February 2025 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Cloud2]

 baddie March 2018 was 4.9C, anything below that would be the coldest March since 2013 and also the 2nd coldest March of the 21st century. 

[cheeky_monkey]

Edmonton is currently at -25.0c which is -17c below normal for the first 5 days of Feb ..looks like it will remain cold or very cold for most of the month right now  

[LetItSnow]

 cheeky_monkey I feel like you guys/parts of Canada have had quite a few cold Februaries in recent times. 2015, 2018, 2019, 2022? (I'm not sure about this one), now maybe 2025 as well.

[Roger J Smith]

Today's GFS output looks milder (max avg 11 C, mins 4-6) after 14th and if so, we could see a 5 C CET by end of run. 

It continues to look fairly dry. I will post a first approximation for EWP scoring for your info (as an edit to Table of Forecasts on p4), based on an arbitrary value near 50 mm. If past experience is any guide, it won't be a lot of use later on, but it gives an answer to the question, what does your EWP score look like after a dry Feb? 

[Derecho]

Latest EC projections.

It looks rather chilly up until the 14th at least but nothing especially cold so we should be in the late 3s by that point.

However after that the EC is exceptionally mild and the CET jumps up to 5.4C a week later on the 21st.

It is on the mildest side of the ensemble at this stage.

However we have seen many times before, the models overestimate northern blocking and we end up in a very mild, persistent and unsettled pattern. I wouldn't rule that out.

I'm feeling quite good about my guess in the late 4s at this stage.

[Summer Sun]

5.3 to the 6th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 91 to 20 average

[Coldie24]

 LetItSnow It’s strange how the Gloseas seasonal forecasts fail to pick any colder outcomes!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.3C

+1.9C above the 1961 - 1990 average

+0.8C above the 1991 -2020 average.

Rainfall 0.3mm

0.5% of both the 1961 -1990 and 1991 - 2020 average.

[Summer8906]

 Derecho Reminds me a bit of February 2021 with the cold spell less potent.

Once we get to late Feb I start to look at min temps as well as max to get an idea of the likely weather.

If the daytime temps are mild but the night time temps are chilly, it suggests settled, spring-like weather which is not unwelcome by that point.

Sadly that table suggests mild night-time temps as well which probably means dull and damp tropical maritime. Still, only one run and on the model thread, uncertainty seems to be the main message.

 

Edited February 7 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

Today ended up about a degree or so higher than expected from what I can tell, mean perhaps around 3C, mainly due to mild minima last night. It feels pretty pathetic that in an easterly in early February we're still struggling to achieve cold means.

[Derecho]

 WYorksWeather Don't forget the minima goes from 0900 Thursday to 0900 Friday. The minima at 0900 Thursday will drag the CET down.

[LetItSnow]

 WYorksWeather After spending a few days looking at old Oxford data (19th century) and looking at old synoptics that were far less impressive to the eye yet were much colder at the surface, I can't lie, it has given me a bit of a pit in the stomach feeling of where we're at now and how much it takes to deliver nowadays.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.6C

1.2C above the 1961 - 1990 average

0.1C above the 1991 - 2020 average

Rainfall 0.6mm

0.9% of the 1961 - 1990 and 1991 - 2020 average.

 

[Summer Sun]

4.8 to the 7th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 91 to 20 average

[Snowyowl9]

 '71-'00 average January 4.2C
 February 4.2C 

February 2015 came out as 4.0c can t even remember what happened that month without looking..

Feb 2012 at 3.8c

February 2006 now that one I certainly do remember at 3.7c

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is low so far (2.7 mm to 6 Feb and probably about 5 mm now), and by 24 Feb GFS says only 25-30 total. I already set a low 43 mm total for "first approximation" scoring (with table of forecasts, p4). Only a few forecasts were below it.  

GFS 12z run is mild for a while after current cool spell ends, then flips to cold and snow by 23rd-24th. CET looks like around 5 C before that low-confidence flip begins. 

[Coldie24]

ECM looks great this evening for another cold month!

[WYorksWeather]

 Derecho Good point - it did end up a degree or so lower than I thought. I keep forgetting and looking at 9pm-9am.

[Frigid]

I guess we can say with some confidence, this February won't be another mild one. ECM 12z was quite exceptional for cold, I suspect the CET would be around 1.0C at the end of the run.. 

[currents]

8 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

February 2015 came out as 4.0c can t even remember what happened that month without looking..

I remember frequent cold zonal in Jan and Feb 2015.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.5C

+1.0C above the 1961 -1990 average

-0.2C below the 1991 - 2020 average

Rainfall 3.8mm

5.8% of both the 1961 - 1990 and 1991 - 2020 average

Edited February 9 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

4.6 to the 8th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 91 to 20 average

[Snowyowl9]

 currents

I remember january quite well but not february looked a very average month memory wise same as the temps..

There was a cold spell during the first 9 days a Nly some snow and then the HP that toppled over us..

9 consecutive air frosts...

Edited February 9 by Snowyowl9

[Derecho]

14 hours ago, Frigid said:

I guess we can say with some confidence, this February won't be another mild one. ECM 12z was quite exceptional for cold, I suspect the CET would be around 1.0C at the end of the run.. 

I think that confidence is misplaced, it could still end up mild. The 12z EC yesterday was the coldest in the ensemble pack by some distance.

Todays EC 00z is more in line with the ensemble mean, though I'd say a little on the cold side.

Some runs bring in the milder air from the 13th and given how close the mild air is to us.... those runs could easily come into fruition.

Overall though the consensus is for rather average temperatures up to around the 20th. All pretty mundane.

Those in the high 4s I think are looking best at the moment. Expect the CET to be around 4-4.5C as we enter the last week of the month but it could be substantially higher if the milder runs come into fruition.

Edited February 9 by Derecho

[damianslaw]

Not expecting much change in the CET by mid month, perhaps a slight drop by the weekend. Cloudy skies will uphold mins and no particular noteworthy cold on the way, all very average.

Second half of the month could go 2 ways, mild or cold.. too early to call, but still a good chance of a below average CET month.