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Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Groan..........Hardly special is it Coldest since 1995?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

exactly my thoughts...

another mild winter then ;)

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

Evening!, Sorry if this has been risen earlier/elsewhere but i saw a few hour ago on BBC news 24 an article scrolling along the bottom stating "Experts are predicting an unusually much colder winter ahead" ? and certain words pertaining to the forecasted coming season as being unusually much colder!

I was querying if anyone else had spotted this? and indeed what, if any?, evidence was available to back it up? and from whom this was based on etc.?

I have searched throughout BBC24`s online interactive library for a pick-up on this and not found anything relating or ANY explanation?

Is it therefore, merely the sad BBC`s annual and forever puzzling scaremongering for the fateless Ice fans amongst us?

(Forgive for seeming a little excited but having spent some time in a certain middle eastern country for a while seeing nothing but blue sky and 50' degsC+, then allow me a little interest in our seemingly eventless repetitive weather - which is nothing but in comparison to certain geographical points on earth!)

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Posted
  • Location: Mackworth, Derby. 94m/308.4 ft ASL
  • Location: Mackworth, Derby. 94m/308.4 ft ASL

Yet again I feel the press are blowing this all out of proportion and trying to create panick among the general public. However I will add that at least some of thier facts are correct.

Read this and make your own mind up. there are also some other articles to be read on the links.

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_brit...ticle321425.ece

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Yet again I feel the press are blowing this all out of proportion and trying to create panick among the general public. However I will add that at least some of thier facts are correct.

Read this and make your own mind up. there are also some other articles to be read on the links.

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_brit...ticle321425.ece

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's bloody stupid isn't it? The opening two paragraphs read thus:

"Britain could be left paralysed by energy shortages, a health crisis and gridlock on the roads if the predicted Arctic winter strikes with severity.

Prolonged sub-zero temperatures after nearly a decade of mild winters could result in the death of tens of thousands of people ..."

Absolutely bloody silly ...

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I know for a fact that whilst I was still connected with Local Authorites then year on year 'budget cuts' were the expected norm and road salt was an easy thing to 'trim' from the budget. Since the 'trimming' started around the time of our 'milding' over winter we rarely get to see the results of these cuts. One winter like the early 80's and we shall discover just how 'trimmed' these budgets became in the intervening years.

The last time we experienced a 'normal winter' I didn't have the care concerns of a 'special needs' child and these warnings do trouble me (to the point of working out a plan b,c, and d!)

Many 'young adults' today do not know a normal winter and as such only time will tell how they cope with the added rigors it presents. :)

EDIT West is best, what would your conservative estimates be for winter deaths in the elderly that can be attributed to hypothermia (remember that in the same way we do not wish to present ourselves as the 'suicide' capital of Europe and so if no note explicitly mentioning taking ones own life is found then the coroner is instructed to record 'accidental death' however obvious the suicide then 'hypothermia' is never recorded as cause of death at home but kidney/heart failure are and as you know these happen in the latter stages of hypothermia i.e. the moment you die from it?) I am interested in the world that you occupy as , at times, I deeply envy it of you. :)

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: St. Albans, Herts
  • Location: St. Albans, Herts
"Britain could be left paralysed by energy shortages, a health crisis and gridlock on the roads if the predicted Arctic winter strikes with severity.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Where's Stratos Ferric when we need him? I think that paragraph alone is worthy of upping the SATSIGS alert level by at least two notches :):)

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Not to mention the privatisation of road maintenance. There have already been instances up here of A Trunk Roads not being properly treated - and crazy examples of the inherent inefficiencies of councils still retaining responsibility for side roads - which have to be accessed off the main roads - which they won't grit themselves. Etc etc etc...

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

Where are the cold temperatures going to come from?

Temperatures remain above average for Siberia, the Arctic and Scandinavia.

Also...this years' active hurricane season is not helping the projected scenario of easterly blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I don't know who these "forecasters" are, predicting a 67% chance of one of the coldest winters on record. If they exist, they aren't the Met Office.

Even saying "the Met Office say it will be the coldest winter of the century" would make more sense!

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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines

I am surprised Brian Gaze is buying all this stuff. :) I personally won't believe it until I see it, and refuse to prepare for a winter on par with 1962/93 or 1739/40.

At times like this I am glad he forecast 2001/02 like he did - now I know not to go on with "media" forecasts like this, and be bluntly disappointed in the aftermath. :)

I don't know who these "forecasters" are, predicting a 67% chance of one of the coldest winters on record.  If they exist, they aren't the Met Office.

Even saying "the Met Office say it will be the coldest winter of the century" would make more sense!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're quite right, TWS! I think we should all remember this:

"We have to be careful not to be too dramatic, 62-63 was a particularly cold winter. We are probably looking at winters going back to 95-96 which was colder" - Ewan McCallum, Head of Forecasting at the Met Office.

I would be grateful if someone could regurgitate this on TWO to calm everybody down. John P?

A 1995/96 winter would be a dream come true for me. To claim a 1962/63 repeat is just outright proposterous. I won't believe this until I hear it come from Ewan McCallum's mouth.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Where are the cold temperatures going to come from?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What's the temp of the pole right now? Last Jan we basked in air up from 13 degrees n why not the other way 'round? :)

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Many 'young adults' today do not know a normal winter

There are three winters I remember as significant, I'm 23 years old, and ave always lived, bar one or two years this century, in or around the S.Wales Valleys.

First was when I was a toddler. I would assume 83-85 somewhere.

Second when I was a young kid. I would assume anywhere between 88-90

The third didn't snow, but I remember that with wind chill the temperature dropped to -14 where I lived (on top of a small hill above a valley), and it had rained previously and during. The pavements and roads(not so much the roads though) were COMPLETELY covered with ice that was 1-2 inches thick and I fell over numerous times trying to walk uphill to the shop. When was this? 96?

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Posted
  • Location: Mackworth, Derby. 94m/308.4 ft ASL
  • Location: Mackworth, Derby. 94m/308.4 ft ASL
This comes from a broadsheet newspaper as well, and normally well respected.

Not only that but it was a full front page spread,continuing on page 2, very eye catching and thought provoking.

When reputable spreads like the Independent start printing this stuff on a Saturday slap bang on the front page, you can bet your bottom dollar that those who had previously passed this coming winters prediction off as a media hype, may well be beginning to think a bit more serously about the implications it brings.

I have to say personally, I am wondering when the panic buying of tins, water and gas heaters will start.

All of you with means to heat a home with either wood/coal or calor gas will be in a damn site better position than the majority of us in our "new" gas/electric ones.

Like myself and my kids!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Mackworth, Derby. 94m/308.4 ft ASL
  • Location: Mackworth, Derby. 94m/308.4 ft ASL
SATSIGS 5?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Right thats the 4th time I've seen this , what does it stand for please?

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Posted
  • Location: Mackworth, Derby. 94m/308.4 ft ASL
  • Location: Mackworth, Derby. 94m/308.4 ft ASL

Ahh yes i read that a while ago when it was posted, very funny and very apt. well done SF.

cheers

crimsone

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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines
This comes from a broadsheet newspaper as well, and normally well respected.

It really is starting to get ludicrous.

Hence my new signature.

A reminder of THE authority of THE authority on how this winter is likely to turn out. If it's another 1995/96 he says, then it's another 1995/96 we may get, and nothing more beyond. :)

Think about it realistically:

1995/96 - satisfying and fewer deaths,

1962/63 - chaotic and many deaths.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I suspect that if we got another repeat of 1962/3 I think we'd need another level of SATSIGS,one thats never been hit before on this board.

but I do agree with you to a certain extent Damien,A repeat of 1962/3,while being very intresting for the first 2 weeks would eventually lose its sparkle,I'm sure alot of us here would become mild rampers by the end of the third month of intense cold,with many dying of cold,esp the elderly and gas problems.

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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines
I suspect that if we got another repeat of 1962/3 I think we'd need another level of SATSIGS,one thats never been hit before on this board.

but I do agree with you to a certain extent Damien,A repeat of 1962/3,while being very intresting for the first 2 weeks would eventually lose its sparkle,I'm sure alot of us here would become mild rampers by the end of the third month of intense cold,with many dying of cold,esp the elderly and gas problems.

And then remember it fondly in later repetitively mild years. <_<

You can't win really in this game, can you? But I'd take a 1962/63 over a 2001/02 any day - though I in fact regret doing so back then so unquestioningly. <_<

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Mayor of London Ken Livingstone warned that London and the South-east could face the worst winter since 1962-63, when Britain was frozen from Boxing Day until April with an average temperature of 0.2C (32.3F).

Well that info in the Indy is wrong, March 1963 wasn't a frozen month as made out there, it was actually close to average.

Some of these stories are really becoming absolutely sensationalistic and silly now. There are going to be some eggs on people's faces if it goes awry.

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk

Its driving me mad all this talk of coldest winter since blah blah....IMHO the only reason the met office have made their statement as they have is because of the potential problems with gas/oil supplies. They just need to make sure the power companies are prepared and its all been blown out of proportion, I love the cold, and come january my ramp will be miles long, but im also a realist and given the trends of the 'even larger teapot' i know damn well that if we see 2inches of snow lying for longer than 12 hours it will be special.

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