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Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
Quote

Abstract

Global temperature leaped more than 0.4°C (0.7°F) during the past two years, the 12-month average peaking in August 2024 at +1.6°C relative to the temperature at the beginning of last century (the 1880-1920 average). This temperature jump was spurred by one of the periodic tropical El Niño warming events, but many Earth scientists were baffled by the magnitude of the global warming, which was twice as large as expected for the weak 2023-2024 El Niño. We find that most of the other half of the warming was caused by a restriction on aerosol emissions by ships, which was imposed in 2020 by the International Maritime Organization to combat the effect of aerosol pollutants on human health. Aerosols are small particles that serve as cloud formation nuclei. Their most important effect is to increase the extent and brightness of clouds, which reflect sunlight and have a cooling effect on Earth. When aerosols – and thus clouds – are reduced, Earth is darker and absorbs more sunlight, thus enhancing global warming. Ships are the main aerosol source in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. We quantify the aerosol effect from the geographical distribution of sunlight reflected by Earth as measured by satellites, with the largest expected and observed effects in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. We find that aerosol cooling, and thus climate sensitivity, are understated in the best estimate of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Global warming caused by reduced ship aerosols will not go away as tropical climate moves into its cool La Niña phase. Therefore, we expect that global temperature will not fall much below +1.5°C level, instead oscillating near or above that level for the next few years, which will help confirm our interpretation of the sudden global warming. High sea surface temperatures and increasing ocean hotspots will continue, with harmful effects on coral reefs and other ocean life. The largest practical effect on humans today is increase of the frequency and severity of climate extremes. More powerful tropical storms, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, and thus more extreme floods, are driven by high sea surface temperature and a warmer atmosphere that holds more water vapor. Higher global temperature also increases the intensity of heat waves and – at the times and places of dry weather – high temperature increases drought intensity, including “flash droughts” that develop rapidly, even in regions with adequate average rainfall.

Polar climate change has the greatest long-term effect on humanity, with impacts accelerated by the jump in global temperature. We find that polar ice melt and freshwater injection onto the North Atlantic Ocean exceed prior estimates and, because of accelerated global warming, the melt will increase. As a result, shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely within the next 20-30 years, unless actions are taken to reduce global warming – in contradiction to conclusions of IPCC. If AMOC is allowed to shut down, it will lock in major problems including sea level rise of several meters – thus, we describe AMOC shutdown as the “point of no return.”

We suggest that an alternative perspective – a complement to the IPCC approach – is needed to assess these issues and actions that are needed to avoid handing young people a dire situation that is out of their control. This alternative approach will make more use of ongoing observations to drive modeling and more use of paleoclimate to test modeling and test our understanding. As of today, the threats of AMOC shutdown and sea level rise are poorly understood, but better observations of polar ocean and ice changes in response to the present accelerated global warming have the potential to greatly improve our understanding.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00139157.2025.2434494#abstract

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted

Current SSTs seem to be supporting this theory, as even now during a weak La Nina phase, SSTs are still the second warmest on record and 0.5C above the 1991-2020 average. We're above every year except 2024. The only other year close is 2016 and both of these were deep into El Nino phases.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

The United Nations are both toothless and corrupt. They support Russia in the ongoing conflict, and will have zero say on emissions from Russia, China, USA and others.

Now that the Trump cartel has taken over, climate change is irrelevant. It will become even more irrelevant as Europes far right takes over country after country fuelled by Trillionaire Social Media owners.

The red warnings are there, and mankind society is going helter skelter towards its sorry end.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

 matty40s  reef  knocker The January 2025 overall temperature anomaly is striking as well - another record was set.

WWW.THECLIMATEBRINK.COM

Despite long-faded El Niño conditions, 2025 saw the warmest January on record

image.thumb.png.02a1423f98e1d022e139eec16eda0f3a.png

I think we're in very concerning territory here - at a time when El Nino should be exerting at least a modest negative forcing on global temperatures, we're still well above 1.5C and in fact still setting records.

I was somewhat sceptical whether James Hansen was right given his view was somewhat outside the mainstream on expected trends, but it has to be said he's called things remarkably well so far. The peak of the 12-month average did spike up to above 1.6C, and so far the drop through La Nina has been quite modest.

I think sobering is the word you might use. I dread to think where we will be by 2050 on current geopolitical trends.

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
Posted

 matty40s    Yet, despite all the evidence of accelerating warming, this country continues to impoverish itself in it’s utterly ineffectual and physically useless attempts to reverse it’s >1% contribution to atmospheric CO2 instead of making solid plans and investment to combat the inevitable affects of rising sea levels and the likely future collapse of the AMOC (see this thread started by Knocker… “Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point?”), let alone prepare for more violence in the UK weather.   One day people will look back and realise how we wasted so much time wringing our hands and covering our limited land resources with solar panels when we should have been building and investing.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

That's it, climate change is officially OVER...

 

  • Insightful 1

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