Hurricane Rita.

[Mondy]

Should be upgraded soon to Hurricane Rita.

Already hurricane watches in effect along the Florida Keys and mass evacuations to take place.

Think this hurri will be around for a good time yet. Expected to reach Cat2 strength as it approaches the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Then, it's a free for all as to where she makes landfall. Some models suggest Texas, Louisiana or even New Orleans area.

As posted on the TD 18 thread, here's some links to webcams and TV feeds

Tv Feed

Webcam for Keys

Webcam 2

Webcam 3

Recon plane due to fly in to the storm soon..

[Polar Bear]

Should be upgraded soon to Hurricane Rita.

Already hurricane watches in effect along the Florida Keys and mass evacuations to take place.

Think this hurri will be around for a good time yet. Expected to reach Cat2 strength as it approaches the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Then, it's a free for all as to where she makes landfall. Some models suggest Texas, Louisiana or even New Orleans area.

As posted on the TD 18 thread, here's some links to webcams and TV feeds

Tv Feed

Webcam for Keys

Webcam 2

Webcam 3

Recon plane due to fly in to the storm soon..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks Mondi for setting up thread - superstar

[Mondy]

No probs.

Will be an interesting few days ahead!

[Polar Bear]

No probs.

Will be an interesting few days ahead!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you are not wrong there - shall look forward to the posts tomorrow. over and out

[londonsnow]

you are not wrong there - shall look forward to the posts tomorrow. over and out

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

rita does look like she'll turn into a monster. current track looks like taking her over as little land as possible, similar to katrina. difficullt days ahead. the media havent really clocked it much over here yet. that'll change shortly

[Mondy]

Another clickable map/model http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java/westatl.html Has it at Cat3 upon landfall. Still too far away tbh to go with it. Still, Cat 3 ain't to be sniffed at!

[derbyshire_lad]

on that map iits get awfully close to louisiana and new orleans

[Kiwi]

Rita, given her anticipated track, looks as if she might cause havoc amongst the gulf oil rigs and all the associated oil and chemical infrastructure around Houston.

No doubt petrol prices will go back up to the £1 a litre mark!

[Gray-Wolf]

the media havent really clocked it much over here yet. that'll change shortly

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe we're all being a little ahead of the game. We know the info's out there now but until she's in the Gulf and cat. 2 or above I don't think this side of the pond will bother with her.

On the other side of the pond I wouldn't mind betting FOX and CNN already have reporters nailing themselves to the sidewalk of every town within the forcast track. and how is G.W. Bush going to feel if the Billions $'s already poured into a the badley hit South gets wiped away by another bashing from a CAT. 3 or above forcing him to find further Billions $'s to spend on the region just to get him back to where he's at now? A.G.W. or not I think he may take the climate and it's potential impact upon millions of vulnerable U.S. citizens more seriously now!

EDIT Channel 4 news did give her a mention, british tourists evacuated from Florida Keys.

[derbyshire_lad]

Maybe we're all being a little ahead of the game. We know the info's out there now but until she's in the Gulf and cat. 2 or above I don't think this side of the pond will bother with her.

On the other side of the pond I wouldn't mind betting FOX and CNN already have reporters nailing themselves to the sidewalk of every town within the forcast track.   and how is G.W. Bush going to feel if the Billions $'s already poured into a the badley hit South gets wiped away by another bashing from a CAT. 3 or above forcing him to find further Billions $'s to spend on the region just to get him back to where he's at now? A.G.W. or not I think he may take the climate and it's potential impact upon millions of vulnerable U.S. citizens more seriously now!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

lol every town if that takes a turn it could go anywhere on the south coast so they would have to have a whole load of reporters

[londonsnow]

Maybe we're all being a little ahead of the game. We know the info's out there now but until she's in the Gulf and cat. 2 or above I don't think this side of the pond will bother with her.

On the other side of the pond I wouldn't mind betting FOX and CNN already have reporters nailing themselves to the sidewalk of every town within the forcast track.   and how is G.W. Bush going to feel if the Billions $'s already poured into a the badley hit South gets wiped away by another bashing from a CAT. 3 or above forcing him to find further Billions $'s to spend on the region just to get him back to where he's at now? A.G.W. or not I think he may take the climate and it's potential impact upon millions of vulnerable U.S. citizens more seriously now!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well said. the sooner GW accepts some form of responibility the better

[Mondy]

Just to give you an idea of how warm the waters are in the Gulf of Mexico!

http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

Think Rita will like those temps.

Edit: Rapidly gathering pace and shape. Wonder when the eye will take shape?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[Mondy]

Ok. A lot being talked about Miami bracing itself for a Cat 1 or 2 as Rita gathers speed and formation. Found a nice little streaming webcam of the beach (and a cafe - looks a busy place)! Miami Beach Storm Watch

[smich]

Looks to me like it's heading straight thru that corridor between Cuba and S Florida!

It seems very large already, but I expect it will shed that convection to the E and "shrink" a little, intensifying all the time.

This could be a very long thread Mondy!

Steve M

[Mondy]

Probably.

What's this mean? Air Force recon out:

URNT11 KNHC 191712

97779 17074 20243 77400 15200 05033 16139 /2515

40530

RMK AF302 0518A Rita OB 05

[Bilz]

It hasn't intensified quite as rapidly as expected. Winds haven't really increased much in the last 24 hours, only 5 mph or so to 65.

[Mondy]

South Florida Webcast

[P.K.]

Probably.

What's this mean? Air Force recon out:

URNT11 KNHC 191712

97779 17074 20243 77400 15200 05033 16139 /2515

40530

RMK AF302 0518A Rita OB 05

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Haven't decoded it fully but it basically means:

17:07 GMT

24.3N 77.4W

1520m flight level (850hPa)

50 Deg wind at 33kts

[Mondy]

Thanks P.K i knew you'd be able to do that

Not really a vast change i suppose?

[P.K.]

Looking at the recon for this afternoon:

NOAA3: Max 10 second wind of 53kts, I wouldn't trust the SFMR readings as quite a few are over 100kts so that can't be working properly.

AF302: Max 10 second wind of 60kts at 850hPa.

[SxK]

Latest Recon shows no strengthening in terms of wind speed.

000

URNT12 KNHC 191753

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 19/17:42:50Z

B. 23 deg 03 min N

075 deg 50 min W

C. 850 mb 1385 m

D. 50 kt

E. 306 deg 025 nm

F. 041 deg 060 kt

G. 311 deg 052 nm

H. 994 mb

I. 14 C/ 1519 m

J. 22 C/ 1524 m

K. 15 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1 345/ 8

O. 0.03 / 5 nm

P. AF302 0518A RITA OB 06

MAX FL WIND 60 KT NW QUAD 17:26:40 Z

[Mondy]

Already talk of potential 8ft storm surge on the Florida Keys.

[summer blizzard]

Here is the latest discussion.

since the last recon fix shortly before 12z...which measured a 997

mb central pressure...very deep convection has wrapped around the

low level center...so Rita is developing substantial inner core

convection for the first time. Dvorak intensity estimates at 12z

were unanimously t3.5/55 kt...which is the advisory intensity.

Recon is scheduled to be back into the system early this afternoon.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 10

knots...to the south of the eastern extension of a strong mid-level

ridge centered over Texas. Dynamical models are in very tight

agreement through 36 hours on basically this continued

heading...with perhaps a slight increase in forward speed as the

ridge to the north strengthens and the tropical cyclone deepens.

Most of the models and their consensus have shifted northward...and

the official forecast is adjusted likewise...bringing the track

closer to the Florida Keys than the previous advisory.

Additionally...most of the models have shifted farther north late

in the forecast period over the western Gulf of Mexico...due to a

weakening ridge as a trough approaches from the western United

States in several days. The official forecast is adjusted to the

north or right over the Gulf...but not as far as the model

consensus.

Recon data and surface observations indicate the size of the storm

is increasing...especially to the north of the center. The

forecast wind radii are expanded based on these data...wind radii

Cliper guidance...and global models depicting an expanding system.

It is important to emphasize that Rita could affect a large area

and one should not focus on the exact track.

Atmospheric conditions are continuing to become more conducive for

strengthening...and all forecast guidance suggests Rita should

intensify some more...before and after it reaches the Gulf of

Mexico. The new official intensity forecast is adjusted upward and

is a blend between the SHIPS and GFDL guidance through day 3...and

shows Rita reaching category two status before reaching the Gulf of

Mexico. There is a slight possibility it could strengthen faster

than forecast. All indications are that Rita will become a major

hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico... where a large upper level

anticyclone is forecast by the models to dominate and provide a

weak shear environment.

Forecaster Knabb

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/1500z 23.0n 75.2w 55 kt

12hr VT 20/0000z 23.4n 76.9w 70 kt

24hr VT 20/1200z 24.0n 79.4w 80 kt

36hr VT 21/0000z 24.4n 81.9w 90 kt

48hr VT 21/1200z 24.7n 84.5w 95 kt

72hr VT 22/1200z 25.5n 88.5w 100 kt

96hr VT 23/1200z 26.5n 92.5w 100 kt

120hr VT 24/1200z 29.0n 95.0w 100 kt

$$

[i luv snow]

isnt there a hurricane to the right of Rita in that pic? looks like a little eye anyway.lol EDIT: oh wait i just think im seeing things B)

[Mondy]

Recent model updates: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

One takes a direct path over New Orleans..is someone having a sick joke? B)