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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

It wouldn't be a GFS pub run without a ridiculous low blowing up somewhere deep in FI.

image.thumb.png.b85fa141c197e3cdcb956cc76b186b98.png

image.thumb.png.cceb89e1dba8d737d5129a10410e692a.png

With that, I'm off to bed. Let's see what happens over the next few days.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

The lack of posts tonight on the 18z speaks volumes!

gfsnh-0-270.thumb.png.e6cf1ef4e2b5d16ac3c0ca15b7431062.pnggfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.245009aad44c6f30b1020912fed2621d.png

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted (edited)

GFS18z in far outer reaches showing the type of synoptics it was churning out for the current timescales, alas deep bowling lows through the UK have not verified this week after last weekend storms, its not to say they won't happen..

Edited by damianslaw
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe/extreme
  • Location: Hermon Pembrokeshire(184M ASL)
Posted

 Met4Cast maybe it's a good sign that the pub run isn't good😉

Just like the JMA being bad😂

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)

 HarvSlugger

The 18z ensemble suite goes along with it, pretty poor and certainly a step away from the colder easterly idea, sadly. 

IMG_3753.thumb.png.04fb9a5132e48cdb92b0f4c807718b95.png

Mean barely dips below average throughout and fewer members dip below -10C compared with previous runs. Just one run of course. 

Edited by Met4Cast
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
Posted

 HarvSlugger

Main thing is ens aren't too bad, i mean relative to what they were looking like a few days ago, obviously would still need a big improvement to be classed as a strong signal for a proper cold spell.

image.thumb.png.5e6bb93183552c5bfe263d5ac3fe79a0.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted

Heck, I'd take the GFS 18z 384hr third time lucky runner from the Northwest and like it or lump it. Best split and pressure on the vortex for the whole run. 

gfseuw-0-384.png?18

We're getting to the snow cut-off date though lolz 🤣

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted (edited)

Interestingly semi-decent Med low at 192 and a low marathon runner goes over the top of that (straight out of Novaya Zemlya) and ends up smack dab in the middle of the 384 vortex split. It's pulses. There's waves and pulses. We get hit by the backwash PV that come from the NW

 

 

Edited by kumquat
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

@Met4Cast will have at your post today 

The overnight runs thus far - the UKMO / GFS / ICON all for once seem fairly well aligned-

The development of the initial pulse of heights to the NE remaining in situ & then building back west around 120 - with the deeper cold in central Europe.

A second attempt at amplification to the west of the UK day 6-7 & critically the upper air cold pool get another 'assist' west.

All we need is enough westward motion to get across the North sea.

A pretty good start to the day - UKMO especially better at 144 & 168 as well.

GFS 180 sums it all up quite well. 

B31E6652-D745-4FAD-B933-5F6C3A4EC03B.thumb.png.a031a3d13d6758ff3a7d33497832102b.png40A5C77E-31C4-4885-88FA-42CB2D30CA1A.thumb.png.dcd61a2ddeba7475fe6f998d02138b24.png48B80732-F052-47FF-A425-05033048A27A.thumb.png.5ecfd0ce328da5f4054da4f2c222ed8e.png

 

What could well work in our favour is further trough activity diving south an the atlantic allowing for the Easterly to 'escort' that cold pool west. At this stage no sign of any azores high ridging NE killing it all.

Either way an impressive block.- we will need similar advection west a la 1991.

 

Edited by Wedgesmakesledges
  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T168 ukmo and gfs. Gfs goes onto show what most coldies don’t want. Nothing yet sorted. 

IMG_2557.png

IMG_2556.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted (edited)

I suggested a few days back that the basic situation is a stand-off between the Siberian block extention and the raging pv.

Nothing has really changed in the sense that all we are witnessing in the model output is the waxing  and waning of each of those features with the UK sitting on the borderline between the two.

Yesterday a bit of excitement in the modelling as the Siberian high extention waxed a bit and the pv waned a bit allowing hints of some brief easterly dominance.

What will today bring?

According to the 00z runs the waxing and waning has switched back in favour of the raging pv  and aligning with the meto nw/se split forecast.

 

Edited by Chesil View
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

I was slightly bemused yesterday as I just coulnt come to grips with what some were seeing, or hoping for in the output. As far as I can see the output is as stable as ive seen it for a long time in terms of the next 10 days or so. An increasing high pressure dominating pattern for the UK, no storms in sight and no deep cold via an easterly either. Even when we have been shown a brief breeze from the continent on the odd run, its been nothing but that with no evidence of any real cold pool to the east heading our way.

UKMO 168 and Met text  sums up the outlook, mostly dry, temps around or slightly below average especially inland.

UKMHDOPEU00_168_1-28.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

@nick sussex a flabby high? Your concern yesterday? Not great. Gfs not great. Not done but not what coldies wanted to see unfortunately.

IMG_2565.png

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

Definitely downgrades this morning on the 850s front but the block is still there so hopefully things will change again.👍

 

 

 

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

The key timescales of interest are still out in FI - so nothing has been firmed up.  The ECM run this morning is not as good as last night's but the ECM AI continues to be positive. 

Edited by mulzy
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

Teleconnections are 2 nil up with 30 minutes to play, can't see the models coming back now.

Any Easterly will be about 1000 miles to far East for us.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
Posted

Were heading towards the final third of Winter now and it's that time, where time...is running out.

 

I can't see anything now in the various data sets that gives the snow starved amongst us, anything to be excited about out to as far as 10th February.

 

Which then leaves us with 3 or so weeks to try and squeeze something out of Winters tail..i'm not quite ready for a 'winters over' post, but its headed that way.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

That's two poor Ukmo runs on the bounce now but much more concerning is that woeful ECM op this morning. If ever there is a model we want to stay on side in situations like this, it's the ECM. If it throws out another poor op this evening then it will be very ominous indeed. It's brilliant when it spots the milder solution at distance.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Langford, Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Langford, Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
Posted

So, winter will be signing off with a rather boring, but pleasant, still and settled high.  

How’s the LRF looking for a warm spring? 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

 Beanz Winter is not done yet. 

i think we'll have a cold shot towards the end of February. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: East Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: snow or warm&dry
  • Location: East Surrey
Posted (edited)

On a more positive note, the ECM AI is great!

The WWA goes in a W-E angle and stays over ScandinaviaIMG_6676.thumb.jpeg.120ba17adec84b848f7f0205c20730a0.jpeg

There’s then a 2nd push of heights, holding off the TPV for longer and the E’ly deepensIMG_6677.thumb.jpeg.71b60cd1e7cf8d06eae6ec902cd3d0bf.jpeg

As a result, the cold uppers stagnate over the UK, with pressure thats’s low enough to bring winters showers across the UK. The west would get some very cold nights from surface cold as welIMG_6678.thumb.jpeg.ed4cbbc310ddb6f9c57822facadd1ded.jpegIMG_6679.thumb.jpeg.546dc2858fe7ec78327b4f124f2c4cca.jpegIMG_6680.thumb.jpeg.7795c0ddaa0b98e466b4a7adbb7620a1.jpeg

Edited by Jacob
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM clusters this morning, T192-T240:

IMG_0110.thumb.png.49fb7a4214b65b5bc7ac3bd2b66d551f.png

I must say, I was expecting worse given the comments this morning.  Cluster 1 (31) is the one containing potential for the easterly, cluster 2 (20) is the flatter solution with the high at lower latitude.  I should caution again that I expect only an unknown fraction of cluster 1 would deliver an easterly, because there will be some spread around that representative member and it wouldn’t take much drift east to kill it.

T264+:

IMG_0112.thumb.png.f5ca86772d68a8b403a4d6d3ea63966d.png

Cluster 1 (16) the Scandi high rather disintegrates and we are left in a westerly flow.  Cluster 2 (14) continues the easterly theme and is cold.  Cluster 3 (12) asserts an Atlantic ridge with a northerly, trough in Europe and is cold.  Cluster 4 (9) looks a bit messy with heights remaining to our northeast.  All have potential apart from cluster 1.

 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2

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