February 2025 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 3.5C

And there we have it bang on the 1961 - 1990 average.

-1.1C below the 1991 - 2020 average.

Rainfall up to 22.9mm.

22.9% of the 1961 - 1990 and 1991 - 2020 average.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP projections (GFS grid average 42) now closer to 60 (18.8 to 16 Feb, added very little on 17 Feb). CET latest projection on GFS 5.2 C, after 5.4 by 25 Feb. 

[WYorksWeather]

 Roger J Smith Yep, low 5s makes intuitive sense I feel. Modelling now picking up on some sort of brief north-westerly toppler before month's end. Obviously timing makes a big difference - if that gets pushed back to March the CET will finish higher, but if it happens on schedule low 5s seems to be roughly the right idea.

 

[LetItSnow]

Low 5s... Once upon a time that would be considered a solidly mild February. 5.2C would now be a smidge below the 2001-2024 average I think.

[WYorksWeather]

 LetItSnow Roger posted it on the first page - 2001-2024 average is 5.3C.

[damianslaw]

 WYorksWeather Reason why some people may think this Feb feels colder than normal, because compared to recent years it has been up to this point, and I doubt a few mild days  ahead will change general perceptions. We could end below that mean, anyone under 35 has no perspective of 61-90 means, I'm increasingly of the persuasion we should ditch the 61-90 mean. 

Edited February 17 by damianslaw

[WYorksWeather]

 damianslaw I think this discussion has been had on a few occasions before in these threads, but I'd go with having both. 1961-1990 for historical context, the latest 30-year average for a recent norm (maybe even recent 20-year average given how fast things are changing).

That way we can easily express the idea that a year is colder than of late but still milder than a typical February 50 years ago.

I believe the reason 1961-1990 is used is that the CET paper the Met Office use was written in the early 90s, so it was the latest available average at the time, and they never updated it. Most other Met Office products like the UK averages and the anomaly maps offer both options.

 

[Cloud2]

 WYorksWeather Average for 2001-2024 comes to 5.1C, not 5.3C.

[damianslaw]

 WYorksWeather Yes agree good to benchmark against the historic 61-90 means, but given the warming trend of the last 30 years, the 91-20 mean is a better barometer of how we are doing in terms of current context.

Jan 2025 was quite a feat in this regard, especially given we never experienced any particularly notably cold synoptics. 

[WYorksWeather]

 Cloud2 I was going by Roger's numbers on the first page. I just checked and did my own calcs and I also get 5.3C, where do you get 5.1C? This is for 2001-2024. If you were meaning 1991-2020 I get 5.0C for that.

 

[Roger J Smith]

 Cloud2 

Average in v2.1.0 is 5.30. (127.2/24). 

 

[Don]

 damianslaw Yes, assuming this February finishes with a CET of 5.2C, the overall winter period will come out at 5.1C, exactly 1C higher than the 61-90 average and would have been considered a mild winter back then.

Edited February 17 by Don

[damianslaw]

 Don Good to know what the mean temp of the last 20 or so winters has been.

[Summer Sun]

3.9 to the 17th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c below the 91 to 20 average

[Summer8906]

It's telling that despite it being mostly cold until now, some people are still reporting an above 61-90 average month.

My perception (no figures) is that it would so far be a very average February for the 80s, but that was a decade which had a lot of cold examples. We had 1980 and 1989 which were very mild, 1982 and 1988 which were a fraction above, and the rest were varying degrees of cold.

Another example this year reminds me of is 2003, in the sense that it was dry and somewhat cold until around the 21st (with a milder first week) and then much milder (and dull and wet) for the final week. Not unlike this month, but the mild and wet beginning around three days later. Yet its mean was just 3.9C - clearly it looks like this month will be significantly milder than 2003.

2003 was much sunnier so I'm wondering if much colder nights was the key factor in this month ending up a likely 1.5C above 2003?

Edited February 18 by Summer8906

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 3.5C

Bang on the 1961 - 1990 average

-1.1C below the 1991 -  2020 average

Rainfall unchanged.

[Snowyowl9]

 damianslaw

3.8c still on before the rise as 3.9c now reached..

 

[Cloud2]

 WYorksWeather The average for February between 2001-2024 comes to 5.145C, which I suppose if you used the 2 digit figure of 5.15C could round up to 5.2C, so depending on how you round the figure it could either be 5.1C or 5.2C.

[WYorksWeather]

 Cloud2 Which version of the CET are you using? It gets updated fairly frequently. In the latest version it does come to 5.3C as posted by Roger above for 2001-2024.

[Cloud2]

 WYorksWeather I'm using the February figures as they were recorded at the time

[damianslaw]

 Summer8906 Lack of clear skies has prevented more substantive lower means so far this month, maxima has been supressed, minima closer to average. 

We may drop to 3.8 tomorrow. The period 1 Jan to 19 Feb mean will be below the 61-90 mean, about 7 weeks of quite cold weather with minimal mild weather in the CET zone, not bad going.

Edited February 18 by damianslaw

[Metwatch]

Just a little different to around this time last year!

[saintkip]

I reckon the max average temp is quite low whilst the min average is probably just above, not had many cold nights but loads of chilly days

[Snowyowl9]

 Coldie24 

Proper cold as in severe frosts at night and temps below 0c by day as in ice days yes we ve had those this decade..

February 2021 as cold as the mini beast from the east, and December 2022...to name 2 snow amounts not much..

We are getting much more in the way of high pressure blocking patterns in winter more this decade so far something I m noticing..Greenland highs another one to add to the list ok the orientation can come unfortunate for the UK..And it needs backup by the Scandi high..

But thats for another thread..

[WYorksWeather]

 Cloud2 OK, that explains the difference.