Into February: Forecast and Model Discussion commentary

[minus10]

Okay....just one last look ....

...ahhh..what could have been as modelled back on the 8th...what a ride..!....very unlikely of course as we all know...but nice to look at all the same...now it's back to business as usual according to the anoms...gefs and eps for 24th..

..strong signals for generally south westerlies...driest south east wettest north west...although many have been saying it will be cloudy I am hopeful that...for my area at least a south westerly flow will give some breaks in the cloud at times...and with milder temps it should feel pleasant enough to get out in the garden again...yes the garden...oh how I have missed it...

Meanwhile the cold has returned to  America..(,in more ways than one.)

..but ahhh..what do we have here..

..blues skies...yay...at last I have missed you so much.......

..any wiff of a hint about end of Feb...beginning of March..well ec anoms shows possible height rises further north. ..

..with ens dropping a bit at the end..

...buy a long way off so nothing to get that interested in at present...MJO phase 7 lag effect may come into play if the amplitude is big enough...however looking forward to some reasonable weather hopefully..have a good day and try to enjoy any sunshine...

 

 

 

Edited February 14 by minus10

[thickness line]

Well people its been emotional lol 1 day we  will get our -6 -7 day time maxs and a 25 mph eastley sadly not this year close but no cigar.i feel we may have a week or so of mild all of a sudden evrey think will flip cold once mjo gets factored in its happened before it may happen again.

[XLWeather]

So im new however i remember reading something on Met Office.
That the polar vortex is relating to some highs(mabye)

So this sudden decrease in the polar vortex winds speeds may be the reason we get a small high
Obviously I would hope that the high would then grow having a knock on effect but who knows

[That GFS]

This  has been one of the most sunless winters I can remember, which made it feel a lot colder than it actually was. It was also a winter where most of the heavier snow was reserved for the North. Sure not everyone had it, but here in kent it was terrible!  I've also suffered with ill health and a lot of pain, so this winter can do one!

[bluearmy]

 XLWeather beginning to look on gfs ops that the slowdown in the zonal flow from a displaced spv towards Asian side will cause a flushing down of increased zonal flow to 60N which couples with the tpv and leads to a more mobile flow at our latitude.  That could mean a mid lat ridge for nw europe but it likely means no HLB until late week 3 earliest. 
Eps mean and ec46 both show the displaced spv on the Asian side later week 2 and beyond. For now, it looks like this next slowdown will morph into the final warming this season.  This should mean that once we get towards end week 3 and the flow has flushed through, the trop takes control again and should have no westerly interference from higher up this side of next winter. 

[AO-]

 Met4Cast

Is that possible with uppers of 5-8 degrees and the sun not yet very high? SST have decreased over the past week or 2. Don't you think the models overestimated max temperatures? 

[TEITS]

Maybe I have viewed too many model runs but I am beginning to think Spring may not arrive as early as some suggest. Looks to me as though the milder SW,lys keep getting put back and now we have to wait until the latter part of next week. Maybe the extreme SW of England, Ireland is exempt from this.

Still questionable about Sun/Mon and just how cold it might be across E Areas. I'm not for a minute suggesting a return to E,lys but the mild SW/S,lys are being delayed and replaced with SE,lys until Thurs.

[Nigerian Prince]

 Frosticle Thank you very much, I enjoyed your unbiased output.

[Frosty.]

The death knell to this absolutely pathetic winter is ringing, it’s official, the Atlantic will soon be waking up! we’ve had the usual false dawns, garden paths aplenty, I am actually looking forward to March (spring)… the daffodils will love this chart from the Gfs 6z!. yes! I’m a broken coldie!  

 

[Jordan S]

 TEITS

I'm not sure things have been delayed since yesterday at least.

Wednesday still looks to be where milder conditions make further progress northeast, however there are slight variations on how mild/how far it extends but the usual variations you'll see at day 5, perhaps still rather chilly in some northern/northeastern parts.

ECM AI model below

Wednesday

Thursday

ECM op

GFS..

Rather wet at times later in the week though, more especially further west, so that may effect how mild it actually feels depending on timings of those fronts!. Southeastern parts seeing the best of the drier conditions generally.

[chrisnoy]

Sun came out for first time in 2 weeks this afternoon, 3c , -0.7c dew point, NE wind feels just great out, just missing the heavy snow prospects ... maybe one day it will happen, in meantime it's great it hasn't descended into mild dross already...

Keep watching the models.

[Gowon]

Another interesting chart from the ICON with a stronger block to our east:

Edited February 14 by Gowon

[Scandinavian High.]

 Gowon i don’t think it will be long before next the chase it looks certain we will go mild but for how long i’m expecting pressure rise again NE holding Atlantic at bay.

[SLEETY]

 Frosty. Just  about sums up  UK winters now, any deep cold shown at around 5-6 days like the models did show at the start of the week, remember that Ecm run, rarely ever verify then as soon as a change to much milder weather at  that time timescale is picked up on 99% of the time the milder outcome will verify  like what's happened now. 

Another winter to close the curtains on that failed miserably, with a tepid Easterly that in the 80s or 90s would have caused chaos and disruption to much of the E and SE England. 

[bluearmy]

 Scandinavian High.the modelling is keen to raise a an upper ridge to our east but also to have the jet too strong and flattening it somewhat/ pushing it too far east to affect us. 

of course we could see the jet split somewhat nearer the time which may drive some more interesting options but for now we don’t see much support at all for that type of solution with the Atlantic trough driving w euro upper ridge up to scandi 

Edited February 14 by bluearmy

[Gowon]

There's always something to ruin a good set up  for us.

I was thinking maybe we can get a  shortwave to drop down through Norway to help drag the high further north?

  GFS

[Gowon]

GEM might do it:

[Downburst]

 mulzy for the 4 regimes in use, they are 30 odd that are possible to define for Europe, but ecm use 4 to make the forecast sensible, so 4 that are made up of many. Also very important to see the ensemble mean at the bottom of the bar chart, although means are misleading of course at times.

so for Scandi block if one reads the ecm papers;

+ve Blocking (BLO+) with ridging over Western Europe and Scandinavia:  Spells of wintertime easterly winds bring increased occurrences of very cold and snowy weather to much of Europe while Scandinavia sees very cold, dry and calm conditions

[Gowon]

Nice GEM and the atlantic low barely scrapes us :

 

[Mcconnor8]

Pretty mild uppers for Thursday and Friday next week on the UKMO, potentially cooler into the weekend depending on how the Atlantic trough behaves but we may hold on to the warmth.

Edited February 14 by Mcconnor8

[Gowon]

 Mcconnor8 Nice to have a bit a warmth but I don't want my tender plants to think it's spring yet.

[mulzy]

Let's hope the warmth holds through March and April. The sooner we forget about this pathetic winter, the better! The last semi-decent winter (in London, at least) was 2012/13, with special mention to the BTFE in 2018. These are very, very poor returns over a 12-year period.

[ribster]

 Frosty. On the contrary, it's been brilliant. Mostly cold throughout, grey skies, little bit of snow, lots of frosts. Very different to many a year; no the eye candy charts didn't deliver, but then they are just that...

[blizzard81]

 mulzy I've been incredibly lucky with the previous two cold spells but this one has been sheet for everyone I agree.

[damianslaw]

 blizzard81 Its not over yet, cold weekend ahead and Monday/Tuesday stay cold, yes nothing severe, but a consistent fortnight of general cold.