Severe Weather Event Discussion

[Mondy]

Take a look at Mondy's Traffic Cam's the I20 Kelly-Elliot cam is great for the Supercell in the Distance!!! Is this in the line of fire???

Paul Sherman

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[Guest ChaserUK]

kewl thanks for that - the cell to the S looks very intense now with multiple TVS's, cloud tops of 42,500 feet, DBZ around 72.5 and 83 knots of shear - very impressive indeed!

[Paul Sherman]

Sherman may get sideswiped :lol:

Paul Sherman

[Guest ChaserUK]

Paul, this morning Sherman was my initial target area for today

[Mondy]

yeah! i noticed your surname was mentioned!!

bloody hell, his first storm abroad and he's already got a place named after him

[Paul Sherman]

Lol, Is the a place called Hatton???? I am sure there is, and what about Mondy??

Confirmed Tornado on the ground 435pm at Cedar Hill - Texas

Paul Sherman

Edited April 25, 2005 by Paul Sherman

[Guest Sir Seany]

Lol, Is the a place called Hatton???? I am sure there is, and what about Mondy??

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Scroll down these links, should i mention there is a P. Sherman, at 42 Wallaby Way, Sydney

Sherman

Hatton

Mondy

Interesting thread guys, good to see some nice storms brewing (brewed) in the states, im going back to my tornado book tonight

Sean :lol:

Edited April 25, 2005 by Sir Seany

[Paul Sherman]

I don;t know how you come up with em Seany??? But hey 8 Shermans in the USA And 2 are in our Storm chase area, Texas and Kansas, don;t think we will get a Hatton, North Dakota and Alabama??

Better get back on topic now :lol:

Paul Sherman

[Ryan M]

Looks like Mother Nature is setting up a treat for you guys when you land. Storms already looking quite ferocious from those satellite. I sure wish I could go but when exams call, they call i'm afraid but anyhow enjoy yourself and post lots of footage :lol:

[Stuart]

link matey - have you got a link!

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no

Edited April 26, 2005 by Stuart Harvey

[Mondy]

no

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Just noticed this!

What do you mean "no"?

Don't you have a link or the link i provided wasn't there? :blink:

[Guest ChaserUK]

POTENTIAL severe weather outbreak tomorrow guys with a MOD risk already posted. With the chance of SIGNIFICANT tornadoes, this risk will more than likely be high tomorrow:

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA/NV AND THE SECOND

APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES ATTM...ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE FROM THE

UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER TN VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A BROAD

AND STRONG /70+ KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SRN

STREAM TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER OH/LOWER TN

VALLEYS BY 30/00Z. GIVEN THE BREADTH OF THIS MID-LEVEL JET...50+ KT

WSWLY WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM SRN TX TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES

DURING MUCH OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. 12Z NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE MID

LEVEL TROUGH AND FARTHER S WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN ITS PREVIOUS

RUNS...AND MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC TIMING OF THIS

STORM SYSTEM.

A SURFACE LOW AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER

NORTH CENTRAL TX AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THIS LOW DEEPENING AS IT

TRACKS NEWD PER STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PHASING MID LEVEL

TROUGHS. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AR BY 30/00Z AND INTO

CENTRAL OH BY 12Z SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEWD

FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY

STATIONARY. NAM SUGGESTS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/ SECONDARY

WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY FROM CENTRAL AR EWD ALONG THE SRN TN

BORDER.

...OZARKS TO ARKLATEX AND EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST

STATES...

THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT

THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN OK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MO/SWRN

AR AS A RESULT OF WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY LLJ. THIS

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION

ALONG THE NRN WARM FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY

DEEP LAYER ASCENT/WAA AS THE LLJ TRANSLATES EWD TO THE LOWER MS

VALLEY AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH

MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL JET WILL BE FROM NRN

TX TO THE OH VALLEY...A SRN STREAM JET APPEARS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS

THE LOWER MS VALLEY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO

DEFINE THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FOR THE FORMATION OF THE

SECOND WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND DRY

LINE TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL AR BY 30/00Z

WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE

TO RETURN NWD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING

WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500+ J/KG/ ACROSS

THE MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-60 KT/ WILL BE

FAVORABLY ORIENTED FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

TORNADOES AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA ALONG

AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.

THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO

CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND

CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY

THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT.

...OH VALLEY REGION...

12Z NAM SUGGESTS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE

LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SRN IND/WRN KY PROMOTING AREAS OF MODERATE

INSTABILITY BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE

SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.

...ERN TX...

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF ERN TX WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET

AND THUS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONG

SURFACE HEATING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY MID-LATE

FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND

MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT HAIL

LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.

[the_white_stuff]

when do you fly out chaser?

[Guest ChaserUK]

next Saturday. Will be in DFW 14:30, clear airport by 1530, on the road chasing by 1630.

[the_white_stuff]

Not long now then, lucky bugger <_< !!

[kold weather]

Hi chaser mate,not been paying much attnetion to the synoptics over their recently,however i'm going to be paying more attnetion now and keeping watch more often.

Certainly must be a experiance for you to see those large powerful storms just growing as you head down the highway's and small roads,i suppose a escape route is VITAL!

[Guest ChaserUK]

indeed KW hence why we have Delorme SA2004 plus GPS mapping as well as Barons Satellite Radar system! If all else fails, stuff it, get out the vehicle and get in a ditch - with camera rolling of course.

[Thunder]

i soooo wish i was going with u mate... man it sux having to work

[Guest ChaserUK]

Yes today is setting up for a severe weather outbreak, read the latest Public Weather Statement below and discuss here. I will bring the latest graphics of cells shortly.

Public Severe Weather Outlook

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL

WOUS40 KWNS 291558

ALZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-300000-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1058 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

VALID 291558Z - 300000Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE

DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS

OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHERN ALABAMA

EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS

NORTHERN LOUISIANA

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND

ALABAMA

COMBINATION OF FAST WESTERLY FLOW...INFLUX OF MOIST UNSTABLE GULF

AIR MASS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE A RISK

OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE

OUTLOOK REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON EASTWARD

ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A THREAT OF

LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A SECOND ROUND

OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

WILL FORM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS

SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK

EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING

WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER

SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER

RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 04/29/2005

[Guest ChaserUK]

OK guys. Some models are coming together and from what I can gather there will be a real return of moisture from the Gulf Friday/ Saturday with a possible dryline set up in TX!! Yes, so if all goes well it will be a case of getting off the plane, hire the vehicle and then off to chase some severe weather. Further updates to follow.

[stevestorms]

ukstorm team (stevestorms/James/Pete) are leaving on the 5th arrival in DFW around 14:30 TX TIME thats 20:30 I think for you guys at home :lol: hiring a car and driving North to Norman Oklahoma to pick up our Baron System :lol: at the moment it looks like we wont be going that far on Friday looking at the Panhandles which will be a 3 hour drive which aint bad for Chasing in the states!

I wish all you guys left at home some great Tstorms here inthe UK while we are away and I hope that Chaser and myself can bring you back some great shots of this years chase.

All the best Matt and Paul and anyone else from the UK chasing in the USA this year chase hard and stay safe.

Steve.

[Snow_Fan_Man]

Jesus, i really can't wait until i can go storm chasing! I hope you guys do this again next year, because i know i will definately come!

[Guest ChaserUK]

Cheers Steve - I am sure we will meet up next week or maybe at the weekend - I get the impression every chaser out there will be converging in the same areas this year. Just hope this February like pattern get's shoved out the way soon!!!!

[Guest ChaserUK]

things do look like they will indeed pick up - severe weather outlook from enhanced NWS webpage.

[Paul Sherman]

That looks fantastic Matt!!! Have had a look on the SPC Site as well and everything is pointing to a return of moisture. Friday has Capes in excess of 2500 and dewpoints in the 60's

Paul Sherman