Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph

[Optimus Prime]

0.5C colder than winter 1986-87

1995/96 wasn't that  cold overall but it had some notable cold spells including one of the coldest spells on record, the last week of December 1995.

And there was some severe disruption, with the Shetlands badly affected by Christmas blizzards, parts of SW Scotland brought to a standstill early Feb 1996  the M25 chaos of early Dec 95, the power cuts of late Jan 1996, the freezing rain event down south just before New Year.

So even this winter caused chaos and disruption.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Admittedly, looking at the CET figures from December 1995 to December 1996 there were some cold months. Both Decembers of 1995 and 1996 were much colder than average. February 1996 was pretty cold to. But January 1996 was 0.1c above average.

Surprised that it was colder then 1986/1987. I calculated 1986 Decembers CET, January 1987 CET, February and march-Divided it by 4 (Ended up as 3.675) (Hope I’m right) did the same with 1995/1996 and surprisingly 1995/1996 was 0.2c colder at 3.4c during Dec-Mar.

[reef]

Admittedly, looking at the CET figures from December 1995 to December 1996 there were some cold months. Both Decembers of 1995 and 1996 were much colder than average. February 1996 was pretty cold to. But January 1996 was 0.1c above average.

Surprised that it was colder then 1986/1987. I calculated 1986 Decembers CET, January 1987 CET, February and march-Divided it by 4 (Ended up as 3.675) (Hope I’m right) did the same with 1995/1996 and surprisingly 1995/1996 was 0.2c colder at 3.4c during Dec-Mar.

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Winter CETs are calculated using December, January and February figures. The main reason that 1986/87 was milder than 1995/96 is due to a very mild December 1986 (CET 6.2°C). January 1987 on the other hand was quite severe (CET 0.8°C). 1995/96 had a cold December and February, but a slightly above average January, so came out 0.50°C colder.

[Big Bear]

Sky News have apparently run a section on TV today regarding this:

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13449143,00.html

[kold weather]

Ah,well it was going to get to the T.V media eventually wasn't it I suppose,esp now the threat of power problems if we have a cold winter has been said,the press are just going to jump on it as the press loves weather stories with hardship!

they are right though to get the warning out to the media,even if the winte rdoes turn out to be another mild one and they get eggs in thier faces.you can't blame them for at least warning people agaisnt the possiblty of a cold one.

[Optimus Prime]

so because we get a cold winter everyone dies off? That's how they seem to interpret it.

If we can't survive a cold winter then how did we ever survive the winters of 1991 and 1987? The most recent years with a very cold month.

Simple, we could get a winter like 1917, 1947, 1955, 1963 and even worse and we would be ok. Their making a big deal out of nothing.

As usual.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Although theres a lot of hype in the story, the first paragraph seems to not sound that bad and quite realistic. The worst winter in a decade? Surely thats not too bad, but still worth a warning type story.

[Damien]

The worst winter in a decade?

But listen again, SnowmanReturns!:

Britain has not had a particularly cold winter for ten years, but some experts believe that temperatures over the coming months could plummet as low as the winters of the 1970s.

Which is also what Hudson said, and what MetO Ireland alluded to.

Certainly there is some interesting yet very much questionable early consensus of something this winter not to just top the mid-1990s, but the mid-1980s. However, in spite of who's saying it, I won't believe it until I see the snow fall with my very own eyes. A 1995/96 winter is just about plausible, but a 1978/79 (so that's snow depths of some 1 metre? ) I just cannot honestly see happening this year of any, what given recent years. If we had just come out of a succession of 1995/96s, like in the 1980s, then I would perhaps agree with it, as we saw in mid-January 1987.

This all said, remember the North York Moors late last February/early March? That was quite deep for the 2000s so far....

[Schnee]

Aahhh, no-one will probably believe the media anyhow

Should be interesting seeing what unfolds

[The PIT]

so because we get a cold winter everyone dies off? That's how they seem to interpret it.

If we can't survive a cold winter then how did we ever survive the winters of 1991 and 1987? The most recent years with a very cold month.

Simple, we could get a winter like 1917, 1947, 1955, 1963 and even worse and we would be ok. Their making a big deal out of nothing.

As usual.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well there was a lot less demand on the grid than there is now. It's also quite likely the the power system isn't up to scratch as well due to cut backs etc. In a few places the the electricity is up to max so any extra loading and fizz out go your lights.

If we have a really cold Winter and with most people no longer used to even slight cold the demand will rocket. I'd expect a lot of long power cuts. We get two to three a year now which last three to four hours each time. Any Powercuts in bad snow would probably last days and engineers would probably have to be flown in from elsewhere due to staffing cuts. This has happened already in recent Winters.

Driving well the roads would simply stop until people get used to driving in such weather again.

The elderly would be worst hit as many would be unable to afford the heating and as prices rise this group will get more and more vunerable.

[nigelonline]

From BT Yahoo news:

"Weather experts fear Britain will be gripped by the coldest winter for a decade - and it could endanger energy supplies.The Met Office has put the energy industry, the NHS and the Government on high alert.There even are concerns the nation could run out of fuel - gas supplies are much lower than elsewhere in Europe.

The Times says the government will hold an emergency meeting of industry and energy company leaders next month.

Sir Digby Jones, director general of the CBI, said: "If we have a cold winter, we are going to throw the switch: businesses will shut down."

The National Grid has reportedly formulated emergency plans to ensure supply is maintained to homeowners.

Manufacturers and other large gas consumers will be required to shut down factories on particularly cold days."

[The Eagle]

From BT Yahoo news:

"Weather experts fear Britain will be gripped by the coldest winter for a decade - and it could endanger energy supplies.The Met Office has put the energy industry, the NHS and the Government on high alert.There even are concerns the nation could run out of fuel - gas supplies are much lower than elsewhere in Europe.

The Times says the government will hold an emergency meeting of industry and energy company leaders next month.

Sir Digby Jones, director general of the CBI, said: "If we have a cold winter, we are going to throw the switch: businesses will shut down."

The National Grid has reportedly formulated emergency plans to ensure supply is maintained to homeowners.

Manufacturers and other large gas consumers will be required to shut down factories on particularly cold days."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is all partial hype, whilst there are good signs this could well be another comical error of decision by the media

[leaskovski]

Looks like someone has been ramping to the goverment!

[shuggee]

Just popping this across to the Media/Internet Section.

[Paul R]

It was like this last year, a load of media hype to scare pensioners. Mind you, I did think it was serious at one point last December - I had to leave the heating on overnight just to keep my house at a comfortable temperature, that was the extent of the cold during Winter 2004.

[shuggee]

The Times, despite many people's opinions on its ownership is a newspaper within the UK media circus - so this is being moved to our very own media circus too.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

OK. Before we get too over worked about the winter.

As far as i'm aware, the METO have released an 'amber' alert, not a high alert/warning.

And Damien...I mentioned the first paragraph of the report. If the news station want to contradict their own repports, thats up to them.

[kaz]

Hi What makes everyone think we are in for a cold winter? And if these reports are unfounded when or if it does really happen no one is going to take a blind bit of notice. My god we struggle to get the weather right from week to week let alone months ahead. But i know how these types of reports scare the elderly, which cause more damage than anything else.

lol kaz xx

[I can't believe it's not better]

Well there was a lot less demand on the grid than there is now. It's also quite likely the the power system isn't up to scratch as well due to cut backs etc. In a few places the the electricity is up to max so any extra loading and fizz out go your lights.

If we have a really cold Winter and with most people no longer used to even slight cold the demand will rocket. I'd expect a lot of long power cuts. We get two to three a year now which last three to four hours each time. Any Powercuts in bad snow would probably last days and engineers would probably have to be flown in from elsewhere due to staffing cuts. This has happened already in recent Winters.

Driving well the roads would simply stop until people get used to driving in such weather again.

The elderly would be worst hit as many would be unable to afford the heating and as prices rise this group will get more and more vunerable.

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[The Enforcer]

I have to disagree with  regards to the pylons AM, one might get used to them as they seem to have been around for ever but IMO they are really an eyesore and have spoiled some lovely countryside.

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Is anyone on here old enough to remember when they started putting them up? Surely there must have been outrage at the time?

[The PIT]

I agree with you mate, the winter of '95/'96 up here was very, very cold and I don't remember any power problems whatsoever!! It's similar to the misconcpetion that high oil prices=high fuel prices. I don't remember exceptionally low fuel prices in 1998 when oil could be bought for $10 a barrel. Typical panic mongering by the media!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Roughtly 56p per litre in 1996.

[The Enforcer]

But weren't there a lot of mild winters in the 1970's? The 1980's were colder on average?

[The PIT]

But weren't there a lot of mild winters in the 1970's? The 1980's were colder on average?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yup it wasn't til 76/77 that it started getting more interesting. Thyen after 87 it started getting generally boring again.

[Marcus_surfer]

Winter is coming ...

[Gray-Wolf]

When folk talk of the past in a 'we did it then, why can't we do it now' kinda way seem to be overlooking the BIG changes in society over the last 15yrs. Do you live in a community or just amongst people? Old folk are ever more vulnerable in this rapidly evolving insular society. If some novice plonk has blocked the highway because of their inexperienced 'winter driving' effort and you cannot travel the 30mls to check on your 'oldies' will someone else??

Once upon a long time ago (30 yrs +) we used to 'police' ourselves in our local communities, now we sit back and let 'those paid to do it' get on with it. It's the same with social care it would seem "it's the job of the social services" someone else will do it mentality, well , will they? It doesn't take long for you to go hypothermic and have yer kidneys pack in (check 'cause of death ' in the elderly over winter and you'll not find 'froze to death' in there but I bet you'll find plenty of secondary hypothermia symptoms will be there) even in mild winters. If we get an 'early 80's winter with the odd week below zero, daylight hours, people will die.

[TG312274]

Maybe people should look after others more though. I mean how difficult is it to pop around to someone round the corner and ask how they're keeping?