February 2025 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Roger J Smith]

Looks dry in general, CET to 4.5-5.0 before possible colder days late in 16 period (back to 4.0 is projection for 25 Feb)

If EWP scoring needs work it may be a lower estimate.

[Summer Sun]

4.6 to the 9th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 91 to 20 average

[Coldie24]

Looking good for high 3s/low 4s. Should stay cold for a fair few days and there’s uncertainty after that.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.4C

+0.9C above the 1961 - 1990 average

-0.1C below the 1991 - 2020 average

Rainfall 5.4mm 8.3% of both the 1961 - 1990 and 1991 - 2020 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.3C

+0.8C above the 1961 - 1990 average

-0.2C below the 1991 - 2020 average

Rainfall up to 11.9mm

18.2% of the 1961 - 1990 monthly average.

18.3% of the 1991 - 2020 monthly average

[Roger J Smith]

CET

4.5 to the 10th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 91 to 20 average

[Roger J Smith]

12z GFS predicts an abrupt regime change after 16th, average 11-16 is near 2 C and average 17-27 is close to 9 C. It brings CET down to 3.6 by 16th and up to 5.5 C near end of Feb. If the milder spell only averaged 7 C it goes to 4.8, an 8 C average ends at 5.2 C. 

EWP now only 12-13 mm (10.4 to 9 Feb), GFS still generally dry and adds 20 mm as grid average but 70-100 mm over Ireland and western Scotland; a few higher grid points are close to EWP zone now and so the projection of 35 mm is uncertain and has large upside bust potential. 

Looking at map for 27 Feb if GFS verified totally, 28 Feb likely to be a near-average zonal and dry set-up that would not change any of the projections to 27 Feb. 

As recently as 00z GFS there was a colder pattern with a briefer mild spell and CET projection of 3.5 to 4.0, so we're in a rather uncertain zone at present, almost any forecasts could be good at end of play (will say 5.7 CET is probably top plausible).

[WYorksWeather]

 Roger J Smith By contrast, tonight's ECM 12z has pulled out a really cold run. I wonder if CET would even finish in the 2s if it verified? Highly unlikely though based on the ensembles.

I think overall that gives you a decent range of outcomes - anything from mid 2s to mid 5s is plausible. Certainly an unusually wide spread for so late in the month. I still think 4s is best placed - I went with 6.0C so almost certainly too high unless a very mild outcome verifies.

[Roger J Smith]

It's odd alright, GFS is usually a colder model and yet it keeps oscillating cold/mild.  

GEM looks fairly mild by days seven to ten also.

 

[WYorksWeather]

 Roger J Smith Not sure how closely you've been following the UK models but effectively we have a situation where a sharp cold/mild boundary sits very close to the UK. Some of the more extreme runs are pumping very mild south-westerlies into the UK, whilst the opposite extreme has very cold easterlies, these well represented by the GFS and ECM 12z operational runs respectively. More likely outcomes somewhere in the middle perhaps a bit of a holding pattern for a few days then a slower warm up.

 

[Daniel*]

A more seasonal Feb so far in London we're tracking much more below average than CET area. Average temp currently 4.4C same as January roughly 1.5C below overall monthly 1991-2020 average.

 

Edited February 11 by Daniel*

[WYorksWeather]

 Daniel* Interesting how this varies from location to location. Obviously you're somewhat closer to the continent with less moderation, so would have expected it to be colder relative to average, but not as cold as that.

Incidentally average temperatures at my local station are 4.5C for the month to date. Very rare for us to equal or exceed London over a month in absolute terms, so will be interesting to see where this finishes up.

[Coldie24]

Gfs continues to show a mild outlook to give an above average February and winter.

The odds look to have shifted once again!

[Summer Sun]

4.4 to the 10th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 91 to 20 average

[damianslaw]

Not the drop I perhaps anticipated so far, mainly due to cloudy nights helping to keep mins up. May see a fall to 4 degrees or high 3s by Sunday with clearer skies and colder nights, but that is likely to be the low point with a possible marked rise through the new week.

Are we about to see a Feb 09, 12, 21, cold first halves, cancelled out by very mild second halves, though first half Feb 25 just very average not cold. 

[Frigid]

On 08/02/2025 at 23:07, Frigid said:

I guess we can say with some confidence, this February won't be another mild one. ECM 12z was quite exceptional for cold, I suspect the CET would be around 1.0C at the end of the run.. 

Unfortunately, I feel I was quite premature with this statement. Models have ramped up to significant mild it seems, wouldn't be surprised if we were in the 6s by the end of February. Still some time to go, but looking like yet another mild February 

[North-Easterly Blast]

 damianslaw So far I do not think that this February has been comparable to 2009, 2012 or 2021 - the first two especially were much colder in the first half than this month has been, and 2021 saw a much more potent cold spell in the second week than this month has seen.  You are correct, all three of those months saw a complete flip at almost exactly mid-month into very mild second halves - all three of those months looked promising for a cold month near the beginning but after the mid-month flip all ended up close to average or even above in the end.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.1C

+0.6C above the 1961 - 1990 average

-0.4C below the 1991 - 2020 average

Rainfall 15.4mm

23.6% of the monthly average for 1961 -1990 and 1991- 2020 average.

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

nights, but that is likely to be the low point with a possible marked rise through the new week.

I wouldn’t be sure of that…

[WinterWeatherManiac]

Hi everyone! I'm Scott and I'm new here. I'm just learning for now, so I'll read a lot and take it all in. In the meantime, I was wondering if anyone could spare the time to explain how I can recreate this image using the ESRL mapping tools. Thanks.

 

Here is the link to the image:

[Roger J Smith]

12z GFS still with a general upward trend in CET after 16th but now with a brief cold shot from s.e. around 23rd, but back into milder air mass by 25 Feb, net result around 5 C. This run is also very dry, no precip at all in s.e. England and grid average barely 10 mm to reach a total near 25 mm. 

I added alternate scoring for 30 mm, only needed for driest forecasts below 56 mm. 

Edited February 12 by Roger J Smith

[Festivefreeze]

Would you say it's looking very unlikely we'll record a colder than average winter now? 

[Summer Sun]

4.4 to the 12th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 91 to 20 average

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Festivefreeze  Would you say it's looking very unlikely we'll record a colder than average winter now? 

Given we have only had one clear-cut month below the 1961-90 CET since Dec 2022   (Jan 2025), getting a below average season is looking very difficult to achieve.  I would say it would take a major volcanic eruption, on the scale of Mount Tambora, 1815.  That would do it.  I don't particularly want a year without a summer though..

The Pinatubo eruption, 1991 is thought to have lowered global temperatures by 0.5°C the following year.  

Edited February 13 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Jackmonday06]

no matter what the stats say I would 100% call this winter the best in a while since the 1st January we have only recorded 10C 4 times in York had one of the best snowfalls in years and had a 12 day streak where the temperature didn’t rise above 5C all of these quite rare nowadays.