Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

You've guessed it, there's always one website or team of weather experts that warn us of a cold or colder winter ahead and surprisingly this time it is the Met Office. The headline reads in this mornings Sunday Telegraph front page of 'Bitterly Cold with heavy snow and power blackouts', it goes on to read "forecasters are predicting unusually low temperatures and greater than average snowfall from December to the end of January" and sent out official warning to utility firms (gas and heating).

A Met Office spokesman said it was too early to predict exact temperatures for this winter but they were expected to be "significantly colder than average". "Considering we have had a run of fairly mild winters, we issue the warning to energy companies as there was a concern they might get caught out with their current supplies" he said.

As mentioned quite surprised this time it is the Met Office that has taken up the mantle of the Cold weather LRF this winter, maybe it's just a case of a 'colder one has to come our way sooner or later, going by sods law'.

It will be interesting to see if their seasonal forecasts back this up now or in the months to come - personally I will be very surprised if they are largely correct and this winter 'bucks the trend'.

Edited September 18, 2005 by Timmy H

[johnholmes]

I'm surprised that you have been taken in by this S T article. No one, to the best of my knowledge in the Met Office, has said anything whatever about snow. There was an item which the media, naturally enough picked up, about some kind of preliminary warning to transport and energy agencies about temperatures.

What you should do is wait for the Met Office to release what it ACTUALLY said to the agencies.

regards

John

ps

also see other thread about the same thing.

Edited September 18, 2005 by johnholmes

[boro_dave]

I read the article, basically all the met office are saying is IF we get a colder than average winter then there may be a problem in terms of an energy supply shortfall, however at NO point did it mention the met office PREDICTING a colder than average winter. All they were doing was warning the energy suppliers not to be lured into a false sense of security after all the recent mild winters.

For what its worth, I think this winter will be overall a mild one, with occasional northerly/easterly outbreaks bringing fairly widespread snowfall lasting for a day or two. This is likely to happen about once a month, twice at best.

[Methuselah]

In the mean time - as we already have a thread running on this very subject - I am going to close this partular one... :unsure: B)

[Rich_T]

their was an article in the gaurdian talking about the Severe winter that we are alegedly going to expect this year, and about long range weather forcasting, see link below:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1573815,00.html

[shuggee]

Thanks Rich - enjoyed reading that. Even for a 'serious' newspaper to discuss such a complex issue that would basically entail taking a Masters Degree over 4 years full time, to understand - it was a good effort!

[SteveB]

That made a very interesting read.

[The Eagle]

That made a very interesting read.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I dont understand. In the article he refers to government funded meteorlogical forcasters making cautious forcasts and therefore sensible ones but surley that does not fit his argument well because the met office are a government funded meteorlogical service! :lol: I do agree with him though about the ecentrics

[icy toes]

Interesting article in The Times today about the problems faced by energy suppliers if we get a cold winter this year

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1819000,00.html

[johnholmes]

and some on this forum would like the Gulf Stream to shut down.

I shudder to think what a really serious winter might be like.

brings back memories of 1947 when coal could not be moved from the pit heads by either road or rail for several weeks. Now, if the gas runs out, how many have any heating, some still have coal/coke, a good many have oil, some have electric. to some extent all are reliant on the gas flowing as required.

Cold in short spells, yes, but not prolongued thank you very much.

regards

John

Edited October 10, 2005 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

Of course if Winters do get harsher expect price rises to discourage access use. I can see double Glazing and insulation companies do well. If the Meto is wrong someones balls will be getting squeezed even if it is unjust.

[Optimus Prime]

Of course if Winters do get harsher expect price rises to discourage access use. I can see double Glazing and insulation companies do well. If the Meto is wrong someones balls will be getting squeezed even if it is unjust.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But the Meto never said it would be a cold winter. They just said the Coldest since 1995/1996. When in fact 1995/1996 wasn't really a cold winter. it was on the cool side but not notably cold.

If we end up with a slightly mild/average winter it will still mean the coldest since 1995/1996. There hasn't even been a winter of 0.1c colder then average since then!

[yido]

I'm not sure if this may have been mentioned somewhere else but it was very interesting to hear a small comment made by John Craven on Countryfile. He was talking about the devestating effects that a tiny worm has had on the grouse population on the North York Moors. On speaking to a Game Keeper he blamed it on the succession of mild winters not killing off the paracite.

At this point dubbed over the interview John said, 'well the long range forecast issued by the METOffice at the moment is for a very cold winter so that should help this year'.

Just a small comment but I would be extremely surprised if the editors of the programme had not looked into that info very seriously. I can't believe they would be making such a comment purely based on media hysteria. It makes you think what they really may believe?

[johnholmes]

I'm not sure if this may have been mentioned somewhere else but it was very interesting to hear a small comment made by John Craven on Countryfile. He was talking about the devestating effects that a tiny worm has had on the grouse population on the North York Moors. On speaking to a Game Keeper he blamed it on the succession of mild winters not killing off the paracite.

At this point dubbed over the interview John said, 'well the long range forecast issued by the METOffice at the moment is for a very cold winter so that should help this year'.

Just a small comment but I would be extremely surprised if the editors of the programme had not looked into that info very seriously. I can't believe they would be making such a comment purely based on media hysteria. It makes you think what they really may believe?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yet another misquote, just read what the Met Office actually printed in their press release. The BBC along with ITV have, over the years, sometimes said things which are quite far from the actual release by any Met Office staff as I know to my cost.

this the bit that has everyone wound up,

'If this holds true, parts of the UK — especially southern regions — are expected to have temperatures below normal.'

j

regards

John

Edited October 10, 2005 by johnholmes

[yido]

yet another misquote, just read what the Met Office actually printed in their press release. The BBC along with ITV have, over the years, sometimes said things which are quite far from the actual release by any Met Office staff as I know to my cost.

this the bit that has everyone wound up,

'If this holds true, parts of the UK — especially southern regions — are expected to have temperatures below normal.'

j

regards

John

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is exactly what I mean. I can not believe that an editor would release such a quote without it being a direct quote. Do you really believe that the BBC would mis-represent a quote from a web site? What I am saying is this would surely be a direct quote from the Met office to the editor.

I'm sure you have plently of evidence to say they would John but it would surprise me.

[The Enforcer]

'If this holds true, parts of the UK — especially southern regions — are expected to have temperatures below normal.'

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

All that means is where the average is 4.5C, this winter might be 4.4C.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

What was the winter 1996/97 like? I thought that was near or below average, certainly colder than average here, infact January 1997 was the last time we saw an Ice day in these parts - the way things are going at the mo with rising SST's and warmer continents and a melting North Pole I doubt we will see a '63 or a 79' in my life time, so a 95/96 will do me fine!

Edited October 10, 2005 by Timmy H

[Kiwi]

All that means is where the average is 4.5C, this winter might be 4.4C.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

True, but haven't the last 10 or so winters had above well average temps?

A return to the norm will thus be a shock to the system.

[Weather-history]

But the Meto never said it would be a cold winter. They just said the Coldest since 1995/1996. When in fact 1995/1996 wasn't really a cold winter. it was on the cool side but not notably cold.

If we end up with a slightly mild/average winter it will still mean the coldest since 1995/1996. There hasn't even been a winter of 0.1c colder then average since then!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

0.5C colder than winter 1986-87

1995/96 wasn't that cold overall but it had some notable cold spells including one of the coldest spells on record, the last week of December 1995.

And there was some severe disruption, with the Shetlands badly affected by Christmas blizzards, parts of SW Scotland brought to a standstill early Feb 1996 the M25 chaos of early Dec 95, the power cuts of late Jan 1996, the freezing rain event down south just before New Year.

So even this winter caused chaos and disruption.

[The Enforcer]

and some on this forum would like the Gulf Stream to shut down.

I shudder to think what a really serious winter might be like.

brings back memories of 1947 when coal could not be moved from the pit heads by either road or rail for several weeks. Now, if the gas runs out, how many have any heating, some still have coal/coke, a good many have oil, some have electric. to some extent all are reliant on the gas flowing as required.

Cold in short spells, yes, but not prolongued thank you very much.

regards

John

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The obvious answer is to have your own power/heating source. I'm surprised in this day and age that this country hasn't become more self-sufficient. I guess it's to do with Mr Fatcat keeping control over the population.

As a side point, what a mess the national grid has made of the UK countryside. National Parks, AONBs, Green Belts - nowhere is sacred. They even invade residential areas. We could do with some of those ice storms they had in Canada a few years ago that destroyed their network. Hopefully they'll then put the grid underground and start setting up more sustainable forms of electricity supply.

Edited October 10, 2005 by The Enforcer

[The PIT]

But the Meto never said it would be a cold winter. They just said the Coldest since 1995/1996. When in fact 1995/1996 wasn't really a cold winter. it was on the cool side but not notably cold.

If we end up with a slightly mild/average winter it will still mean the coldest since 1995/1996. There hasn't even been a winter of 0.1c colder then average since then!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Colder than average and if it turns out to be another mild one the media will have a field day and take them to the cleaners. Also one or two heads of companies will be slightly non plussed. It's only a warning and not set in concrete hence the word unjust in my post.

[Anti-Mild]

We could do with some of those ice storms they had in Canada a few years ago that destroyed their network. Hopefully they'll then put the grid underground and start setting up more sustainable forms of electricity supply.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's a little extreme isn't it? To be honest I barely even notice pylons, they've just always been there.

As to the effects a severe winter would have on our infrastructure; I wouldn't like to imagine! If a couple of inches can shut a motorway down what would a couple of feet do? What would happen to our country if we experienced a cold spell similar to that fom January 1987? It would precipitate a nationwide disaster. We have been conditioned over the last 10-15 years to believe that 5c is cold; if we are (un)lucky enough to have a run of, say, 6 or 7 ice days, maybe we will have to re-evaluate our perception.

On the other hand, it may be just another even larger teapot season. We'll all find out in a few months.

[johnholmes]

All that means is where the average is 4.5C, this winter might be 4.4C.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

no one is disputing that

[johnholmes]

That is exactly what I mean. I can not believe that an editor would release such a quote without it being a direct quote. Do you really believe that the BBC would mis-represent a quote from a web site? What I am saying is this would surely be a direct quote from the Met office to the editor.

I'm sure you have plently of evidence to say they would John but it would surprise me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

it is possible that as we write the Met O have complained to the BBC about misquoting them, it will have zilch effect if they have. Its a BBC programme and they can more or less say what they like.

[Rollo]

That's a little extreme isn't it? To be honest I barely even notice pylons, they've just always been there.

As to the effects a severe winter would have on our infrastructure; I wouldn't like to imagine! If a couple of inches can shut a motorway down what would a couple of feet do? What would happen to our country if we experienced a cold spell similar to that fom January 1987? It would precipitate a nationwide disaster. We have been conditioned over the last 10-15 years to believe that 5c is cold; if we are (un)lucky enough to have a run of, say, 6 or 7 ice days, maybe we will have to re-evaluate our perception.

On the other hand, it may be just another even larger teapot season. We'll all find out in a few months.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have to disagree with regards to the pylons AM, one might get used to them as they seem to have been around for ever but IMO they are really an eyesore and have spoiled some lovely countryside. As regards the Met office,they really are on a hiding to nothing,unless it pans out as they say then a mild winter sees them in trouble as does a 62/63 winter. I suppose it would have been better if a long range forecast had been left to Metcheck et al.