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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted (edited)

The fact that UKM/UKV/ICON are in agreement the strongest winds will be in NW gives me a little bit of comfort (sorry for you guys, please be safe!) 

GFS/ECM are a worry...

Edited by Nick123
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S
  • Weather Preferences: Any extreme weather conditions
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S
Posted

 Nick123 is that NW as in Scotland or NW England Blackpool Liverpool etc

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

17374103289117254017944453063073.thumb.png.a2c04d8a967d745db1b3401ce658af85.png17374103506602711780344534085122.thumb.png.51de7c7d52a5b6bb3a016f7a9e03535f.png

GFS 18z moves further East than the 12z as well as being slightly weaker which you would expect with that track but still very deep, close to ECM

Edited by Mcconnor8
Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted (edited)

 Mcconnor8 yes, a noticeable weakening compared to 12z GFS, 12 z 938 at midday 

image.thumb.png.35bdeb79fd54f8d48f549fda98b01da3.png

12 z

image.thumb.png.1da01368cd2ce6989e34c5aabb7f8028.png
 

will be several runs before we know for sure, so complex how these insignificant waves turn into depressions on the jet.

Edited by Downburst
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Downburst GFS 18z is a close match to ECM 12z both in track and intensity, hopefully we're coming to rough agreement now.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

GFS slightly further S on its 12z run.

Coastal parts of N Lancashire/Cumbria showing 90mph gusts.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

 Downburst Any weakening is negligible really. 90mph peak gusts as the low moves across, which probably equates to 95-100mph as GFS can underestimate.

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)

 Nick123

Wind gusts from the Icon..

gustmph_20250120_18_093.thumb.jpg.cbeb08eebed5cf1a30524f43e4a2fb5d.jpg

gustmph_20250120_18_093(1).thumb.jpg.239e38bd094dd2c69b17ee63a46f5caf.jpg

Yes you could see very strong winds from this, though not generally as bad as further west/northwest if Icon is correct.

Surprisingly the GFS strengthens the storm later, stronger winds are further south/east.

And is further east in track like @Mcconnor8 has just pointed out.

Especially once it gets to Scotland.

12z

gustmph_20250120_12_096(1).thumb.jpg.51ab5cbd256d8e7746ff799c65c868cd.jpg

18z

gustmph_20250120_18_090.thumb.jpg.7667bd68e4db03f4eaa0aab52f5dc102.jpg

12z

gustmph_20250120_12_099.thumb.jpg.eefc25b731e49909ba548c74a8b14d91.jpg

18z

gustmph_20250120_18_093(2).thumb.jpg.a96e2e93a058fdce287a75a581be9268.jpg

Edited by Jordan S
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 Mcconnor8 has it downgraded any for my location? Fingers crossed lol

Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

 Nick123 17374111492634785150688777063056.thumb.gif.6e687232dd05b2218f372875c7ad2e0c.gif

18z probably worse for you on the East coast unfortunately, Isle of Man could be in for an absolute battering

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 Mcconnor8 😪 that looks horrendous! 

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

 Mcconnor8 looks about right, will maybe move a tad even further S before the weekend. For my money, coastal parts of Lancashire and Cumbria will see a red warning issued later this week but we’ll see.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 Jordan S strengthens the storm later on... almost sounds like sting jet territory lol.. oh God.. 

Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Helensburgh, Scotland
Posted

 Mcconnor8 I know you say weaker but the peak gusts look marginally higher?

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)

 Nick123

It's one to watch closely for sure. 👍 

 CameronWS

He's talking about central pressure of the storm, which doesn't always correlate hand in hand with strength of the wind. 🙂

Edited by Jordan S
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

 CameronWS It's weaker in terms of pressure, peaks at around 942mb compared to 932mb of the 12z, but the track being further East brings higher winds to many areas.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 Mcconnor8 I'm guessing with the wind direction as well Lee gusts might play a part as well! Could really be a dangerous one this

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

You can see at the start of this youtube where the forcing is coming from.

 

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

 Nick123 Sting jet? Let’s hope not as the upper level wind streak over us is around 180mph at the time

image.thumb.png.ba8d7c15bb4d23874f34255dba1c2ec7.png

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

17374120086904860328352373007418.thumb.png.e745142d8de32fde161ae0d560c2ca01.png

Arpege 18z moves East as well from the 12z, very deep still as well.

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
Posted

Explain 

The METO Office gives us a pretty windy forecast. Screenshot_20250120-213112.thumb.png.bfe96784d7bf126434b87ce4b00b5ab2.png

GFS sticks it's naughty tongue out and says sods you all. Screenshot_20250120-213044.thumb.png.1371a958b1887a52fe6fc1f6366f47ab.png

 

Explain 

The METO Office gives us a pretty windy forecast. Screenshot_20250120-213112.thumb.png.bfe96784d7bf126434b87ce4b00b5ab2.png

GFS sticks it's naughty tongue out and says sods you all. Screenshot_20250120-213044.thumb.png.1371a958b1887a52fe6fc1f6366f47ab.png

 

Explain 

The METO Office gives us a pretty windy forecast. Screenshot_20250120-213112.thumb.png.bfe96784d7bf126434b87ce4b00b5ab2.png

GFS sticks it's naughty tongue out and says sods you all. Screenshot_20250120-213044.thumb.png.1371a958b1887a52fe6fc1f6366f47ab.png

 

Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Ladyofthestorm UKMO model seems to be playing catchup regarding the track, it has had it much further West the last few days which is reflected in their online forecasts.

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

 Mcconnor8 yes was about to say this.

The warning will probably be altered tomorrow. I expect all of N England will be covered by a general yellow warning.

Edited by Cheshire Freeze
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

Where even is the isle of Lewis? 🤣🤣

Excuse my ignorance 

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