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Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

Still pretty big disagreement on some models, e.g UKMO 0z and GEM 0z at Day 4 compared to GFS 6z.

17373674654378843549646354504777.thumb.gif.5a056d123db4a6776393ec3c6661b40b.gif17373674742294372008375630326021.thumb.png.8241150814299f646aaa695210c12eba.png17373674886117244542890566133873.thumb.png.8a76ec2ee4a6ccc8ae06e03f766c7d17.png

As a result of this earlier rapid deepening the UKMO and GEM both take it further North West than the GFS, strange as usually it is the GFS eager to rapidly intensify lows.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Yellow wind warning now issued for NI, along with SW, Central and NW Scotland + Highland & Islands. Very early but probably justified now rather than later.

Edited by A Face like Thunder
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell
Posted

The met forecast for here on Friday still isn't having it with sustained winds around 15mph. Bbc has gusts in the low 50s but nowhere near what some of the models are suggesting.

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted

 Ross90  They still think that it is most likely to head NE rather than East across us so we will miss the worst of it if they are correct.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Ross90 That's due to UKMO model currently having the storm further West than the ECM and GFS models, hopefully we get closer agreement on the track between all the models in the next couple of days

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

 lassie23 Me too, we've had enough of this dismal junk since July 2023 to last a lifetime.

To the weather gods: Autumn is September, October and November. Autumnal weather should stay where it belongs, in autumn, rather than invading the rest of the year. 😉

We never get snow in September. We never get 30C in March. So we shoudn't get October/November weather now!

Edited by Summer8906
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

17373804293919181621970754462906.thumb.png.efaeb1229e6a3de736d96a1940288ec4.png17373804588451237619122389350517.thumb.png.5c0e936d0acf88aad8de198de3862885.png17373804974787290300578214865141.thumb.png.6ce7106efc5de45aa54ceff3e7cb6137.png

ECM 6z looks pretty brutal for Ireland in particular, gusts on Friday afternoon and the max gusts throughout the event shown.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted

 A Face like Thunder Surprised that northern England isn't in the warning zone as it stands, even accounting for the fact it's been issued well in advance.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
Posted

The UKV charts are just trickling in now, a grim outlook for Western Isles from this gust chart on Friday.  Yellow wind warnings are an early heads-up for travel disruption in exposed parts for the end of the week in regions where options will be limited.

Met Eireann "On Thursday night and during Friday, a deepening Low-Pressure system is forecast to track close to Ireland. Very strong winds are likely across the country with the potential for damaging wind gusts and disruption in places. High seas and spells of heavy rain are expected also." 

0120corewinds.png

0120warnwk2Ymat.png

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)

Screenshot2025-01-20at15_28_50.thumb.png.ceea1c8f997251aebd0f40cc388dfc1f.pngScreenshot2025-01-20at15_31_23.thumb.png.84d481812fd46280918be04b91653f20.png

 

Edited by danm
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

12z GFS pretty brutal for Northern Ireland with gusts over 90mph and a low of around 930mb passing to the NW of Donegal.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

I have a suspicion this storm may edge further S a tad in future output. Looks a nasty one for sure.

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted (edited)

 mountain shadow 930 mb, incredible really. Like a singularity in physics. Sucking everything in. 

 

ECM Friday at 7.00 am. Windy.com does great graphics. Pressure in this case

image.thumb.png.b9d2c16a570128f626cc935829a2b241.png

UKV

 

100 mph gusts Donegal coast, with sustained 60mph. Out at see 130 mph gusts over a large area. Spanish fishing trawlers will still be out 

image.thumb.png.2dc1f4a3e8a4eba61cea9491deb41b2d.png

Edited by Downburst
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

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GFS is indeed brutal during Friday for Ireland, Northern England and Scotland

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Penguin16 GFS can overdo inland gusts sometimes due to the lower resolution compared to the ECM for example, but with the modelled pressure of sub 940mb there would be very high gusts inland as well.

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)

Arpege 12z is an eye opener for that intensity. Pressure down to 927mb reached as the centre gets close before gradually rising.

wind10mmph_20250120_12_084.thumb.jpg.d075bf7f9f73c69e4941094a31509f68.jpg

wind10mmph_20250120_12_096.thumb.jpg.e43c841716c2fd161b66e7aeb00240f3.jpg

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gustmph_20250120_12_096.thumb.jpg.77f63dcef4a268ba4a0e3aab7932ef03.jpg

12_90_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.webp.10b8f66d7c5e00156a5e57df8bd40d8f.webp

12_95_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.webp.18de0b20556ef9f9730c14a9b8345b46.webp

Edited by Jordan S
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

173739506109624551933399616334.thumb.png.91f0dc61fbe96900b09f9cff7ae0dc05.png17373950870056782936198645596290.thumb.png.547497c7f30bf54dbd4211868b4e45fd.png

UKMO 12z wind gusts, over 200kph/125mph out at sea.

17373951794552211148455059507441.thumb.png.94712a92a95d0bf88bda77d7e6df297d.png17373952285492861039244676747017.thumb.png.f43fba44c8d9e0fe54cc89ead1d7d988.png

Pressure bottoms out at 935mb on Friday morning before very slowly weakening as it moves North East.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Nov - Feb. Thunderstorms, 20-29°C and sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
Posted

Looks like the centre is currently modelled to pass over or north of Scotland / Northern Ireland, possibly a sub 940mb low which is pretty serious.

GFSOPUK12_99_1.thumb.png.80230c1fbad935cc673e5c4b6f81f113.pngGEMOPUK12_102_1.thumb.png.1860f4490d7432b0707fe150ef88d721.pnggustmph_20250120_12_099.thumb.jpg.227c5c9a311a5591392e7b125006bfce.jpg

At the moment i'd go for a countrywide yellow warning, then an amber quite likely for anywhere in Scotland, northern England and northern Ireland, and in some counties across the ROI. I wouldn't be too surprised if a red wind warning is issued if the output continues to churn this out which would give better confidence to issue that red warning for areas at highest risk of an amber.

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

17373960607286852645267867216236.thumb.jpg.4c367e168821578fbec74e62a9bbd59d.jpg

ECM tracks the low further South than UKMO, with the centre right by the coast of Ireland on Friday morning at around 942mb.

17373961007877093510902515362206.thumb.jpg.111cffda45e7f394b782acd1cb4fea72.jpg

Centre then crosses right through Scotland albeit slightly weaker at this point at 953mb.

I wouldn't go against the ECM at Day 4 so this is looking potentially quite serious now.

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Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

Wow almost a direct hit for Ireland!! As you say who would bet against ECM at 4 days out!

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

 January Snowstorm 17373969594911890461543119273322.thumb.jpg.c4a38d04432d28db173f08903399f10f.jpg

In comes round 2 on Sunday night on the ECM as well, 957mb this time.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
Posted

I'm getting worried now. Not liking the look of the conditions through the wind tunnel that is the M8 corridor.

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