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Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

 Jacob many of us said days ago that mid month onwards is the time when we could get a proper cold spell as you need the deep cold advected into Europe first, that remains the case

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
Posted

 TEITS that is a very good point that others should take note of........

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

image.thumb.png.5667bdf3bbb76d25e1fe7aab21519ae2.png

image.thumb.png.40ee8109ecdb50d1f1e59d5150b5319e.png

Equally with ECM, huge huge potential

 

image.thumb.png.c238ce7c973244fc54e6ef687b7a4a8a.png

And with GEM, at least we are in the game and something wintry is in touching distance 

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted (edited)

 TEITS Remember what the ensemble pack looked like this time last week, there was basically unanimous agreement on Atlantic dominance for this weekend!

The ensembles can flip just as fast as the operational runs from experience, period of interest remains 16th/17th onwards.

Edited by Mcconnor8
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

 Purga

At 384h that's not really impressive😅. The GEFS looks similar thus far. 

gfs-leeuwarden-knmi-nl-5 (63).jpeg

gfs-leeuwarden-knmi-nl-5 (62).jpeg

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Saddleworth, historically West Yorks, 225m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, AO- said:

At 384h that's not really impressive😅. The GEFS looks similar thus far. 

I suppose the clue is in the definition of the word that Purga used - "tantalising" - meaning to tease etc. it's not the end product you want but suggests something obtainable is being teased at us - as once again HP looks like setting off on another adventure.

image.thumb.png.a46c4cbb1cfc3dcb2598a475c40e28a4.png

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

 Rayth That's been the story of the winter for me. Most of the reliable longer term forecasts have been wide of the mark. Met O have explained these last minute forecast changes and why they happen. Forecasting out of range is a tricky business indeed. For me, I'm not ruling anything out for remainder of Feb

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

 Gowon Faulty run, note the multiple Dartboard lows! Expect it to be different by 12z

Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

 Met4Cast

Totally agree. But we have to keep in mind the projected synoptic evolution. We can argue whether it is good or bad from a coldies perspective.

I'm more frustrated about the conditions on surface level that keep disrupting a good night of frost the next few days. In that respect I completely agree. 

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

Member 27 has the block in the right place in ten days with a sliding jet Southeast. No real cold advection, but it will do😁

GFSP27EU06_240_1.png

GFSP27EU06_240_2.png

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

 That GFS I don't know whether it's a faulty run or not, but you would expect every run to be slightly different, especially in FI?..🙃👍

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

Messy picture with a lot of members going for a win of the Atlantic. Others are going for a Euro high in a worse position than now and that leaves us with more promising options at day 10. 10 members. 

GFSP04EU06_240_1 (5).png

GFSP09EU06_240_1 (2).png

GFSP11EU06_240_1 (2).png

GFSP18EU06_240_1 (2).png

GFSP19EU06_240_1.png

GFSP21EU06_240_1 (2).png

GFSP22EU06_240_1.png

GFSP24EU06_240_1 (1).png

GFSP25EU06_240_1 (1).png

GFSP27EU06_240_1.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Location: Surrey
Posted (edited)

 Met4Cast  Did you watch the Met Office Deep Dive Video yesterday? It was great, and explained how and why each scenario might come about. It is worth a watch if you have not done so.

Edited by It Might Snow
Grammer
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

 Met4Cast Don't be so hasty to dismiss possibility of exceptional warmth in second half of the month. If we end up with a west based set up (a very real possibility) we could easily end up with long draw southerlies. In effect something akin to an early 'Spanish plume'.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted

 Met4Cast 'Anything can happen' is quite apt 'logic' dealing with weather scenario, resting on statistical numeracy isn't infallible, but the point being that even by the MetO own admission the computer models flipped at quite sudden notice, its clear there's an unpredictable atmospheric change going on the NWP hasn't a handle on yet   

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted

 It Might Snow An underestimated 'Low' in Hawaii , leads to easterly winds in the UK

 

Wild 🤣 

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

 Jason M In FI, the GFS 6z control run isn't very far away from the scenario you paint. Not through a west-based NAO but through a Euro High

Edited by LRD
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
Posted

 Cambrian great post 🫡

  • Like 1

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