Cat 5 Hurricane Katrina

[Carl]

as it heads into ever warmer water

What effect does hitting ~30’ waters near land have on a storm of this nature?

I've been watching one of the local streams and they're reporting very warm waters near land.

Won't this intensify the storm further?

Carl

[londonsnow]

For more floater images click on the links under "Emily"; not been updated to Katrina yet, but definetly frightening loops of Katrina http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/floaters.html

908mb now Just what are the chances of sub 900??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

sub 900 is possible. the waters around new orleans are some of the warmest in the gulf. the official noaa update is due out any moment.

[Mondy]

KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE

HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST

FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA

BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO

PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM

EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM

WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH

MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA

EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY

LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 185 MILES.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 908 MB...26.81 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS

BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE

CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF

COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING OVER

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND

OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.7 N... 87.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 908 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

Special advisory

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF

KATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 153 KNOTS...WHICH

CORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 140 KNOTS.

OBVIOUSLY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG KATRINA WILL BE AT

LANDFALL. WE HAVE VERY LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING THIS.

FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE

LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...KATRINA IS

EXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT

LANDFALL.

NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

Edited August 28, 2005 by Mondy

[summer blizzard]

At 908mb, Hurricane Katrina is the second strongest hurricane on record.

[londonsnow]

At 908mb, Hurricane Katrina is the second strongest hurricane on record.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

its the strongest "named" hurricane in history

[Mondy]

Silly question time, but discarding the longer-term disadvantages of doing so for a moment what, if any, effects would setting off a very powerful H-bomb at altitude have on a hurricane?!

[kold weather]

Strongest named hurricane ever was Gilbert,with central pressure at 888mbs,1935 storm had pressure of 892mbs.

[londonsnow]

Strongest named hurricane ever was Gilbert,with central pressure at 888mbs,1935 storm had pressure of 892mbs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

oh ok, didnt realise gilbert had such a low pressure

[Stuart]

it a cat 5 now

[Mondy]

Mandatory evacuations now ongoing: TV

[londonsnow]

it a cat 5 now

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

katrina has recently strengthened further. unconfirmed reports from new orleans advisory suggest core pressure has dropped below 900mb

[Mondy]

Keep on eye on readings from this moored buoy - 42035 -should see dramatic increases in wind speed and wave height soon. Unless it folds..

[Wayneywoo]

There she is.....

[Mondy]

Storm surge simulation, New Orleans:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/new_orleans.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh2.gif

Edited August 28, 2005 by Mondy

[SxK]

Well what can we say boys and girls, this Hurricane is looking the real deal. I was in Florida about this time last year and rode out Hurricane Frances - that's looking rather insignificant in comparison to this bad boy.

It has reached Cat 5 now and further strengthening looks likely, I could see this landing at 170mph. The prospects for New Orleans are desperate, a direct hit with those wind speeds will devastate the city. Not only this but N'O' sits in a basin and is extremely vunerable to the storm surge. Reports suggest the storm surge to be between 15-20feet but I feel with further strengthening it will be nearer to 30ft, potentially flooding the entire city. The drop in pressure is most worrying - it must be noted that last year Hurricane Ivan produced 90feet waves in the open ocean once it reached Cat 5. I would expect that Katrina is producing similar if not bigger waves right now. Of course the shelf off the coast will reduce the wave height as the storm heads towards land but the wave height will be a concern when it is factored in with the storm surge. Right now I would love to be in New Orleans - but I am extremely concerned about the 100000 or so who are expected to try and ride this storm out!! If that many stay the death toll could be several hundred. This is a very dangerous storm and people need to acknowledge this.

Is this going to be worse than Hurricane Andrew??? I have no doubt this will be far more serious.

Keep watching folks.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I dont know much about american houses etc but wont there be practically no city left with those type of winds? I mean wont all the houses be flat and scattered every where ... and maybe other bigger buildings too - what about the storms shelters?

[SxK]

I dont know much about american houses etc but wont there be practically no city left with those type of winds? I mean wont all the houses be flat and scattered every where ... and maybe other bigger buildings too - what about the storms shelters?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

American Houses are generally built of wood - they are not as solid as English houses... if people are sensible they will listen to the local authorities and move to the storm shelters which are normally schools. These are brick build and much safer.

[Kain]

Oh god..your just know this is going to cause loss of life..

Kain

[*Stormforce~beka*]

American Houses are generally built of wood - they are not as solid as English houses... if people are sensible they will listen to the local authorities and move to the storm shelters which are normally schools. These are brick build and much safer.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But how much can brick buildings take?? Does anoyone know out of curiosity ...

[Mondy]

Good insight about New Orleans: http://www.weather.com/newscenter/specialr...neworleans.html

EDIT: Quote "The city lies, on average, 6 feet below sea level."

Edited August 28, 2005 by Mondy

[Kain]

Hmm is it me, ot does it have individual vorticies? you can just make them out in the eye wall

Kain

[billythesquid]

Amanditory evacuation order has been issued by the mayor of New Orleans for the first time in the city's history.

[Paranoid]

I can only see the eye on there.

Just been watching CNN and Fox News to get some information on it. I was dead wrong, i never thought it would reach cat 5, especially with this intensity. If the eye wall gets close to New Orleans, i think we can say bye bye.

If this strengthens to 170mph as was mentioned earlier, then wouldn't this be one of the most powerful Hurricanes to hit the U.S? I know of three other cat 5 hurricanes that hit the U.S (i'm not sure about Gilbert though) There was the Labour Day hurricane, Camille and Ivan. Ivan packed winds similar to this, but an 8m storm surge? I don't remember anything like that. If New Orleans does get hit, it might be under 10m of water (a rough guess, the 8m storm surge and the additional depth of the land N.O is built on.)

[SnowBear]

For information, the measured world wind speed record currently stands at 231mph recorded at Mount Washington Observatory.

http://www.mountwashington.org/bigwind/

This was nearly broken by Typhoon Paka in Guam 1997, Mount Washington's record still stands.

With Katrina still having the potential to build in strength, will this record be broken.

[Mondy]

I honestly don't think the wind speed will be broken. If anything a super-typhoon is the closest kind of system to reach those speeds.

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm

The link above details Hurricane Camille and it's destruction, Katrina, i fear, is much worse.

EDIT: Gusts of 196mph now being recorded -

Edited August 28, 2005 by Mondy