90s. We've had lying snow for 9 out of the last 10 years. A chap on the NW group feels our cold synoptic are more NW driven in recent times rather that NE driven which was more the case in the past. Manchesters notable snowfalls in my lifetime, 79, 81, 96 and 2010 were all Irish Sea events barring 96 which was a true easterly. And most of the smaller snowfalls the same. Maybe, maybe not but could be on  to something. Apparently 63 was an Arctic low which are rare but when they happen can deliver. Before my time though 

[raz.org.rain]

Long term multidecadal variability will continue to have an effect locally, but the general trend suggests that colder extremes will be less frequent in future. It's no secret that the climatology of NW Europe isn't as simple as observing one or two variables, there's multiple variables with some fluctuating independently from each other. How those changing combinations interact with each other will result in differing anomalies for us. So generally speaking, our climate is variable on a longer term basis, but there's a consistent identifiable warming trend.

[Jackmonday06]

Just want to make clear I do believe in global warming haha it’s just something I noticed.

[Freeze]

Absolutely not, cold weather is so difficult to come by these days, a few days below average is all we seem to manage now.

[lassie23]

No the next cold spell is due in 2033

[Ross90]

I don't think cold weather is that hard to come by, at least across the northern half of the UK. The biggest difference over the last decade or so in my opinion is that cold weather with snow has become much more rare, as soon as there's a westerly or even NW element to the weather it's too mild for snow. Weather that brings longer cold spells is more likely to be dry these days, either that or it transitions back to rain too quickly when a front bumps into it from the west.

Edited January 13 by Ross90

[danm]

We've had our share of decent snow events over the last 15 years - each winter between 2008/09 and 2012/13 gave at least one big dump. Some gave a few dumps. 

We then had a bunch of winters between 2013/14 to 2015/16 with very little to no snow. Then we had a good fall in December 2017 and the beast from the east in 2018 with 4/5 days of good snowfall. A couple of small snowfalls in 2019, another 4/5 days in Feb 2021 due to a quite potent easterly, snow at the end of Jan 2021 too, then a 6 inch fall in December 2022 that lasted a week on the ground. 

So snowfall does still happen, but what I am noticing happening more frequently are entire Winters with zero snow, or just a fleeting fall with nothing settling. Whereas in the past you'd almost always get at least one fairly good snowfall per Winter, now you can get a run of a few Winters in a row with virtually nothing. Maybe it's just all part of the natural variability of our weather, but I can't help the increase in snowless Winters is down to CC. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Ross90 correct!

[Sceptilli0naire]

No.

Every winter since 2017/18 has been warmer than the 1991-2020 average, aside from 2020/21. Since 2019 only a small handful of months have been below 1991-2020 averages - January, February and April 2021, December 2022, July 2023, June 2024, September 2024 and now quite probably January 2025. As far as I'm aware, only April 2021 and December 2022 out of those were below 61-90 averages. For the first time, not a single month was below 1961-1990 averages in 2024.

As we don't live in the 1991-2020 climate anymore, and right in the middle of what will eventually be the 2011-2040 climate, it's important to keep in mind that by those averages when they do exist, June 2024 thru January 2025 will be a significantly cooler than average period, aside from December which was the joint-seventh mildest on record. As an entire period the second half of 2024 will probably end up being a couple degrees below average. Today, such six months period are some of the colder ones on record.

This is how high the floor now is: The second half of 2024 by what will be the median average of the period, will have been significantly cool, with perhaps December being the only month of the set above 2011-2040 averages.

Something like February 2021 or December 2022 is probably now as much of a freak as something like January 2010 was.

Freaks will always occur; every 50 or so years back in the supposed "Little Ice Age" they got a very warm summer comparable to above average summers today, and similar with mild winters, but no one apart from grifters and the clueless would disagree that the climate was considerably cooler back then.

1 hour ago, Jackmonday06 said:

I do believe in global warming haha

It's not a matter of belief; anthropogenic climate change is an observable fact.

14 minutes ago, danm said:

but I can't help the increase in snowless Winters is down to CC

UK winters, especially in the English lowlands, were already pretty borderline with only a few snow events a year on average, so an increase of 1.5°C, which is where we are now at or at least will be by the late 2020s, is enough to start pushing those borderline events out, combined with the other feedbacks that occur at such a temperature increase such as warmer average air and ocean temperature.

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

This cc debate has been going on toooooo loooolong.  But anyway agree with your sentiments along with a growing myriad of people around the world......

And the pro-extinctionists such as yourself have won said debate with money, propaganda and grifting. I will now observe catastrophic ecological failure and the start of a K-Pg level event in my lifetime, which will undoubtebly lead to the extinction of humanity too, and nothing can be done about it at this stage without drastic, violent action that very few people seem to be willing to take. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Pat yourself on the back.

[Sun dog]

Since the mid 80's the frequency of snowfall seems to have declined and widespread snow has become an extreme event. If climate change increases the chances of extreme events perhaps we'll end up with more snow

[WYorksWeather]

I don't think we can really say cold weather is making any sort of comeback. This winter has seen the first reasonably notable cold spell in historic terms (i.e. compared to 1961-1990 averages) since December 2022, with the last two winters featuring very little. Comparing to an absolute worst-case for winter weather like 2015/16 is a bit of a false comparison - there's a lot of sensitivity to the starting year.

It's the same issue in the climate change debate - a lot of people tried to claim no warming had occurred by starting in 1998, which was not matched for quite a few years, since it was an extremely strong El Nino. They got quieter in the mid to late 2000s when it was matched, and quieter still in the 2010s when that record was utterly obliterated.

Probably the next step I expect to see at some point in the next 10-20 years or so is a winter which is completely autumnal throughout, without any recognisable cold spell whatsoever. Something like a winter composed of December 2015, January 2007, and February 2024.

[SiGh]

 WYorksWeather "to see at some point in the next 10-20 years or so is a winter which is completely autumnal throughout, without any recognisable cold spell "

In my 63 years living in Bristol i've experienced plenty of these - certainly no need to wait another 10-20 years; it's happened in numerous years past

Edited January 13 by SiGh

[WYorksWeather]

 SiGh Not as extreme as that, though. Most winters at least have a colder spell with a few frosts at some point!

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Sceptilli0naire said:

And the pro-extinctionists such as yourself have won said debate with money, propaganda and grifting. I will now observe catastrophic ecological failure and the start of a K-Pg level event in my lifetime, which will undoubtebly lead to the extinction of humanity too, and nothing can be done about it at this stage without drastic, violent action that very few people seem to be willing to take. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Pat yourself on the back.

Nature will always win, just wait and see.....