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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
Posted
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Northern travel plans for Friday, keep an eye on the forecast. A significant Atlantic low pressure looks set to bring impactful weather with severe gales, rain and hill snow.

 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
Posted (edited)

 Jo Farrow I was just thinking that the warnings will need to be upgraded if what the models are predicting comes off. The wind strength across the Western Isles is, as you said, terrifying. Have you any idea what our record low is for central pressure in a winter storm?

Edited by Fiona Robertson
Space bar still borked.
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland
Posted

 Fiona Robertson 914mb - the storm which broke up the Braer Tanker (that was already grounded after a previous storm) in January 1993.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
Posted

 skifreak I remember that! In fact a few years later I was analysing samples from fish to look for lingering effects of the oil spill. Thank you for your quick answer, it's provoked some memories.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted (edited)

I really don't like the look of the latest charts. Very concerning for most of the north. Could be looking at 65-75mph widely inland and 80plus exposure. A lot of damage. Really hoping we get a reprieve in the next few days.

My highest gust was storm arwen and that was 66mph and that was scary enough, I can't imagine 10mph higher than that.

Edited by Nick123
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

UKV 15z max gusts.

20250120_192318.jpg

20250120_192320.jpg

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 Mcconnor8 would you say this is more likely to verify than the ECM predictions? They ECM is slightly worse for my area i think. Although that is still concerning for the Central belt.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

 Nick123 I would probably favour the ECM over the UKV at this point, ECM is further East with the storm which is why it is worse for your area. UKV/UKMO model isn't showing very good consistency run to run at the moment but a further North West track like it has is still possible.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 Mcconnor8 damn I was hoping you wouldn't say that lol, thanks though 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 BurntFishTrousers SUSTAINED winds of 75mph, not even gusts. That's crazy. I dont think this one is modelled to be that strong?! 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Quite an unusual ECM ensemble spread for T96 hrs . Not sure I’ve seen one like this before with two separate clusters within one area of general spread .

Suggests two clusters one with the low  nw of Ireland and one with the low over northern England .

image.thumb.png.a0b50ef5609f8f41058cadc2c4312fb4.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

The ECM shows quite a serious situation. 70/80mph inland is getting towards top end stuff for a UK storm.

North of 100mph in coastal locations.

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 Cheshire Freeze I really hope it has reached its peak and downgrades from here. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell
Posted

 Cheshire Freeze Isha last Jan was 70-80mph inland. Stronger than the average storm, maybe a 1 in 5 to 10 year event but unlikely to cause widespread damage.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Still waiting for the latest ECM high res. However we miss the worst of on the GFS with everything going to the north of us or just to the south.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Leitrim (ROI) and London
  • Location: Leitrim (ROI) and London
Posted

 Mcconnor8 I'm bang underneath the 85mph gusts there. I don't usually get concerned about weather in the UK but this looks very nasty. Would quite like it to deviate west please.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 The PIT do you mean missing the UK as a whole or just your location?

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Nick123 Will be his location, this is what the GFS 12z had, 18z will be out in an hour.

17374072327492327866760510341418.thumb.gif.fd7906ecd6abdf4466b63ad36e9efcf3.gif

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)

The storm on the ECMWF is in it's weakening phase, that takes the sting out of the storm overall, ofcourse doesn't stop it being problematic and disruptive with widespread inland gusts of 55-70mph , more around coasts, localised inland locations, initial landfall would produce slightly stronger winds inland for Ireland where it first impacts, reaches peak intensity offshore to the southwest of Ireland.

UKv/UKMO more severe with the storm with much stronger winds, but further northwest.

Latest Icon..

Further west/northwest with the strongest winds..

Stormy for Ireland/northern Ireland and Scotland.

icon-0-84.thumb.png.6a54d462bb2b294380a35f42623ca59e.png

icon-14-87.thumb.png.1af7ceaa6c4da64362f482fcc18cade9.png

icon-0-87.thumb.png.92024074d174a4df829552ed00c46cdb.png

icon-0-96.thumb.png.451711e15fc0c7218aa589d6c7b79071.png

icon-14-96.thumb.png.1e7b2705b87946b57c9d2a445797bb8f.png

Here's the mean wind speed from the Icon on the storm in knots..

sfcwind_mslp.uk(8).thumb.png.bc6dd1d1cd1ea8cae8a393f150a18b01.png

sfcwind_mslp.uk(9).thumb.png.98b8d60ae82290bcd82488494d9f8bcb.png

sfcwind_mslp.uk(10).thumb.png.e38f17af6a90e33a261d9f3739aad73a.png

sfcwind_mslp.uk(11).thumb.png.384a6005c47d920e76286ff574ab3cdf.png

Edited by Jordan S
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

 Nick123 My location. 45 to 55 max here at the moment.

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 The PIT I'll gladly swap with you lol

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 Jordan S even that icon run being further west looks like being very bad here, at 19.00, scary 

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