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Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

This has gone under the radar mostly due to storm Éowyn on Friday, but there are further strong winds forecast on Sunday courtesy of another low pressure system. AIFS 6z has it modelled at close to 950mb near Ireland during Sunday with strong winds across the UK.

1737464922891157427506991702491.thumb.jpg.f329cda03920bbea5e2e0b28d1314b03.jpg

ECM is slightly weaker but also a notable system.

17374649514306666880585302816270.thumb.png.219cdd560da2d3a407fbf23f017abb77.png

 

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: St Austell
  • Weather Preferences: Storms! High Winds! Tornadoes! Hurricane!
  • Location: St Austell
Posted

 Mcconnor8 I wonder where that wave is heading also? Will this become a secondary low head into France or into England. Very volatile situation 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

17374666371299008876955638929851.thumb.png.9a8ec910e58e1719701172f1de6607fb.png

Very nasty 952mb low on the AIFS 6z on Sunday evening, these winds are more country wide due to the strong pressure gradient across the UK. As this is only 5 days away now I expect this will be the next named storm.

17374668197612708602091525371339.thumb.png.a3a3893ddb98ba546b037099d06f4bfa.png

ECM 6z is similar to the AI.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

17374841073512951912506902100833.thumb.gif.c6e4816b73b21eb62b258c6ea648bf36.gif

ECM 12z maintains the theme for Sunday/Monday unfortunately 

Posted
  • Location: St Austell
  • Weather Preferences: Storms! High Winds! Tornadoes! Hurricane!
  • Location: St Austell
Posted

I know everyone is focused on the storm for Friday but any updates to Sunday/Monday's potential storm?? 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Daydream Boy 17375552186225155036058196945524.thumb.png.40b2fc62a9c3bb8b0da0aa8ad2ed359c.png17375552513062236247295996188933.thumb.png.0e3c176c764890548da2a6bb7e109b4e.png17375552885864151516175113144434.thumb.png.cc8bfc084915d09a20d189a382127668.png

Various periods of high winds and lots of rain across Sunday-Tuesday, nothing to the extent of Eowyn speed wise but probably worthy of being a named storm.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

GFS has the secondary low going up the W of England and exiting NE England. UKMO tracks it across the S of England. Looks like we are entering a stormy period and I wouldn't be surprised if a few other strong lows show up during next week.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 The PIT 17375854417355029682338339826724.thumb.gif.42e681fa396548bb4d6be793abc01f1f.gif17375854628985590494791383503529.thumb.gif.22b783ccee07435133b1ad8bce001af4.gif

GFS 18z brings a vicious secondary low through the South 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

 Mcconnor8 that looks good fun. GFS has been keen on that secondary low on many runs of late, but ECM doesn't even have as much as a bulge in the isobars 🤔

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
Posted

Surprised this hasn't got more attention. This is the UK Met Office max gusts around midday Monday. image.thumb.png.d9ea91300b2915de2bd5c403c5d4c100.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
Posted

 Wivenswold I've given my family and friends a suggestion that any travels they need to make to be done on Saturday: Eowyn on Friday and definitely unpleasant driving weather on Sunday, whether or not it becomes Floris. Am always a little taken aback at how my very amateur weather tips always take them by surprise..." Storm? What storm?" 😅

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (37.1M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (37.1M ASL)
Posted

 Wivenswold Very 1987 esque

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
Posted

 *Stormforce~beka* Yes, though I should caution that this secondary low is only a feature on the UKMO output at this time. It wasn't modeled on their 10 day trend video this afternoon.

The risk with this secondary low is that the primary low won't be forming for another 36-48 hours. Clearly the potential is there though and this should be monitored closely here down south.

I agree, very 1987-looking, especially for Kent and East Sussex.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
Posted

Eowyn still impacting Scotland as the next significant low pulls into view. And bad news for crews looking to mend fallen power lines

0123twolows.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

 Jo Farrow  It looks like Éowyn could be more severe but within a smaller area than the next low which looks like it will affect more of the country.

Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Yellow warnings for wind and rain now issued for Sunday, but covering regions further south than Eowyn

Edited by A Face like Thunder
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

17376488498986226053035071746375.thumb.png.244714ae0a4771b6bbfe63d39f18e5a3.png

Arpege has a pretty windy day for the South on Monday from this low pressure system

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
Posted

Interesting that the daughter low appears to have formed further NE over the North Sea thus making it a more conventional windy winter day.

The concern from that UKMO output yesterday was that it would form over the Channel then give the South East a battering on on it's SW flank as it exited over the North Sea (1987-style). 

I think this may still have a way to go before we know what Monday will bring.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

17376536941206563324518857264496.thumb.png.daffc2229b20c0a0dd70dabee73364e9.png17376537039698095177432875696221.thumb.png.626f22d903e3933c3c73e1ade1b0b657.png

UKMO spawns a 1987 style storm on Sunday night.

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)

 Mcconnor8

ECM, picks up this potential now too of a more defined secondary low pressure system swinging NNE bringing potential for very strong winds.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met.uk(4).thumb.png.1b54c4159569c0e2e11cc7a21deaf209.png

Gusts in KPH.

sfcgustmax_006h-met.uk(4).thumb.png.634c8274b4c0f6d40823ff9a9f7e22e4.png

sfcgustmax_006h-met.uk(5).thumb.png.c1f0ec1469b26b14b48837700140b073.png

Edited by Jordan S
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Jordan S 17376552137301057597259750511973.thumb.jpg.e4892a8fa8cd5eb9a6983c43acb7e104.jpg

Yep looks nasty for the SE on this run, its going to move around a fair amount for sure until models get a handle on it

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

GFS it say no UKMO it say yeh. ECM to have deciding vote. I'll wait for high res as they have a narrower time span and will show the relevant details.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

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