Asteroid YR4 - Potential 2032 Impact ?

[The Tall Weatherman]

A very interesting meteor that I’ve been watching for the last week. It was discovered on the 29th of December by one of the huge Chilean telescopes. It originally had a 1.2% chance of impact and is currently sitting at 1.8-2.5% risk of impact on the 22nd of December 2032. It is roughly 40-100m wide and its impact trajectory is currently across the equator given latest track. A lot of room for change and we won’t be sure till around 2029. So eyes should be kept peeled for updates.

[The Tall Weatherman]

Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact risk updated to 1.8%

WATCHERS.NEWS

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The impact risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032 increased from 1.2% to 1.8% on February 6, 2025, following new trajectory simulations and refined calculations. While the increase remains within a low…

Nuclear weapon could be used to defend Earth from asteroid 2024 YR4, astronomer says

NEWS.SKY.COM

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The measure could be taken to divert a space rock being monitored by the European Space Agency, which is expected to cross the planet's orbit in December 2032.

ESA - ESA actively monitoring near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4

WWW.ESA.INT

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The European Space Agency (ESA) Planetary Defence Office is closely monitoring the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2032. This page was last updated on 29...

Asteroid 2024 YR4 chance of hitting Earth up to 1 in 53

EARTHSKY.ORG

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Risk seems to be rising as certain scenarios are ruled out. Has gone up 1.4% in risk in a few days so it’s sitting at roughly 2.5%. Would not be surprised to see it get to 5% or even 10% and then plummet in 2028.

Edited February 8 by The Tall Weatherman

[WYorksWeather]

Risk has been upgraded to 2.4% today. The margin of error at three standard deviations stands at 765,000km, hence the vast uncertainty. It will take a lot more observations to narrow this down.

In terms of the consequences of an impact, the event would be similar in scale to the Tunguska event of 1908, which is the largest in recorded history. On that occasion an asteroid about 50m in diameter exploded above the surface with some fragments reaching the ground. The impact occurred in a remote area of Siberia so there were few casualties, but over 80 million trees were flattened.

Tunguska event - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[Don Hull]

Will the weather models be adapted to update us on what will be happening? There is going to be a need for a high degree of reliable accuracy in the analysis of unfolding events. 

[WYorksWeather]

Risk hasn't changed much and actually fallen slightly over the past few days, down to 2.1%. Still a broad error margin of 712,000km, with an estimated close approach of 168,000km. We're still a long way from being completely confident it will miss the Earth.

 

[danm]

 

[Fen Wolf]

 The Tall Weatherman i am aware and have been for a little while now.  
looks like it could be the 7 year tribulation period?  Like in the book of revelations as many things have seemed to occur from the book since 2020.  
 

religious people are going to have a field day

 

There is a chance of it hitting yes and causing a mass extinction event potentially but without causing panic it is mostly being kept quiet…. But we shall see what this way comes

Edited February 13 by Fen Wolf

[Fen Wolf]

Interesting times we live in since 2019 

[danm]

2024 YR4: What we know about the asteroid that could hit Earth

NEWS.SKY.COM

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There is an estimated 2.3% chance that the 2024 YR4 asteroid is heading our way. Here's everything you need to know about the space rock - including how much damage it could actually cause.

 

[raz.org.rain]

Semi-relevant but there's a good resource of material that discusses the Chicxulub impact and subsequent accelerated surface warming (global temperatures rose by about 5°c following the impact). Expectations for this meteor to strike earth remain pretty low, and it's more likely that the immediate threat we'd need to be concerned about is a Tunguska-type event over a populated area, but the potential correlation with climate change is interesting too.

[danm]

 

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain Interestingly Imperial College London have a simulator you can play around with.

Earth Impact Effects Program

IMPACT.ESE.IC.AC.UK

I simulated three different impacts - all at a 45 degree angle, typical impact speed of 17km/s for asteroids, and an asteroid made of dense rock.

I varied the size within the estimated range, so from 40m (the low estimate) to 55m (mid estimate) to 90m (high estimate).

In all three simulations I set the distance from the impact to be 50km when looking at impacts on the ground. Let's see what happens to our unfortunate hypothetical person.

Simulation 1: 40m asteroid (low end)

This one results in an air burst at about 10km - the asteroid doesn't make it to the surface as a solid object. The hypothetical person at 50km from the impact site might have their glass windows shattered by the impact, but looks like they'll probably be OK.

Simulation 2: 55m asteroid (medium)

Much the same - air burst a bit lower at 6km. Again, our hypothetical person has shattered windows but is otherwise OK.

Simulation 3: 90m asteroid (high end)

In the higher end scenario, the asteroid would make it to the ground and leave a sizeable crater about a kilometre across. In terms of impacts, at 50km away there is more noticeable damage with a moderate earthquake and again likely shattering of glass windows.

Summary

I think overall we can say that the odds of a major disaster resulting from this are probably quite small. You can see that the impacts are relatively localised, even in the most serious possible case. We can say that no hypothetical people were harmed in these simulations (not seriously, anyway!).

In short, I don't think there's a great deal to worry about. Even in the unlikely event of an impact, it will most likely strike a remote area. Even in the worst case that it were on course for a heavily populated area, we'd have sufficient lead time to evacuate that area, as the next close approach would be in 2028, by which point we should know for definite whether it will hit or not, and probably be able to narrow down exactly where.

I wouldn't like to be any closer than 50km from the impact site (and ideally not that close!) but hopefully this simulation allays any fears about a major catastrophe beyond a very localised level.

 

[WYorksWeather]

Was quiet for a few days with no new observations, but a new update just dropped. Chance of impact has risen to 2.6%, from 2.2%.

In terms of margin of error, the nominal close approach is now 148,000km. The three-sigma error margin (99.7% confidence) stands at +/- 481,000km, which is a big drop from +/- 707,000km in the last update.

Of course if the nominal close approach were to stay at 148,000km, it would miss the Earth. But the chance of impact is still going up, because Earth occupies a larger portion of the remaining possible trajectories.

It will be interesting to see if we can get a resolution of this before 2024 YR4 passes out of observation range for even the largest telescopes. In that case, we'd have to wait until 2028 for a final outcome.

[lassie23]

I hope I won’t be around to witness that

[Vortex3929]

2 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

Chance of impact has risen to 2.6%, from 2.2%.

Thank you for keeping tabs on this. I did try looking on  YT for updates but most hadn't posted the newest figures.  Have we can updated size yet, or still 40-90 meters?

I'm sure it'll miss us.  The 1st lot of info they put out are usually high risk and then diminish over time with new data.  Apophis was similar, high risk to start but now no longer a concern. 

Weird coincidence that they tested crashing a spaceship or satellite into that other rock fairly recently to test if they could deflect its course, and we are now presented with that option as a possible requirement in a few years time!  

Edited February 17 by Vortex3929

[The Tall Weatherman]

It’s a really bad video but I gives a really simple understanding of high-risk to no-risk.

 

Edited February 18 by The Tall Weatherman

[WYorksWeather]

Observations are coming more frequently again it seems. Chance of impact is revised up to 3.1%.

Nominal close approach is now 123,000km, with an 99.7% confidence interval of +/- 458,000km.

That is down from 148,000km and +/- 481,000km respectively in yesterday's update.

[The Tall Weatherman]

In other words the asteroid’s risk has increased 3129% since its first impact forecast of 0.096%. I would imagine a risk of 5% or more would boast the need for an impact aversion mission.

Edited February 18 by The Tall Weatherman

[Methuselah]

It's time to call in Bruce Willis! 

[WYorksWeather]

 The Tall Weatherman I doubt it actually. No mission would ever be sent until we get to near 100% chance. A mission might be prepared, but not actually sent until we have greater confidence. The reason being that if it were more likely to miss than hit, you could nudge it towards an impact trajectory accidentally.

Effectively the uncertainty is in what is called the along track. In other words, we know with great precision where the Earth will be at the time of a possible impact, but we don't know exactly where the asteroid will be, in other words we need to constrain its speed and trajectory more precisely. If we can't get a clear answer by the time it passes out of range this year, we would probably have a mission ready to go for the next approach in 2028, if we need it.

With enough observations the uncertainty gets very small. With Apophis they eventually got the uncertainty down to just a few kilometres.

[The Tall Weatherman]

@WYorksWeather I do agree but we would be stuck in a bit of a conundrum if we couldn’t rule out a 2032 impact in 2028. There is a possibility (very small) that the risk of impact explodes a few days before impact. In that case it would seem like the best thing to do would be to redirect the asteroid if it were on something like 40% before 2032. If this thing was to hit earth and our aversion tactics were not powerful enough we could see a full-scale war on earth arguing about which country the asteroid should be redirected to. This is all very hypothetical. 
 

this is a good vid-

 

[Fen Wolf]

When this asteroid hits hopefully it will sort out & correct our corrupt dark planet and maybe make the world a brighter and happier & less greedy place for all after the dust settles.  
Humanity as a whole may become a better species.  
sometimes u have to get sick to  better

It won’t be a planet killer but it will cause a mass catastrophe if it hits land.  
this song comes to mind

 

 

Things will be put into place so it doesn’t cause a 6th mass extinction event so no need to panic or worry please 

Enjoy the song 

Edited February 19 by Fen Wolf

[The Tall Weatherman]

@Fen Wolf I do actually agree. There are many pros to Asteroid YR4 hitting earth.

I listed them all down from ChatGPT (which is an amazing tool):

1. Scientific Discovery and Technological Advancement

Enhanced Study of Impact Events: The aftermath of such an asteroid strike would provide invaluable data about asteroid impacts, crater formation, and their effects on Earth's geology and atmosphere. This knowledge could improve planetary defense systems.

Accelerated Space Exploration Funding: A real-life impact might prompt governments and private entities to allocate more resources to asteroid detection and mitigation programs, spurring innovation in space technology and exploration.

2. Ecosystem Rejuvenation (Local Scale)

Biodiversity Reset in Impact Zone: Similar to how volcanic eruptions can rejuvenate ecosystems over time, a localized asteroid impact might eventually create opportunities for new ecosystems to emerge in the affected area, though only after the devastation subsides.

Natural Mineral Redistribution: The asteroid and the impacted Earth could release minerals and rare metals from deep within the ground, potentially enriching the local geology.

3. Global Awareness of Planetary Threats

Public Awareness and Unity: A near-miss or minor impact could serve as a wake-up call for humanity to unite over shared planetary defense concerns, fostering global collaboration.

Improved Disaster Preparedness: The lessons learned from dealing with the consequences could lead to better preparedness for other natural disasters.

4. Creation of New Geological Features

Tourism Potential: Over decades or centuries, the impact crater could become a site of interest for geologists, tourists, and researchers, similar to the Barringer Crater in Arizona.

Unique Ecosystems: Crater lakes and other features formed by the impact might support unique ecosystems over time.

5. Boost to Economy (in a Stretch Scenario)

Mining Opportunities: Depending on the composition of the asteroid, it could contain valuable metals like nickel, cobalt, or platinum that could potentially be harvested.

 

[Fen Wolf]

 The Tall Weatherman yes indeed