Cat 5 Hurricane Katrina

[rixxxgolf]

Last hour shows a good track jolt to the west...

[SnowBear]

Well, this one I think is going to surprise us all and any forecast on track is going to be, for now at least, a wild guess!! Landfall could be anywhere, from TX to FL.

Here is mine, Cat 4-5 on landfall.

[rixxxgolf]

your up for a new orleans full frontal then.

[SnowBear]

Yes, its moving too quickly west I think for a turn back to FL, or even maybe AL, lets hope I am wrong about New Orleans/Baton Rouge, cos anywhere this one makes landfall, and with the increased time its going to have in the Gulf to draw strength, its going to make a real mess. Cat 4-5. Who knows, these things can turn around in an hour and back track and surprise us all. This one is slightly lower in latitude crossing FL than the previous Hurricanes that hit the FL panhandle, and more momentum westwards I feel.

Revising my estimate, east TX - AL, Cat 4 - 5, landfall position, same as before.

[rixxxgolf]

http://www.wkrg.com/servlet/Satellite?page...d=1031784688695

that made me laugh - do they seriously think they'll miss serious damage?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Strong Catagory 4 ...

[billythesquid]

the 10pm advisory still has it moving in a southwest direction. is this going to

[rixxxgolf]

Indeed - most odd, but it's right really as the moisture source is below it, until the moisture is to the west or NW and the upper winds shift southerly, it's happy to continue the way it is.

[rixxxgolf]

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

945!!! proper potential.

[billythesquid]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

pressure still falling

[londonsnow]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

pressure still falling

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

according to various news sources there is a lot of panic in louisiana. If new orleans is hit katrina will certainly go down in history as one of the worst of all time. if i lived on the coast of alabama or louisiana i'd have packed my truck and gone by now

[clv101]

This could be very serious.

Katrina Grows To Cat. 3 Storm, Targets Gulf States

..."There is nothing out there to slow it down," Local 6 meteorologist Michele Cimino said. "There are no waters to churn it up, no lands to slow it down, so what is going to happen is it will continue to build as it makes that turn."...Local 6 meteorologists Michele Cimino and Tom Sorrells said the storm could grow even stronger than a Category 4 storm if it remains in the Gulf. "Now we are talking about a very dangerous Category 4 storm," Sorrells said. "It could become the nastiest thing in the Gulf of Mexico since Camille in the 60s. This is a bad storm."

--More--

Here's the latest map:

Updates available here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...5105.shtml?5day

So why is this so serious? Well, take a look at this map of oil rigs off the Louisiana coast:

http://www.rodnreel.com/gps/semisub.asp

And this map of Louisiana's refineries:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/state/la.html

The oil price could go through the roof when the market opens on Monday.

[londonsnow]

too true. could be very serious indeed

[londonsnow]

too true. could be very serious indeed

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ps and to think that when this thread started katrina was a farily inocuous tropical storm

[rixxxgolf]

I think a bigger fact is that this monster has already struck MAINLAND U.S.A!

I think though they'll be a violent shift to the NW sooner than we think.

Edited August 27, 2005 by rixxxgolf

[Mondy]

Couple of snippets relating to New Orleans:

http://www.sciamdigital.com/browse.cfm?ITE...enameCHAR=itemP

http://www.sciencentral.com/articles/view....le_id=218391951

[rixxxgolf]

It's fair to say New Orleans is now in real frontal threat territory. But it's a hurricane, and they cannot be trusted to behave to templates of movement.

Edited August 27, 2005 by rixxxgolf

[londonsnow]

It's fair to say New Orleans is now in real frontal threat territory. But it's a hurricane, and they cannot be trusted to behave to templates of movement.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'd be interested to hear input from anyone who knows what factors determine the direction hurricanes take.

[Mondy]

CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF

OF MEXICO...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THE PAST FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF

LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...

INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN

THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE

DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 230

MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND

KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150

MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY

REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD

SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES

OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH

INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY

EVENING.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 85.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[SnowBear]

well, as I understand it, many factors determine the path, sea temp, surrounding highs and lows, land masses, earths spin, moisture feeds, jet streams, and much more, a very complicated array of factors. Way I look at it, take a child's spinning top toy, and try to determine the path it will take once it is set spinning on slightly uneven ground, pretty much impossible. I dont think we will ever get completely accurate with these things, too many variables, just when we think we have got the hang of forecasting them fairly accurately, one or two will come along and cause mayhem and just wont conform to what we know or expect. Accuracy is improving though, and more time being given to evacuate etc, which is the main thing. Sometimes, that accuracy in my view, is down to plain old intuition and "gut feeling" especially when the computer modelling cant handle the path it is taking.

[londonsnow]

well, as I understand it, many factors determine the path, sea temp, surrounding highs and lows, land masses, earths spin, moisture feeds, jet streams, and much more, a very complicated array of factors. Way I look at it, take a child's spinning top toy, and try to determine the path it will take once it is set spinning on slightly uneven ground, pretty much impossible. I dont think we will ever get completely accurate with these things, too many variables, just when we think we have got the hang of forecasting them fairly accurately, one or two will come along and cause mayhem and just wont conform to what we know or expect. Accuracy is improving though, and more time being given to evacuate etc, which is the main thing. Sometimes, that accuracy in my view, is down to plain old intuition and "gut feeling" especially when the computer modelling cant handle the path it is taking.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

so basically, its in the lap of the gods

[rixxxgolf]

Mother Nature for us non-believers lol.

[londonsnow]

Mother Nature for us non-believers lol.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i see it's starting to make TV news over here

[Mondy]

Yup, for those not inclined to make smart remarks about something pretty nasty, highlighted detail below:

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...

AS WELL AS THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...SHOW THAT KATRINA IS STILL IN A

CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL 9 N MI WIDE AND THE

OUTER 45-50 N MI WIDE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN AS HIGH AS

950 MB...WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB. THE AIRCRAFT

HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE

OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA STEPPED

FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SUGGEST THE SURFACE WINDS IN THIS

AREA ARE STILL LESS THAN 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS

AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/6. KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER

RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO

WEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL

UNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD

CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE

LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN

AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE LED

AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS

SHIFT IS NOT UNANIMOUS...HOWEVER...AS THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE

EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE

TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN

CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRS 24-36 HR AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF

THAT CLUSTER THEREAFTER. THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST

LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR.

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT COMES OUT OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL

CYCLE. THE GFDL IS NOW CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 131 KT...

WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS CALLING FOR 130 KT AND THE FSU

SUPERENSEMBLE 128 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR

STRENGTHENING TO 125 KT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE

THAT KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BEFORE

LANDFALL. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONCENTRIC

EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH COULD THROW OFF THE INTENSITY

FORECAST A BIT.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR

AND EXPANDED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PARTS

OF THE WATCH AREA.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 24.6N 85.6W 100 KT

12HR VT 28/0600Z 24.9N 86.8W 105 KT

24HR VT 28/1800Z 25.8N 88.3W 115 KT

36HR VT 29/0600Z 27.5N 89.6W 120 KT

48HR VT 29/1800Z 29.6N 90.0W 125 KT

72HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W 60 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 31/1800Z 38.5N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 01/1800Z 43.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[londonsnow]

Yup, for those not inclined to make smart remarks about something pretty nasty, highlighted detail below:

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...

AS WELL AS THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...SHOW THAT KATRINA IS STILL IN A

CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL 9 N MI WIDE AND THE

OUTER 45-50 N MI WIDE.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN AS HIGH AS

950 MB...WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB.  THE AIRCRAFT

HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE

OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA STEPPED

FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SUGGEST THE SURFACE WINDS IN THIS

AREA ARE STILL LESS THAN 100 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS

AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/6.  KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER

RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO

WEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL

UNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD

CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE

LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN

AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE LED

AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.  THIS

SHIFT IS NOT UNANIMOUS...HOWEVER...AS THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE

EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE

TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN

CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRS 24-36 HR AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF

THAT CLUSTER THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST

LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR.

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT COMES OUT OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL

CYCLE.  THE GFDL IS NOW CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 131 KT...

WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS CALLING FOR 130 KT AND THE FSU

SUPERENSEMBLE 128 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR

STRENGTHENING TO 125 KT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE

THAT KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BEFORE

LANDFALL. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONCENTRIC

EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH COULD THROW OFF THE INTENSITY

FORECAST A BIT.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR

AND EXPANDED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PARTS

OF THE WATCH AREA.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/2100Z 24.6N  85.6W  100 KT

12HR VT    28/0600Z 24.9N  86.8W  105 KT

24HR VT    28/1800Z 25.8N  88.3W  115 KT

36HR VT    29/0600Z 27.5N  89.6W  120 KT

48HR VT    29/1800Z 29.6N  90.0W  125 KT

72HR VT    30/1800Z 34.0N  89.0W    60 KT...INLAND

96HR VT    31/1800Z 38.5N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND

120HR VT    01/1800Z 43.0N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

who's been making smart remarks out of interest? i think we all know this is a potentially devastating hurricane