Severe Weather Event Discussion

[Andy Bown]

Is this the stage where some of our pictures from recently get whipped out of sight in the 'awesome' stakes

[BrickFielder]

A few more Links to get in the mood.

StormGasm Discussion Forum

StormTrack Discussion

Storm2K local Forecast discussions

VortexTimes Links

Chase One

Mid West Chasers

Forecast Models forecasts satelite

Cyclone Road

Tornadoes Kick

Links with Local TV forecasts

[Guest ChaserUK]

thanks for that Stu and Brickfielder - very much appreciated! This is now my last message before arriving at the hotel tonight. if I cannot get online there I will post whilst waiting for the plane tomorrow.

If not, we will report on arrival at DFW.

Bye Bye for Now!!!!

Chaser and Team

[Mad Murdoch]

good luck guys..

hope the waether brings you all that you want!!!!!!!

keep safe.

kelly.f

[PB22]

Have a safe trip guys!

[Kent Snow]

Safe flight chaps.

[stevestorms]

Good Morning from Norman Oklahoma, we arrived yesterday 14:30 in FWT but by the time we had cleared customs got the car and driven 3hours to Norman it was nearly 20:00hrs we met Dave Edwolt (really nice chap) and slung down several beers by the time we got to bed we had been awake for some 27hours and we were pooped! Anyway can confirm that yesterday temps were well down in the 60s quite chilly really but this morning the warm moist flow is returning to the Southern plains and it is getting really warm even at 0930 this morning we were getting sun burned! so as Matt and Paul know the set up from this weekend is looking sweet so today we are rechecking cameras and video and recovering from the trip over which is quite nice really.

will update again when thins kick off

[Paul R]

Wishing you the very best luck on your storm chase and I hope you see a lovely big tornado.

[kold weather]

Good luck Chaser and Paul as well as everyone out there at the moment and going!!!!!

hope you all have a good time chasing out there,going to watch things kick off with radar and satitlite,sure bet you are all excited!

[Nick F]

Looks good on the Plains for some thunderstorms today ahead of the cold front straddling the rockies from the interaction of the warm air pumping up from the Gulf and cold air aloft from an upper-level disturbance moving east from the Rockies:

Perhaps a 20% chance in any location in Oklahoma of seeing a T-storm. A slight risk of severe T-storms, more particularly further North in the Dakotas, with even better chances tomorrow and Monday elsewhere.

[Nick F]

Some overnight severe thunderstorms in Texas looking at the severe weather charts below. Looks an interesting day ahead later for the N-W chase team across Texas:

Edited May 8, 2005 by nick finnis

[kold weather]

Hi nick,looks like a fairly potent storm there as it happens,with tops reaching about 52000 feet in that region which is very impressive indeed with could tops as cold as -75C and is a potent looking system that is giving some heavy downpours,moving eastwards/north-eastwards,could be a intresting target for Matt and Paul and the others to go for:

Moist air now working into texas as well with dry air pushing eastwards.

south-western Texas looks a good bet for the next 2 hours or so for me,some good levels off Helicity present upwards towards 450,CINH is very low and so good levels off cape as well.

for today in general,your 'gang' should be pretty well placed,cape is close to 3000 and that good plue coming up from the gulf should help keep temps and dew points high,looks like a intresting day today for you two out there!

Edited May 8, 2005 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Well it's only 05.55 am in Texas so I doubt the boys are up yet, but there are storms not far away from them to the south and to the east of them.

This warning is from www.wunderground.com for South Central Texas for the next few hours

Discussion... a few severe thunderstorms/supercells expected to

persist over S cntrl TX this morning as large scale ascent

strengthens with continued ewd motion of srn stream disturbance now

over SW nm. Coupled with increasingly rich boundary layer moisture

inflow up the Rio Grande vly... and steep mid level lapse

rates... setup may support large hail and possibly damaging wind

despite presence of cap in the 800-750 mb layer.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft

to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55

knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm

motion vector 23030.

[Guest ChaserUK]

Peter and I got up about 6 this morning and been looking at the charts. To be honest we are thinking OKC for today based on this from Norman NWS office..

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ACROSS

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL

MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM

COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND IN CENTRAL

TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST INTO EAST TEXAS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM

THESE STORMS IS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS

THIS MORNING....BUT SHOULD THIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO

TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY... PUSHING A DRYLINE FROM THE

EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN

NORTH TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG

THE DRYLINE WILL INITIALLY BE SUPPRESSED BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA

THIS MORNING...BUT DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO

ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE

BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM.

INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE

SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEGREE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

LATE TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF THE

THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN

WIDESPREAD... AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER LINGERS OVER OKLAHOMA

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... BOTH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURN OF DEEPER

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HINDERED. THIS WILL KEEP THE INSTABILITY

AT MODERATE LEVELS AND LIMIT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...

IF THE STORMS IN TEXAS AND THE CLOUD COVER OVER OKLAHOMA MOVE OFF TO

THE EAST....SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER SOUTH

TEXAS COULD MOVE NORTH INTO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HEATING...WOULD CREATE

GREATER INSTABILITY AND WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO

THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[kold weather]

Hi Chaser,I have to agree although i do think the far north off Texas where you are now is also pretty good,but OK is just as good though and they both have equal chance.

i'll be watching the radar whatever direction you lot chose,i presume you lot can see the line off strong T-storms to your south/south-east at present?

Edited May 8, 2005 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Plenty of activity early this morning on the radar moving NE to the south of you around Dallas/Ft Worth now heading into NE Texas, but I guess it would be great to see some T-storms develop further NW this afternoon from the dry line moving East from New Mexico/Colorado into OK and NW TX - rather than heading SE into all that mess of heavy rain and scattered T-storms in E Texas where visibility and driving conditions may be poor. Much better I suppose to see them build rather than mature or possibly decaying overnight storm activity to the SE and E - still you may have to wait 'till late afternoon for the action to kick off but I'm sure it'll will be worth seeing the build up over the Plains.

[kold weather]

Storms slowly weakening now in eastern Texas at present,upper cloud looks to strecth right the way over to northen Texas but the main area of actvity at present is to the south off Texas,certainly not worth chasing and better to watch if any storms start to brew over OK and N.Texas in the next few hours.Whatever happens I don't think they will need to drive more then 1-200 Km's today to see some actvity.

hopefully they will see some actvity today,I certainly think they ahve a good chance and showers should start to brew in the next few hours,although things won't really get going over here until later tonight.

Here's a satilite image off the disturbance,notice the new cells forming to its south at present,looks like a large Multi-cell system(possible Meso convective system??) with growing cells to its southern side and dying mature cells and their anvils to the main mass off clouds:

what do you lot think about it,it does look to be getting weaker overall,but its still by far the most intresting thing in terms off convection...at the moment!!

southern cells looking strong at the moment,some heavy rain coming from it and cloud tops reaching 46000 feet,easily visable on the satilite above,its the far south-west cell.

Edited May 8, 2005 by kold weather

[Mandy Langlands]

This is what the met office had to say:

Thunderstorms strike south-east Texas

09 May 2005

A series of severe thunderstorms hit Texas, USA yesterday, bringing heavy rain, hail and high winds and causing spot flooding and power outages.

Most of south-east Texas - including Harris, Brazoria, Galveston and Fort Bend counties - was affected, as hailstones up to 1.75 inches in diameter lashed the state.

Spot floods necessitated the rescue of several motorists from rising water near Interstate 10 and Beltway 8, Post Oak Boulevard and West Loop, Chimney Rock and U.S. 59, according to the Houston Fire Department.

A spokeswoman for Centerpoint Energy said that about 183,000 customers lost power as a result of the storms, with some areas still without electricity this morning.

Sustained winds were measured at between 35 and 50 miles per hour, with some gusts reaching 60 miles per hour.

A National Weather Service spokeswoman said that the west and north-west areas of Houston saw as much as 3.5 inches of rain.

A tug in the Houston Ship Channel is believed to have sunk as a result of the weather. Every crew member was saved when high waves caused the boat to capsize near the Bolivar Ferry Landing.

The thunderstorms are expected to continue today.

© DeHavilland Information Services plc

Taken from Met Office web site.

[mac]

urgent - immediate broadcast requested

Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 240

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

325 PM CDT Mon may 9 2005

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

Central Texas

Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 900

PM CDT.

Hail to 4 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70

mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 80

statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of

Waco Texas to 70 miles south southeast of Junction Texas. For a

complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline

update (wous64 kwns wou0).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are

favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.

Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening

weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible

warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce

tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 239...

Discussion... explosive thunderstorm development is now occurring

over TX Hill Country within broad field of cumulus which developed

during the past hour or so. Air mass is extremely unstable with

sbcapes in excess of 4000 j/kg( ). Strong mixing and lift along

outflow from initial storm may be sufficient for further rapid

thunderstorm development over central TX where capping has been

eroded. Shear is modest... yet still sufficient... for slow moving

supercells given the amount of instability. Primary threat will be

from very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft

to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60

knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm

motion vector 28015.

... Evans

;320,0961 293,0975 293,1004 320,0990

[Gorky]

I just noticed this on the SPC website too. Looks like a monster supercell. I hope soemones close by to document it (But not too close with baseball size hail

[BrickFielder]

Looks like South West Nebraska and North West Kansas along the I-80 corridor might be good again today.

Heres a couple of thumbnails of Mike HolingsHead's pictures from the Grand Island SuperCell you saw for the rest of us.

StormTrack discussion picture source

[SteveB]

Those are two awsome pictures, words probably could not describe how I would feel if I actually saw that with my own eyes.

[BrickFielder]

SPC goes for north Texas, Western Oklahoma and South East Kansas. Strongest Cape looks to be in north Texas mid afternoon. Low level Helicity looks best in Texas but depp helicity looks better in Oklahoma. 700mb Vertical Velocities look best in north Texas. JetStream position shows an on coming long wave trough which should be a region of PVA. Right Entrance to a Jetstreak is in the area and is forecast to move north but is closest to north Texas.500mb vertical velocities look best in south west Kansas.850mb vertical velocities look strongest in northe Texas.Dewpoints of 60 and temperatures of 80 look good. Cinh lokks strong in north texas and weakest in Western Oklahoma.

With a possibility of a cap in Texas further north might be better although things look like being a bit cluttered.

Woodward and down to roger mills looks good in Oklahoma or over to poncha city.