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February 2025 C.E.T. and EWP contests

Roger J Smith
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davehsug Veteran

davehsug

Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
Posted

4.5C & 68mm please.

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reef
reef

Hadley is confirmed as 5.3C, so 0.3C above the 1991-2020 average. Winter as a whole was 5.18C, which is 0.32C above the 1991-2020 average. A close to average month and winter. The first two

J10
J10

ExcelFeb 2025 CET.xlsx PDF (Summary) Feb 2025 Summary.pdf PDF (Summary Overall) Feb 2025 Overall Summary.pdf Monthly Confirming Roger's figures. Just the 1 player got 5.3c spot on, Cloud

Roger J Smith
Roger J Smith

CET extremes for February (1772-2024) and 1991-2020 means ____________________________________________________________ This section is fully converted from CET 2.0 to CET v2.1 and in keepi

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Frigid Accomplished

Frigid

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

 Don We'll win this together Don! Though, I wouldn't mind if it came a few degrees lower 😁

Interestingly, we've not seen a 4C CET in Feb since 2015. Quite astonishing given the averages are around 4-5C. 

  • Like 1
Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
18 minutes ago, Frigid said:

We'll win this together Don! Though, I wouldn't mind if it came a few degrees lower 😁

Same here! 🍻

emmett garland Community Regular

emmett garland

Posted
  • Location: howth,east dublin city
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: howth,east dublin city
Posted

2.9 degrees and 68mm please Roger

Kentish Man Contributor

Kentish Man

Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
Posted

2.6C please

Norrance Maestro

Norrance

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted

4.4c and 64 mms please.

rwtwm Enthusiast

rwtwm

Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London
Posted

Perhaps hedging my bets a little here, but I'm gonna go 3.8C please with 45mm.

Thanks

Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

Going 5.0 and 55.5 

... working on table of forecasts, will give one hr "grace period" and post table at 0100h.

 

  • Like 3
Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted (edited)

 

Table of forecasts for February 2025

 

CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (order of entry) ________ EWP forecasts in order

 

8.0 _ 34.0 __ Shillitocet (17) _________________________132.5__ Polar Gael ( 9 )

8.0 _ 60.0 __ Earthshine (41) ________________________121.0 __SteveB (26)

7.4 _ 50.0 __ syed2878 (31) _________________________ 114.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 8 )

7.0 _110.0__ Stretford End ( 3 ) _____________________ 111.0__ bobd29 ( 1 )

6.9 _132.5__ Polar Gael ( 9 ) _________________________110.0__ Stretford End ( 3 )

6.8 _ 92.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 6 ) __________________108.0 __ JeffC (10 )

6.8 _114.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 8 ) ___________96.0 __ Weather26 (14)

6.6 _ 66.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) ________________________94.0 __ Pete Moffat (38 )

6.6 _121.0__ SteveB (26) _____________________________92.0 __ chilly milly ( 5 )

6.5 _ 80.0 __ LucyStorms06 (32) _____________________ 92.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 6 )

6.4 _ 96.0 __ Weather26 (14) ________________________ 92.0 __ summer18 (13)

6.4 _ 78.0 __ ciderwithrosie (23) _____________________90.0 __ Shunter (L1-2)

6.3 _111.0__ bobd29 ( 1 ) ____________________________ 89.0 __ Cloud2 (56)

6.2 _ 57.0 __ catbrainz (18 ) __________________________88.0 __ stewfox (33)

6.2 _ 75.0 __ summer8906 (19)______________________ 81.0 __ Feb1991blizzard (46)

6.1 _ --- --- __Typhoon John (12) ______________________80.0 __ LucyStorms06 (32)

6.1 _ 60.0 __ WYorksWeather (22) ___________________ 78.0 __ ciderwithrosie (23)

6.0 _ 70.0 __ Bluehedgehog074 (11) _________________ 77.0 __ Ricardo23 (29)

6.0 _ 70.0 __ Leo97t (20) _____________________________ 76.0 __ DR(S)NO (L1-4)

5.9 _ 70.0 __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (37) ________________ 75.0 __ summer8906 (19 )

5.8 _ --- --- __Weather Observer (35) _________________ 74.0 __ snowray (28 ) 

5.5 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (33) ____________________________ 74.0 __ Stationary Front (53) 

5.5 _ 70.0 __ weatherforducks (34) ___________________72.0 __ summer blizzard (36)

5.4 _ 92.0 __ chilly milly ( 5 ) __________________________70.0 __ Bluehedgehog074 (11) 

5.4 _ 50.0 __ johncam (44) ___________________________ 70.0 __ Leo97t (20)

5.3 _ 89.0 __ Cloud2 (56) _____________________________70.0 __ weatherforducks (34)

5.2 _ 77.0 __ Ricardo23 (29) __________________________70.0 __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (37)  

5.2 _ 72.0 __ summer blizzard (36) ___________________70.0 __ J10 (60)

5.2 _ 54.5 __ Metwatch (50) __________________________ 69.0 __ Shaunado (L1-3)

5.1 _ 56.0 __ Reef (25) ________________________________ 68.0 __ davehsug (58 )

5.0 _ 55.5 __ Roger J Smith (66) _______________________68.0 __ emmett garland (61)

4.9 _ 66.0 __ Consensus ________________________________67.0 __ Consensus

4.9 _ 65.0 __ B87 ( 4 ) _________________________________67.0 __ jonboy (27a)

4.9 _ --- ---__ JackMonday06 ( 7 ) _____________________ 66.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 )

4.9 _ 67.0 __ jonboy (30, 26a) ________________________66.0 __ Mr Maunder (45) 

4.9 _ 94.0 __ Pete Moffat (38 ) _______________________ 65.0 __ B87 ( 4 ) 

4.9 _ 90.0 __ Shunter (L1-2) __________________________65.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (48 )

4.8 _ 48.0 __ seaside60 (39) __________________________65.0 __ Don (57)

4.8 _ 66.0 __ Mr Maunder (45) _______________________ 64.0 __ Norrance (63)

4.8 _ --- --- __Mark Bayley (59) _______________________ 62.0 __ February1978 (65)

4.8 _ 70.0 __ J10 (60) _________________________________60.0 __ WYorksWeather (22)

4.8 _ 76.0 __ DR(S)NO (L1-4) _________________________ 60.0 __ Frigid (40)

4.7 _ 92.0 __ summer18 (13) _________________________60.0 __ Earthshine (41)

4.7 _ --- --- __Derecho (42) ___________________________ 

4.7 _ 35.0 __ Let It Snow (L1-1) ______________________

4.6 _ 48.0 __ virtualsphere (15) ______________________ 58.7 __ Terminal moraine (54)

4.6 _ 74.0 __ snowray (28 ) ___________________________57.0 __ catbrainz (18 )

4.5 _ 81.0 __ Feb1991blizzard (46) ___________________ 56.0 __ Reef (25)

4.5 _ 68.0 __ davehsug (58 ) __________________________55.5 __ Roger J Smith (66) 

4.4 _ 60.0 __ Frigid (40) _______________________________ 55.0 __ Coldie24 (52)

4.4 _ --- --- __damianslaw (47) ________________________ 54.5 __ Metwatch (50)

4.4 _ 65.0 __ Don (57) ________________________________ 50.0 __  The PIT (21)

4.4 _ 64.0 __ Norrance (63) ___________________________50.0 __ john88b (24)

4.3 _ 62.0 __ February1978 (65) ______________________ 50.0 __ syed2878 (31)

4.2 _ 65.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (48 ) __________________ 50.0 __ johncam (44)

4.1 _108.0__ JeffC (10) _______________________________ 48.0 __ virtualsphere (15)

4.1 _ 44.0 __ Cymro (27) _____________________________ 48.0 __ seaside60 (39)

4.1 _ 55.0 __ Coldie24 (52) ___________________________

4.0 _ --- --- __Festivefreeze (16) ______________________

4.0 _ 50.0 __ The PIT (21) _____________________________

4.0 _ 45.0 __ Neil N (43) ______________________________

4.0 _ 74.0 __ Stationary Front (53) ___________________ 

4.0 _ 45.0 __ mulzy (55) ______________________________  

3.9 _ 50.0 __ john88b (24) ____________________________ 45.0 __ Neil N (43)

3.9 _ 58.7 __ Terminal moraine (54) __________________45.0 __ Daniel* (51) 

3.8 _ 45.0 __ rwtwm (64) _____________________________ 45.0 __ mulzy (55)

3.8 _ 69.0 __ Shaunado (L1-3) ________________________ 45.0 __ rwtwm (64)

3.7 _ 45.0 __ Daniel* (51) _____________________________ 44.0 __ Cymro (27)

2.9 _ 68.0 __ emmett garland (61) ____________________ 40.0 __ Godber 1 (49 )

2.8 _ 30.0 __ baddie (L3-1) ____________________________ 35.0 __ Shillitocet (17)

2.6 _ --- --- __Kentish man (62) ________________________ 35.0 __ Let It Snow (L1-1)

2.4 _ 40.0 __ Godber 1 (49 ) ___________________________ 30.0 __ baddie (L3-1)

-------------

66 CET on time forecasts, 58 EWP, four late (1d) and one (3d), total 71 CET, 63 EWP

_ consensus (median) 4.9 C and 67.0 mm

 

Recent normals 

5.4 _ 77.2 __ 1995-2024 average ______________________ 77.2 _ 1995-2024 average

5.0 _ 72.4 __ 1991-2020 average _______________________ 72.4 _ 1991-2020 average

4.4 _ 66.5 __ 1981-2010 average _______________________ 66.5 _ 1981-2010 average

3.9 _ 65.8 __ average all data __________________________ 65.8 _ average all data

================================================

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Thanks 3
Ricardo23 Apprentice

Ricardo23

Posted
  • Location: Marske by the sea
  • Weather Preferences: Summer/Winter
  • Location: Marske by the sea
Posted

Consensus 4.9c would bring us the Coldest February for 7 years since you guessed it 2018.

LetItSnow Accomplished

LetItSnow

Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow, cool and wet.
  • Location: Islington, C. London
Posted (edited)

Oops. Late. I'm thinking it'll be drier than we've had for a while. I'm also thinking there will be some cold, maybe even bitter cold, but can't rule out some springlike warmth if any block collapses or goes Pits Up. 

4.7C and 35mm.

Edited by LetItSnow
Shunter Enthusiast

Shunter

Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
Posted

4.9c & 90mm for me plz

Shaunado Aficionado

Shaunado

Posted
  • Location: Egerton, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, sunshine, freezing fog, etc
  • Location: Egerton, Kent
Posted

3.8 and 69mm please.

DR(S)NO Community Regular

DR(S)NO

Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
Posted

Oops. Missed the deadline, sorry.

4.8c and 76mm

thank you please 

  • Like 1
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

 DR(S)NO

Not to worry, if the Madders are correct, that's 760cm of snow! 🤣

  • Like 2
Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted (edited)

 Methuselah

Actually 76 cm of snow = 76mm of precip at 10:1 ratios, a nice fluffy powder (76+38) 114 cm deep would reduce to 76 mm also, or a saturated paste of 50 cm could also reduce to 76 mm as well. 

General note: I have added four late forecasts to table and 4.9 is still our consensus, precip went up to 68 as 3/4 of late forecasts were above previous median. All four CET were below but there were enough 4.9 guesses to keep the median inside that group, one more forecast below 4.9 will shift consensus to 4.85.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

CET extremes for February (1772-2024) and 1991-2020 means

____________________________________________________________

This section is fully converted from CET 2.0 to CET v2.1 and in keeping with our new policy, 1991-2020 averages are in the table. 1981-2010 averages were actually a bit higher to 10th and then fell as much as 1.2 C lower in the second half of February to yield a net increase of 0.5 for 1991-2020 over 1981-2010 (in v 2.1). 

Records and extreme cumulative values are mostly converted also, and 2024 enters the table for highest running CET values near the end before being overtaken by 1779 at month's end (the running average cited for Feb 29 applies to all months of February, the  date average and extremes only to leap years). 

DATE .... MAX (year) .... MIN (year) .. .. 1991-2020 avg, cum to date .... Highest and lowest running CET 

01 Feb ... 11.1 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ...11.1 (1923) ... ... ... -6.8 (1956)
02 Feb ... 11.0 (2004) ... -6.5 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ...10.9 (1923) ... ... ... -6.6 (1956)
03 Feb ... 12.3 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... .... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ...10.8 (2004) ... ... ... -6.2 (1956)
04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -4.9 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.6.... .... ... 11.3 (2004) ... ... ... -5.0 (1956)
05 Feb ... 11.9 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ...11.5 (2004) ... ... ... -4.9 (1830)

06 Feb ... 10.3 (2011,24) ..-7.2 (1895) ... ... .... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ... 11.0 (2004) ... ... ... -5.1 (1830)
07 Feb ... 10.5 (1869) ... -7.8 (1895) ... ... .. ... .... 4.6 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ... 10.4 (2004) ... ... ... -3.7 (1830)
08 Feb ... 10.7 (1903) ... -8.5 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.6 (2004) ... ... ... -3.7 (1895)
09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831,1903) . -8.8 (1816)*... ... .... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
10 Feb ... 12.1 (1899) ... -6.6 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 9.3 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)

11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.1 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)
12 Feb ... 11.4 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 8.9 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)
13 Feb ... 12.0 (1998) ... -6.9 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.4 (1895)
14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.2 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)
15 Feb ... 13.8 (2024) ... -7.4 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)

16 Feb ... 10.5 (2022) ... -7.2 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
17 Feb ... 11.3 (1878) ... -7.0 (1855)... ... ... ... .... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
18 Feb ... 12.0 (2024) ... -3.8 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 8.7 (2024) ... ... ... -3.9 (1895)
19 Feb ... 10.5 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 8.8 (2024) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 8.8 (2024) ... ... ... -3.5 (1895)

21 Feb ... 11.4 (2019) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ..... 8.8 (2024) ... ... ... -3.2 (1895)
22 Feb ... 10.6 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ..... 8.7 (2024) ... ... ... -3.0 (1855&1895) 
23 Feb ... 11.9 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 5.6 ... ... ... 4.9 ..... .... .....8.5 (2024) ... ... ... -2.9 (1855) 
24 Feb ... 11.5 (2021) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 5.8 ... ... ... 5.0 .... .... ..... 8.3 (2024) ... ... ... -2.6 (1855) 
25 Feb ... 10.9 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 5.7 ... ... ... 5.0 .... .... ..... 8.1 (2024) ... ... ... -2.4 (1855) 

26 Feb ... 10.9 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 5.7 ... ... ... 5.0 .... .... ..... 7.9 (2024) ... ... ... ..-2.2 (1855)
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.5 ... ... ... 5.0 .... .... ..... 7.8 (1779&2024) ... -2.0 (1855&1895&1947) 
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ...(5.0).... .... ..... 7.9 (1779) ... ... ... -1.9 (1947) (-1.8 1895)

29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.1 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 5.5^... ... ..(5.1) .. .... ..... 7.8 (2024) ... ... ... -0.2 (1956)

*(1895 was -7.0 on 9th, coldest week in Feb was 6-12 Feb 1895 at --6.3).

^ This is the average of eight leap years 1992,96,2000,04,08,12,16,20 ... the 5.0 in brackets for running mean applies to all thirty years, for the eight leap years the average is actually 5.1 and for the 22 non-leap years it is still 5.0 (4.96), the leap years add enough to get the average to 5.00. (adding all thirty rounded means leaves a +0.1 differential from 150.0)

(150.1/30 = 5.003 ... leaps 40.9/8 = 5.11 and non-leaps 109.2/22 = 4.96)

v2.1 is often 0.1 higher than CET v2.0.1.0 was, at least in winter, some different conclusions can be drawn in other seasons.

This is why 1991-2020 average went up from 4.9 to 5.0, and 1981-2010 from 4.4 to 4.5. 

_________________________________________________________________________________

1981-2010 CET daily averages and running means (in that order for each day) can be viewed in Feb 2024 contest post similar to this.

Note: (of particular interest to new CET contest participants) ... in the daily reporting, the Metoffice comparisons to 1961-1990 are always against end-of-month 1961-1990 average value, and to complicate matters, rounded from second decimals we don't see in tables. 

Our in-house comparison to 1991-2020 however compares directly the running mean for 1991-2020 and not the 5.0 value at end of month (except when running mean is 5.0 towards end of February). This is because we got into the habit of doing it this way back when metoffice also did it that way in CET legacy (which ended in April 2022, since then, they have compared with end of month v2.0 and more recently v2.1 values). 

You have to memorize this to get a day pass. 

If you can also explain it, you get an unescorted day pass. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hessle
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hessle
Posted

image.thumb.png.7fee8d5e1827c81c85cde43327da0583.png

Latest update based on the EC 00z.

It looks like as though we have a mild start, no surprise there. After that it looks rather cold without much variation, though the odd day may struggle to bring a CET return above zero.

Overall EC is in line with the ensembles but is on the mild side from the 14th to 16th. Expect a CET in the late 3s or early 4s up to the 16th.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

5.2 to the 1st

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 91 to 20 average

  • Thanks 2
Metwatch Maestro

Metwatch

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Nov - Feb. Thunderstorms, 20-30°C and sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.2 to the 1st

The first day of this month with a CET the same as my entry for the monthly CET.

I wonder how common it is for a month to finish with the same CET as the CET of the 1st day of any given month. I imagine it's not that common but also not overly rare, maybe a once-in-a few year occurence? Seems like it happened for April 2024.

Edited by Metwatch
WYorksWeather Maestro

WYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

 Derecho That's milder than I thought actually. I was thinking my guess in the low 6s was already bordering on the ridiculous given the model output, but though unlikely, definitely not impossible with that mid-month return.

Anyway, enough of that, I want my guess to be wrong anyway 😀

Coldie24 Accomplished

Coldie24

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted

At least we don’t have to worry about the Daffodils making an early appearance this year!

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