The change in the character of February

[Summer8906]

 B87 Indeed, the dull nature of August is especially noticeable.

I'm surprised July isn't duller too in 91-20 versus 81-10: we have lost the very sunny Julys of 1983, 1984, 1989 and 1990 and the fairly sunny July of 1985 - and gained just three in return in 2013, 2014 and 2018 plus a raft of seven other Julys with varying degrees of dullness. On balance I'd expect July sun to have gone down.

Interesting about October given the Octobers of the 2011-20 period featured five that seemed sunny, at least here (2011 and 2015-18) while the 80s Octobers, except 1985, didn't seem especially great.

Edited January 26 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 richie3846 Indeed, extreme heatwaves in May have been marked by their absence. In the 21st century I can only recall two spells that I would call genuine heatwaves in May (which I think of as widespread 28C+ that time of year), namely end of the month in 2003 and that brief heat spike in 2005. The latter was more a heat spike than a heatwave, so that just leaves end of 2003 to which the term "heatwave" could be accurately applied in May.

All other hot spells in May have been quite gentle, warm rather than hot.

30C in May seems very difficult to achieve, again I believe only 2003 and 2005 have done it. I don't think any year in the 80s or 90s achieved 30C in May, not sure when the previous occasion before 2003 was?

Edited January 26 by Summer8906

[overcast]

Interesting discussion. l remember asking my grandfather, a keen gardener born in 1899, if he thought the weather was changing. This was after the run of mild winters in the early 70s. His reply "Not overall, except for one thing - Spring is coming earlier and March has  'lost its bite'. That was the month I used to  fear when working outside".

[richie3846]

 Summer8906 1920s to the 1950s hold a number of date records for May, including some of the ones over 30c

[Summer8906]

Incidentally what of the old saying "February fill-dyke", made in a poem in 1881 apparently?

Was this maybe a reflection of that previous run of mostly mild Februaries in the 19th century?

[Weather-history]

 Summer8906

 

The earliest newspaper report of the term "February fill-dyke" I have so found is from 21st February 1833.

 

What a frustrating winter month February is or has become.  The last really cold one was February 1991  and even that had a milder second half but not enough to overcome the frigid first half.

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

 Weather-history Come to think of it, the only significantly cold January we have had since 1987 was in 2010; apart from that it has on a handful of occasions in recent times been slightly below average, such as in 2009, 2013, 2021 and the one just gone (2025).  In more recent times, on a handful of occasions, February has been around 0.5 to 1*C below average, in 2010, 2013 and 2018, but you are correct that we have not had a really cold one since 1991.

Edited February 14 by North-Easterly Blast

[Snowyowl9]

Coldest February decades..to the mildest using the CET figure..
Great to of lived through the coldest decade of the century..

1910s to 30s was very mild then..

1...1980s...3.39c
2...1940s...3.44c
3...1900s...3.6c
3...1960s...3.6c
5...1950s...3.7c
6...1970s...3.9c
7...1990s...4.3c 
8...1930s...4.5c
9...1920s...4.6c
10...1910s...4.63c
11..2010s...4.7c
12..2000s...5.0c

Edited February 15 by Snowyowl9

[damianslaw]

 Snowyowl9 A near 2 degree difference between the 80s and 2000s.. that is significant. No wonder people who remember the 80s well, think Februaries are far milder now, and the stats back it up. Mind the 80s stats are probably skewed by 3 cold Februaries 1983, 1985 and 1986. Feb 80, 81, 84 and 87 were nearer average. Feb 82, 88 and 89 were all above.

There was no notably cold Feb in the 00s. Indeed a few very mild ones 00, 02, 04, 07, and 08. If the 20s Febs continue in similiar vein it will easily replace the 00s I expect. 

[Snowyowl9]

 damianslaw

A slight edit..

The 1940s was a close second who d thought that..

Crazy difference between the 1980s and 2000s just 20 years..

Of course the late 80s when big changes were noticeably first happening..February was more subtle..

Edited February 15 by Snowyowl9

[Metwatch]

On 14/02/2025 at 07:14, Weather-history said:

The last really cold one was February 1991  and even that had a milder second half but not enough to overcome the frigid first half.

Out of the 1991-2020 years, Feb 1991 had the lowest CET maximum at 5.0C, meanwhile Feb 1947 was 0.0C

February 2025 is currently running at 6.4C, the 1991-2020 average is 8.0C!

Edited February 15 by Metwatch

[ANYWEATHER]

Well it's been a very cold February here, no matter what the CET says .....

[Metwatch]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Well it's been a very cold February here

That is of course subjective, but with only 1 air frost this month here and many other areas, first half of this month has been far from a "a very cold" February. Just chilly / cold by day, consistently near average by night with temperatures of 2-4C

Edited February 15 by Metwatch

[Thundery wintry showers]

The CET for February is currently running at 4.2C, which is 0.4C above the 1961-90 average but 0.7C below the 1991-2020 average. Thus, cool by recent standards, but not by longer-term standards. I note that the easterly spell has had temperatures hovering at around the 1961-90 average. Even considering that it has been sourced mainly from south-eastern Europe, that's very notable.

I remember noting in 2021/22 that an average February over 1991-2020 was about as mild as February 1988. The 1995-2024 average (5.4C) is now equal to February 2008. That's pretty scary, as I've always thought of February 2008 as a mild month.

The 1.7C warming of February is probably down to two factors. I noted recently in a Netweather blog that the Februarys of 2020 to 2024 were remarkably mild, far more so than one would expect in line with the warming climate. Also, February showed a slight cooling trend during the 20th century up until the 1980s, implying that cold synoptics were probably anomalously frequent towards the end of that period.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just realised that February 2008 in the most up to date CET series is now on 5.6C (the old value was 5.4C), so what I said about February 08 was a slight exaggeration, but we're only talking two tenths of a degree. 5.4C is equal to February 1992 on the current series and within a tenth of a degree of 2004 and 2021.

[Dark Horse]

 Thundery wintry showers the CET will steadily rise from Thursday I'd imagine. Another February goes by that is devoid of proper cold. 

Edited February 15 by Dark Horse

[B87]

 Metwatch In London it's currently running an average max of 6.8c, which is 2.2c below average.

A July with an average max 2.2c above average (26.1c) would certainly be described as a very warm or hot month.

[LetItSnow]

I don't really agree with calling winter months like this one "cold", but it depends on how one is using that word. If you're using to describe the feel, then yes. It's often been raw and dank. However, I tend to use the term cold for notably cold months. So a February like 1991 or 1996. In that sense, February 2025 has not been a cold month. It's running above average! Calling a month cold due to the 1991-2020 or 1995-2024 averages... I agree for climatic reasons to moniter the change of the weather, but a 3C January or 4C February is not "cold" to me, personally.

Edited February 15 by LetItSnow

[Metwatch]

47 minutes ago, B87 said:

average max of 6.8c,

6.8°C as a single daytime max pretty much any part of the winter is bordering on being "average" here

A max of 26°C for most in England is just a very warm day but as a monthly mean in central / southern areas it's described as hot because there'll be quite a few days above that mean but then also a few below it. Monthly means of course masks individual days that are hotter or cooler. Summer and winter have different standards anyway, not really comparable.

Edited February 15 by Metwatch

[B87]

 Metwatch But a 6.8c February has the same anomaly as a 26.1c July. Even keeping it to February, a +2.2c anomaly would give an average high of 11.2c here, which would definitely be seen as very mild.

A 2.2c anomaly over a month is pretty high for an oceanic climate.

Edited February 15 by B87

[Metwatch]

February mean maxes will vary across the country but that is what i'll class them given February is becoming milder on average:

Under 4.5C: cold

4.5-6.5C: chilly

6.5-8.5C: average

8.5-10.5C: Mild

Over 10.5C: very mild

29 minutes ago, B87 said:

A 2.2c anomaly over a month is pretty high for an oceanic climate.

Summer and winter are different, standard deviation I think is the term for that, higher in winter than in summer. Mild is also more likely than cold these days, especially in February, so the averages are shifting. This February overall after the upcoming mild spell definitely won't be chilly or cold anymore either! Just the first half that can be classed as chilly / cold.

Edited February 15 by Metwatch

[B87]

 Metwatch London's average February max is 9.0c, so even a normal one would be mild under that classification!

[MoreCryoraptor]

 B87 Maybe, but there are a couple issues with this.

Firstly, Heathrow is a relatively low POR. It only began recording in 1948 and only has complete records from the 50s.

Secondly, the reliability of Heathrow as a station has been questioned numerous times although I'm not going to rehash that argument as it's honestly not necessary.

Thirdly, winter is simply far more variable than summer.

Looking at July, the hottest on record is 2006 with an average high of 28.2°C (a stark reminder of how hot Heathrow can get nowadays). A July with an average high of 26.1°C would be on par with 1994 which is the seventh-hottest on record, so not the hottest ever but notably warm.

If we now look at February, an average high of 6.8°C is nowhere near the coldest on record. It'd barely be the tenth coldest. A bit cold yes, especially in this era, but in a POR of about 70 years? It's not really that exceptional, especially compared to the actual record coldest. With July, there's a disparity of 2.1°C between 26.1°C and the hottest, but with February, there's a 4.9°C difference between 6.8°C and the coldest oon record.

If we go to Oxford, which has been recording data for over 200 years, and account for UHI of about 1°C, then a February of equal max anomaly to 6.8°C at Heathrow would be in the region of 30th or 40th coldest, which really isn't that cold anymore. It's a bit colder than usual but nothing extraordinary; we've had at least two this century colder.

I'm not going to paste the entire list here, but the link for this data can be found here:

Average February Temperature in Oxford by Year

WWW.EXTREMEWEATHERWATCH.COM

None of this even considers that the average temperature has been 6.8°C so far and given that a much milder spell is likely on the way towards the latter half of next week, the final average will very likely be considerably higher than 6.8°C.

[MoreCryoraptor]

14 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

This February overall after the upcoming mild spell definitely won't be chilly or cold anymore either! Just the first half that can be classed as chilly / cold.

Also, we have to remember that the average temp isn't flat over the month of February; the average high begins near it's minimum on Feb 1st before rapidly increasing by Feb 28th - The average high across the entirety of February may be 9.0°C, but the first half of February will be significantly below 9.0°C average. It's more likely that it reaches 9.0°C average by around the 20th and maybe the best part of 10.0°C by the 28th, while the beginning of the month is more in the region of 8.0°C.

[Metwatch]

A good post I was looking for on standard deviations of all months.

Edited February 15 by Metwatch