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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

CET averages and extremes for February

 

The following data include all CET values from 1981-2024. Warmest 15 in bold type. Middle 14 values italic and coldest 15 are underlined. 

The data have been converted to v2.1.0 in each case. The ties mentioned are only ties in one decimal, and the actual ranks in the CET v2.1.0 table are based on second decimal values. After the group at 6.3 C (incl 2014), only 1981-2024 values are listed without ranks,  as well as most recent examples if no 1981-2024 CET exists at given level, so earlier years could be tied, until colder than 1.2  C when the longer term records are once again mentioned for coldest values. Only 1986 was colder in the recent past. 

 

12.8 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

 7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779

 7.8 ... second warmest month of Feb 2024

 7.5 ... third warmest month of Feb 1869

 7.3 ... tied fourth warmest months of Feb 1990, 1998

 7.2 ... sixth warmest month of Feb 1794

 7.1 ... tied seventh warmest month of Feb 1903, 1945

 7.0 ... tied ninth warmest 2002, 2019, 2022

 6.9 ... tied twelfth warmest 1867, 1872, 1961

 6.8 ... tied 15th warmest 1739, 1914, 1926

 6.7 ... tied 18th warmest 1702, 1750, 1997

 6.6 ... tied 21st warmest 1790, 2011

 6.5 ... tied 23rd warmest 1815, 1918, 1995, 2020, 2023

 6.4 ... tied 28th warmest 1732, 1734, 1817, 1826, 1846, 1850, 2014

 6.3 ... tied 35th warmest 1822, 1868, 2000, 2017

 6.2 ... 39th warmest 1877 

 6.1 ... most recent 1943

 6.0 ... 2007

 5.9 ... 1989

 5.8 ... most recent 1935

 5.7 ... most recent 1980

 5.6 ... 2008

 5.5 ... 2004

 5.4 ... 1992 ... warmest 30-year average 1995-2024

 5.3 ... 1999, 2021 ... also average 2001-2024

 5.2 ... most recent 1977 

 5.1 ... 2016 

 5.0 ... most recent 1789 ... 1991-2020 average

 4.9 ... 1988  

 4.8 ... 1982

 4.7 ... 1993

 4.6 ... most recent 1896

 4.5 ... most recent 1976

 4.4 ... 2001, 2005 ... 1981-2010 average

 4.3 ... 2009 ... and 1971-2000 average 

 4.2 ... 2015 

 4.1 ... most recent 1960 ... 1901-2000 average 

 4.0 ... 2012  ... and mean for 1801-1900

 3.9 ... 20032006 and mean for 1659-2024 (all 365 years) -- 3.94  

 3.8 ... most recent 1934 ... 1961-1990 average and mean for 1701-1800  

 3.7 ... most recent 1951

 3.6 ... 1987

 3.5 ... most recent 1941 

 3.4 ... 1984, 2013

 3.3 ... most recent 1924

 3.2 ... 1994

 3.1 ... 2018

 3.0 ... 2010

 2.9 ... 1981 ... and mean for 1659-1700

 2.8 ... most recent 1907 ... 2.7 most recent 1978, 2.6 most recent 1954

 2.5 ... 1996 and coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699)  

 2.4 ... most recent 1847, 2.3 most recent 1901

 2.2 ... 1985

 2.1 ... most recent 1821, 2.0 most recent 1721, 1.9 most recent 1968, 1.8 most recent 1888

 1.7 ... 1983

 1.6 ... t42nd coldest 1991

 1.5 ... most recent 1902 ... 1.4 most recent 1814

 1.3 ... in v2.1.0, the "missing CET" closest to the median of all months (would be 31st coldest if it happens before anything colder)

 1.2 ... 1755, 1955, 1979 t28 coldest

 1.1 ... also no CET (see note 1.3)

 1.0 ... 1663, 1665, 1670, 1691, 1969 t23rd coldest

 0.9 ... 1845, 1917 t21st coldest

 0.8 ... 1795 (20th coldest)

 0.7 ... 1827 (19th coldest)

 0.6 ... 1853 (18th coldest)

 0.5 ... 1695, 1697, 1698 (t15th coldest)

 0.4 ... 1765, 1785, 1838, 1929 (t11th coldest)

 0.1 ... 1942 (tenth coldest)

 0.0 ... 1692 (ninth coldest)

-0.2 ... 1956 (eighth coldest)

-0.7 ... 1963 (seventh coldest)

-1.0 ... tied fifth coldest month of Feb, 1684 and coldest in recent years 1986

-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740

-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855

-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895

-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.9 ... running CET by 23rd 1855 (!!)

-4.4 ... running CET by 14th 1895 (!!) (was -3.0 tied with 1855 to 22nd)

-6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

(1947 was like Dec 1890 only the coldest running CET on last day of month; the coldest January 1795 somewhat similar as 1814 colder 10th-24th and again 27th-28th, tied 29th, but 1795 did hold top spot 4th-9th, 25th-26th and 30th-31st). 

Before 1895 (8th-21st) and 1855 (tied 22nd, coldest 23rd-27th), 1956 (1st-4th) and 1830 (5th-7th) held the lead in coldest running Feb CET. The coldest leap year February with daily data was 1956 but 1740 was considerably colder. 

(before 2024) ... For warmest running Feb CET, it was 1923 (1st-2nd), 2004 (3rd-8th), 1869 from 9th to 22nd, then 1779 led on 24th, was tied with 1869 on 23rd and 25th and took over again 26th-28th. As neither were leap years, 1872 had the highest running mean for 1st-29th (6.9 C) but would have been easily beaten out if 1st March of 1869 or 1779 were the 29th of Feb.

(after 2024) 2024 now warmest leap year at 7.8, 1779 went to 8.0 counting 1st of March. 2024 also took over several of the highest running means, will clarify when posting CET values around 2nd of month. 

Interesting fact: longest interval with no subzero February is not recent, it was the 114 consecutive years 1741 to 1854. The current streak is 37 years (1987 to 2023). But other longer streaks include 1685 to 1739 (55 years, but 1692 was 0.0, so 47 years if you count 1693 to 1739), 1856 to 1894 (39 years), and 1896 to 1946 (51 years). The shortest return of a subzero February was 1963 relative to 1956, and closely followed by 1956 relative to 1947. The longest absence of a 2.0 or colder February is recent, 1994 to 2023 (30 years). Before that, the longest absence of a 2.0 or colder February was 18 years (1796 to 1813) ... however 2.0 was the lowest value between 1699 and 1739, so the longest streak of Februaries failing to go below 2.0 is that interval of 41 years. It will be intact until at least 2034. 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Friday 31st January,

or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Saturday 3rd February. Good luck!

______________________________________________________________________________________

 

EWP Precip contest

 

Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above --

 

Wettest Feb ... ... ... 169.5 mm (2020)

former record was ... ... 158.6 mm (1833)

... 3rd wettest 1923 (152.7) and 4th is 2024 (151.8)

former recent max was 143.2 mm (1990)

1995-2024 avg ... 77.2 mm (now highest running 30-yr avg) 

____ 1922-1951 avg ... 71.9 mm (was a secondary max)

1991-2020 avg ... 72.4 mm

1981-2010 avg ... 66.5 mm

all data 1766-2024 avg 65.8 mm 

1777-1806 avg ... 54.3 mm (lowest running 30-yr avg)

___ ___ 1959-1988 avg 60.6 mm (secondary min)

__ recent min ... 13.8 mm (1993) _ 2023 was 16.5 mm

Driest Feb ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 mm (1891)

____________________________________________________________

2024 _151.8 mm .. .. 2023 _16.5 mm ... ... 2022 _104.4 mm ... ... 2021 _ 78.9 mm ... ... 2020 _169.5 mm ... ... 2019 _ 54.2 mm

2018 _ 52.8 mm ... ... 2017 _ 72.0 mm ... ...  2016 _ 80.0 mm ... ... 2015 _ 59.3 mm ... ... 2014 _136.7 mm

2013 _ 48.3 mm ... ... 2012 _ 32.1 mm ... ... 2011 _ 81.2 mm ... ... 2010 _ 87.2 mm ... ... 2009 _ 60.9 mm

2008 _ 40.2 mm ... ... 2007 _111.6 mm ... ... 2006 _ 57.7 mm ... ... 2005 _ 46.2 mm ... ... 2004 _ 50.2 mm

2003 _ 38.8 mm ... ... 2002 _ 115.1 mm ... ... 2001 _ 105.3 mm ... ... 2000 _ 95.1 mm ... ... 1999 _ 50.0 mm

======================================================================

Combine your predictions and edit up to deadline as you wish.

__ Good luck !! __

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
Posted

Hi 6.3C and 111mm for me please.

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted

7.1C and 141.9mm.

The mean of the 2020, 2022 and 2024 values.

A bit cynical perhaps but it does seem that once the Atlantic gets back at the end of Jan, it never relinquishes until March.

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

6.6C and 66mm please, Roger.

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
Posted

7.0 please and 110mm

Posted
  • Location: Twickenham, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Twickenham, London
Posted

4.9c and 65mm

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Exceptional how since 2017, every February bar 2018/21 has yielded a CET above 6C.. with 2019, 2022 and 2024 at or above 7C.. such an exceptional stat and makes the run of mild February's in 1867-72 look tame in comparison. February is quickly turning into a spring month.. surely this month breaks the cycle. 

Posted
  • Location: Stevenage - Herts (110m ASL)
  • Location: Stevenage - Herts (110m ASL)
Posted

5.4c and 92mm please.

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

6.8c & 92mm 👍

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

 Frigid Arguably too wet for a spring month though, given the high frequency of 100mm+ in recent years... more like a return to autumn on steroids. Certainly February 2020 felt like a particularly bad November and February 2024 felt like a particularly bad October.

 

 

Edited by Summer8906
Posted

4.9 just a bit warmer then average a very mild first 10 days but then cold to average after that rainfall no prediction but overall a decent winter by today’s standards.

Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

As usual, here is the chart for February since the start of daily records in 1772. As a reminder, the cyan line is a 10-year trailing average (e.g. 2000 = average of 1991-2000) and the dark blue line is the 30-year trailing average.

As others have said, the February trend is pretty stark. Both 10-year and 30-year averages ending in 2024 were the highest recorded.

image.thumb.png.532c9867b3854c7d835ff0ecfab5dc2e.png

There are two statistics that stand out quite a lot. The first is that the 30-year average almost always stayed within a range of 3.5C to 4.5C for most of the last two and a half centuries, and is now well outside that range at 5.4C.

The second is when you compare recent data to older averages. With last year added in, the 10-year average has reached a new high of 5.9C for 2015-2024, and the 30-year average has reached 5.4C for 1995-2024. We can now say that a modern February is comparable to a 1961-1990 March, which averaged 5.6C.

I did some other analysis last year which I managed to retrieve and update, and the rate of warming for February over the past 30 years stands at roughly 0.5C per decade. I'm not sure whether it is just a statistical quirk or whether there is a good reason why, but February does appear to be up there amongst the fastest warming months, with March and December the other two contenders.

My own guess will wait a while longer, but recent history would be very much against anyone going for a colder option for this one. There is an exception to every rule though!

  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

Not done this before, submitting a CET guess this early, but with teleconnections pointing towards a mild month, I will go for 6.7C and 95mm, please.  A mild stormy start, possibly settling down somewhat but remaining mild and then perhaps an increased chance of colder snaps towards the end of the month.

I will review at the end of January and make changes if necessary.

 

Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
Posted

6.9°C and 132.5mm for me please. 

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted

4.1C and 108 mm please

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

Will go for 6*C and 70mm precipitation, thanks. Doubtful of a dry month, but I hope it doesn’t turn out super wet either and that is has some reasonable sunny spells. 

Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green
Posted

6.1c please

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted

Withdrawing my original extreme mild and extreme wet forecast, made more out of frustration (with the models as they stood a few days ago) more than anything else!

No new forecast yet, but initial thoughts would be somewhat mild with average precipitation.

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted

Looks like February could be a month of early Daffodils yet again. Will need to wait until the 31st Jan to be sure though!

Posted
  • Location: Wednesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather (i.e nothing that deviates too much from the norm)
  • Location: Wednesbury
Posted (edited)

Am I still ok to enter please? Not to worry if I am not. My guess is 4.0c. I think rather cold weather early on in the month (especially by night) under mainly anticylonic conditions. Perhaps the odd day with temperatures only managing to reach between 1 and 3 degrees even in the CET zone if we get a temperature inversion. Mild (perhaps exceptionally so at times) and Atlantic driven in the second half of the month, but the odd chillier day where the wind veers more west to north westerly. Overall not much diurnal range in second half though. I just have a feeling this is going to be a bit more interesting than recent Februaries and that there will be some wintry potential. 

Edited by Festivefreeze
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

 Coldie24 I actually saw some daffodils in bloom on the 30th November, never seen anything like it!!

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