Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph

[crimsone]

Its driving me mad all this talk of coldest winter since blah blah....IMHO the only reason the met office have made their statement as they have is because of the potential problems with gas/oil supplies. They just need to make sure the power companies are prepared and its all been blown out of proportion, I love the cold, and come january my ramp will be miles long, but im also a realist and given the trends of the 'even larger teapot' i know damn well that if we see 2inches of snow lying for longer than 12 hours it will be special.

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Unless of course you happen to live in Kent. Then it'll be mild <_<

[pinball wizard]

Unless of course you happen to live in Kent. Then it'll be mild

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????

[Coopsy]

????

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi guys

Well here in Canada the 'experts' are predicting a winter milder than those in a while so not sure what effect that has on the UK with relation to weather systems etc

Hopefully it is good news for you guys

Rich

[crimsone]

I live with a housmate wjho moved from kent about 2 years ago, and has family there. apparently in kent there seems to be lying snow almost every winter these days, so while 2 inches for 12 hours would be rare for most of us, it would be a mild winter in Kent.

Personally, I live about 3-4 miles from the coast as the crow flies, and about 500M above it with a view of the low-lying land all the way to the bristol channel.

Last year (or the year before?) during the period where it seemed that the whole country had been blanketed by snow for a little while, we didn't get a thing. Swansea 18 miles to my left had snow, and even Stormy Down 2 miles to my right had it, but none here at all (well, about three flakes two days later, which promptly melted as they toughed the floor)

Edited October 22, 2005 by crimsone

[Damien]

Well, I'm looking through this morning's Sunday Telegraph, and arcticle there is not.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I don't know who these "forecasters" are, predicting a 67% chance of one of the coldest winters on record.  If they exist, they aren't the Met Office.

Even saying "the Met Office say it will be the coldest winter of the century" would make more sense!

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Hi TWS.

I thinks its the medias interpretation again

I think that the METO gave a 2 in 3 chance of it being a colder winter, so the Ind. obviously have played around with the words.

It like last winter repeating itself

There was also a few minutes on Sky News yesterday with one of their forecasters about the hype for this winter. Needless to say, it wasnt much of a watch.

[Methuselah]

Aye guys. But if it's stolen-the-march on some other less-scrupulous of Internet weather sites???

I suspect that if the Meto hadn't come-forward when it did, He Who Cannot Be Named would be confidently predicting The Coldest Winter of The Century, and be being paid for TV appearances???

Am I being cynical?

[i luv snow]

they talk about having the first full blown bed shortage since Labour came to power, we have one EVERY WINTER here in Ipswich at the hospital

[derbyshire_lad]

this is amazing if it does come of spirit of 1740 posted this on uk weatherworld what would happen to the uk if it did come of we would have some serious chaos.

Article due in The Sunday Telegraph will apparently say that there is now a 50% probability that this winter will be colder than 1947 and 1963 - and by implication the coldest since 1740.

I hope the next upate say a 50% probability of being coldest since 1684 and then the next update much colder than 1684.

[flagpole]

yeah right! whatever!

[J10]

I am going to merge this thread with the "Independent" cold forecast thread.

[derbyshire_lad]

well just remember Flagpole the weather is very unpredictable anything can happen.

another article here as well.

Livingstone warns of coldest season since 1963

By Michael McCarthy and James Burleigh

Published: 22 October 2005

Predictions of a freezing winter have been based on a weather phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the difference in atmospheric pressure between the Azores and Iceland.

When pressure is low over Iceland and high over the Azores, westerly winds sweep across the Atlantic and give Britain a warm and wet winter. But if Iceland's pressure rises and that of the Azores dips, we catch cold air from the Continent.

Over the past 54 years, scientists have observed that when the NAO was in a particular state in May, a very cold winter often followed in Britain. A high-pressure system tended to block the prevailing warm moist airflow from the west, allowing cold air from the north and east to cover the country.

The Met Office spotted signs of the NAO pattern in May, when areas of unusually cool water appeared in several places in the Atlantic - these kinds of sea temperatures are thought to contribute to the NAO effect.

Richard Graham, from the Met Office's seasonal forecasting unit, said: "We get the sign of the NAO correct in two years out of three, and it has worked for more than 50 years of data."

Ewen McCallum, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said there is the potential for long periodsof up to two weeks "where the temperature may not rise much above freezing".

Mayor of London Ken Livingstone warned that London and the South-east could face the worst winter since 1962-63, when Britain was frozen from Boxing Day until April with an average temperature of 0.2C (32.3F). He said: "We could see quite severe loss of life."

Predictions of a freezing winter have been based on a weather phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the difference in atmospheric pressure between the Azores and Iceland.

When pressure is low over Iceland and high over the Azores, westerly winds sweep across the Atlantic and give Britain a warm and wet winter. But if Iceland's pressure rises and that of the Azores dips, we catch cold air from the Continent.

Over the past 54 years, scientists have observed that when the NAO was in a particular state in May, a very cold winter often followed in Britain. A high-pressure system tended to block the prevailing warm moist airflow from the west, allowing cold air from the north and east to cover the country.

The Met Office spotted signs of the NAO pattern in May, when areas of unusually cool water appeared in several places in the Atlantic - these kinds of sea temperatures are thought to contribute to the NAO effect.

Richard Graham, from the Met Office's seasonal forecasting unit, said: "We get the sign of the NAO correct in two years out of three, and it has worked for more than 50 years of data."

Ewen McCallum, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said there is the potential for long periodsof up to two weeks "where the temperature may not rise much above freezing".

Mayor of London Ken Livingstone warned that London and the South-east could face the worst winter since 1962-63, when Britain was frozen from Boxing Day until April with an average temperature of 0.2C (32.3F). He said: "We could see quite severe loss of life."

and flagpole if your going to say something at least state you points as to why it might not happen not come out with a coment like whatever.

[Yellowbelly]

SATSIGS scale can't cope.....over to you Stratos

[snowmadchrisuk]

Sky News is reporting to day that 8 penioners will die every hour though out this winter. A total of at least 20.000 people before march! the warning has originated from the age concern charity who apparantly has recieved advice from officials at the met office! and say that this winter will be alot more harsh then usual! as the warnings only just come out today maybe it's a sign of how the met office winter update will go.

chris

Edited October 24, 2005 by snowmadchrisuk

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi Chris.

Do you have any links?

[snowmadchrisuk]

Hi Chris.

Do you have any links?

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will check now I actually watched it on the tv channel so will check there website :huh:

[Nabraxas]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/20102005/140/wrap...winter-way.html

Not Sky News but another report which has gone a little over the top in my opinion.

"A dramatically cold winter could put thousands of lives at risk.

For every degree the mercury drops below the winter average, 8,000 people could die in the UK, according to energy supplier npower."

Yes, true, a 'dramatically' cold winter would put thousands of lives at risk, but who said it's going to be an ice age?

[snowmadchrisuk]

cant find the link on sky news~ but just found one on bbcnews 24

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4371096.stm

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi Ash,

Of course, a little ramping there, but i'm sure I remember a farily recent winter (prob. in the 90's), where quite a few pensioners were unfortunately caught up in the cold vs. energy costs.

I think it would be a worry if we were to get a particular 'colder' type winter, that with the increase in energy costs, it could, and I mean could, create another terrible scenario.

However, there is a fine line between warning and scare-mongering.

[Joy in Cornwall]

This goes from the sublime to the rediculous.

What criteria are they using for this one? 5 pensioners per 0.5c below average perhaps. Maybe they could create an age/illness index, which we could all use in conjunction with the forecast.

Then you never know, a few enterprising firms may wish to offer a spread bet.

8 perishing pensioners pr hr x 24 = 192 192 x 31 days in Jan = 5952

There you go: 5900 to sell - 6000 to buy, where's yer money.

Madness, utter madness! :huh:

Joy

[snowmadchrisuk]

hi ash ... long time no see~ if you do a search on sky news and just type in winter in the search box then there is quite a few storys out at the minute about the coming winter

[shuggee]

Moving this to the media section - to go alongside all the other silly news stories :huh:

[snowmadchrisuk]

well they do say we officially have the highest rate of winter related deaths in the world! we need more money out of the social thats what it's really about ha!

[crimsone]

well they do say we officially have the highest rate of winter related deaths in the world! we need more money out of the social thats what it's really about ha!

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can I propose a satsigs level 6 - rediculous, unbelievable, and beyond a joke?

damned media :huh: (I'm doing my best to stay awake, even though I'm determined to go to sleep - now THATS screwed up!)

Edited October 24, 2005 by crimsone

[leaskovski]

Ah... good to see that the news sites are still talking utter crap!