Storm Herminia - Sunday into next week

[Dreckly]

Had strong winds, heavy rain

Damage with trees down 

Thunder and lightning 

Now reports of flooding 

North Cornwall 

[smichling]

 Saint coolio  I agree, I think they should split the map up into warning types, and you can select which hazards you want to show up. So if I just ticked the box for wind warnings it wouldn't show rain or snow warnings for example. I think that would clean the maps up a little!

[Mapantz]

The wind has finally started to pick up here. 47mph from the SSE is a rarity for these parts.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 sunnijimWhat a bloody mess this is! Seems I'm under 3 warnings but stained glass window knows what they all are!

[Mapantz]

Make that 51mph..

[Summertime Sadness]

 *Stormforce~beka* Same, Rain, wind & wind is what I can make out

[Mizzle]

 Mcconnor8 I was still a bit confused. Had a day off the forums yesterday due to family visit and came on now to find people talking of Storm Herminia on Sunday (which I am guessing is the cause of today's hoolie). And obviously got wondering about F and G. So I had a hunt on Google, found this wiki page, and momentarily was even more confused! However, on reading through it, things become a little clearer, but my goodness, how do non-weather geeks cope?

2024–25 European windstorm season - Wikipedia

EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

 

[Saint coolio]

Summary of weather forecast on BBC just now: “we don’t know”

[The PIT]

Strange we got yellow warnings for winds just in the mid forties. No idea why.  ECM doesn't shown anything. GFS doesn't show anything and UKV doesn't show anything higher.

[Lord Grogon]

BBC forecast just now. Stav basically just said that they haven’t really got a clue about the “mini” low this evening. Where it will go or how windy .

Also agree with others on here. Met Office really need to sort their warning graphics. Do it by regions, single color for highest warning level. Drill down to details.

[swebby]

 Dreckly  Dreckly much the same here in Exeter, except for fallen trees but that may be cos i've not been out and about.  The wheelie bins on my road have certainly been going on their adventures so would not be surprised to also see trees down. What has been a surprise however is the thunder and lightning!

Edited January 26 by swebby

[Bluehill]

Well the seat paddings on my balcony (east facing, London) just blew off, I’m glad I was in haha, that’s the first time in years they have ever done that. The gusts are strong! 

[Mcconnor8]

All the main models 6z runs (AI, ECM, GFS & UKMO) seem to be in broad agreement over the small low at midnight tonight.

The low isn't particularly deep on any of them and with the usual small variations on position. ECM slightly deeper than the rest therefore would have stronger gusts in the affected areas.

Edited January 26 by Mcconnor8

[Mcconnor8]

UKV 9z shows a small band of strong gusts moving North and lots of rain overnight. 

It also has a tiny patch of what look to be 80+ mph gusts right on the South Coast at 11PM

Edited January 26 by Mcconnor8

[MAF]

 Mcconnor8 Latest BBC24 forecast has now mentioned the secondary low. Hinted it might move along the north coast and be a bit potent albeit for a short period of time. 

[Summertime Sadness]

Latest wind speeds. 82 in Capel Curig, Wales yet still a yellow warning

 

[Josh Rubio]

This looks a bit concerning? This ‘tail’ is forecast to head right for me around 02:00.

 

[Mcconnor8]

 Josh Rubio

Arome 9z for 2AM shows the small area of higher gusts, even at just 16 hours away it could easily be positioned quite differently from shown here though, gusts of 60-70mph.

Edited January 26 by Mcconnor8

[Mcconnor8]

UKV 12z charts for 11PM, 1AM and 3AM. 

[Paul Birkin]

 Josh Rubio that does look strange....not really seen anything like that before?

[jimben]

 *Stormforce~beka* Go to the Met Office website and go to forecast and enter your location. For instance for Winchester you have a rain and wind for today and you can click on the warnings for more information. For Monday you have two wind warnings and a rain warning. For Tuesday you have a wind warning.

Hope this helps

[Jordan S]

Maximum wind gusts upto the last hour or so, with focus particularly for the areas most effected this morning..

Total rainfall..

Safe to say it's been a very wild start for some of these areas with a fair amount of rainfall in places.

And with additional heavy rain this evening, can definitely see some flooding being reported a bit more widely.

Just want to update on this secondary low once more then it's monitoring observation sites it is..

Latest ECM on this secondary low which could give a brief stormy spell to some tonight..

Met office fax charts indicate a more east track centred over southeast England in comparison..

Similar to the ECM AI 00z

Probably more likely taking a track closer to them than the ECM.

Anyway, Channel isles after a lessening this afternoon of the winds, they will likely see a rapid increase in wind speed by evening with a short spell of 50-65mph. A smaller risk of slightly more depending on intensity of the system.

Here's the UKv 06z run on this potentially potent secondary low.

Mean speed..

Gusts..

Now the 09z (the 12z has increased them slightly more.

Gusts..

A definite strengthening of the winds evident on the latest update.

The strength of the wind remains a bit uncertain, but this is what I think with the most likely outcome..

 Most likely

         

45-55mph inland, locally 60mph, so that is a bit of an increase compared to the earlier post this morning.

55-65mph along parts of the south/southeast coast, close to or 70mph in one or two exposed coastal spots.

 

Slightly less likely

           

55-65mph inland, locally 70mph.

65-70mph along parts of the south/southeast coast, 75mph in one or two exposed coastal spots.

 

Least likely

       

65-70mph inland, locally 75mph.

75-80mph along parts of the south/southeast coast, with the additional risk of 80-85mph in the most exposed coastal location (the needles probably!.)

Given the severity of the least likely outcome, it's still worth baring in mind until this evening at least but it is unlikely.

The low will pass close to or over the channel Islands at first, where it tracks is obviously still a bit uncertain afterwards but I mentioned above the track I think it will take, It's a brief event lasting no more than 1-3 hours, and at any one time locations effected are small, but could be a lively event for some with very strong winds, with a particular narrow swathe inland that could be at greatest risk of recieving the mentioned gusts of each scenario, with a wraparound of the precipitation too., possibly causing some issues, the small chance of significant damage in a few areas, if the worst case scenario does occur.

Ofcourse the heavy rain too is very likely regardless of outcome, again it could be very heavy in places, between 10-30mm accumulating quite widely, locally 50-70mm possible, probably those higher totals focused on south/southeast facing hillier parts, with the small risk of local hill snow on its northwest flank further north.

Pressure of the low probably deepening to 970-972mb as it moves northeast inland later this evening and overnight exiting eastern England with pressure getting down to 968-967mb as it is into the northsea where it will soon after gradually fill (pressure will rise).

Hope this proves useful, but keep checking the Met office warnings.

Edited January 26 by Jordan S

[Mcconnor8]

Does look like a nasty feature on the GFS 12z

[Ciarán]

There's definitely supercells forming along that tail feature, as someone else said it reminds me of October 31st 2021 events.

[Hurricane Andrew]

 Mcconnor8 wow dont like the look of that over my area