Hurricane Rita.

[i luv snow]

if it goes into the gulf isnt tht likely to make it a monster?

[Mondy]

defo ILS. Sea temps are pefect right now for a big development.

[Kain]

I know most people only really bother with Atlantic Hurricanes, yet the Pacific looks very active at the moment (Jova, Kennith, Lidia and Max) Jova a Cat 2 and Kennith being a Cat 3 Both could clip Hawaii.

Kain

[Gray-Wolf]

Recent model updates: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

One takes a direct path over New Orleans..is someone having a sick joke? B)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

IMO if she runs the Gulf coast the generated storm surge (full moon high tides??) could pose more problems to N.O. than a direct hit.

Those Levees are 'repaired' but even 'good as new' wasn't good enough last time, never mind the overall weakening to the rest of the Levee network. Weaknesses that haven't yet presented as a problem could well fail under the rigors of another Hurricane battering.

According to reports on the TV link in the posts above (Ta for that!) the tide/Rita surge is already flooding some roads in the Keys.

[Mondy]

Another excellent post from you GW..

Hard to believe really that N.O, Louisana areas could yet again be hit.

Still along way off however, but seems to be no factoring ridges of HP to steer it off course.

My own feelings are that it'll glide past the extreme SW coast of Florida then begin to soak up the GoM sea temps. I actually see no reason as to why a Cat 5 is not possible. All the makings are there.

Interesting is the latest loop showing a little, IMO, restructuring. Eyewall seems to be nowhere near forming.

I guess, as you mention GW, Florida Keys are the first areas to feel the wrath already.

Haven't checked the Tv links for ages..will do

Interesting little fact that a storm has never hit Texas that formed where Rita did. http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_climo.gif B)

Edited September 19, 2005 by Mondy

[P.K.]

isnt there a hurricane to the right of Rita in that pic? looks like a little eye anyway.lol EDIT: oh wait i just think im seeing things

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hurricane Philippe

One takes a direct path over New Orleans..is someone having a sick joke? B)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The GFDL did move over that way in a couple of the runs today, not quite as far east as the model you are referring to on there though.

I know most people only really bother with Atlantic Hurricanes, yet the Pacific looks very active at the moment (Jova, Kennith, Lidia and Max) Jova a Cat 2 and Kennith being a Cat 3 Both could clip Hawaii.

There has also just been a tropical storm in the NW Pacific. (Vicente)

[Mondy]

Latest data suggests Rita is still a Tropical Storm. Hurricane watches are in progress though.

NHC sticking to its track of a major hurricane coming in at Houston, TX.

[Mondy]

New data:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 19/21:00:40Z

B. 23 deg 05 min N

076 deg 21 min W

C. 850 mb 1392 m

D. 45 kt

E. 131 deg 044 nm

F. 217 deg 044 kt

G. 128 deg 027 nm

H. 994 mb

I. 16 C/ 1526 m

J. 23 C/ 1524 m

K. 16 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 5 nm

P. AF302 0518A RITA OB 18

MAX FL WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 19:20:30 Z

[smich]

I was wondering why Rita seemed to have stalled a bit, but the NHC put this down to the "Afternoon Minimum Convective Period" so it all seems quite normal! B)

I seriously wonder why this storm is not generating more warnings - those that can evacuate their homes in the target areas, should start now_ before the traffic jams start.

Steve M

[Mondy]

Again, nabbed from Wildonweather.com. This Jeff fella seems alarmingly worrying. Not even reached the GoM yet, but i suppose going by forecast models he has a very valid point.. B)

LATEST FROM JEFFL:

Folks - please please READ if you are in SE TEXAS.

Very serious hurricane threat to the upper TX coast.

Powerful hurricane capable of extensive damage is forecast to impact the area, PLEASE take this seriously.

Residents should begin preparations NOW. Persons is surge inundation zones need to complete securing of property by late Tuesday and be prepared to evacuate Wednesday.

I cannot stress enough the need for preparation at this time.

Evacuation Orders:

Voluntary evacuation orders for Galveston Island will begin at 200pm Tuesday

Track Forecast:

There are two guidance clusters right now one toward the Houston/Galveston area and the other toward the middle Texas coast. Based on sounding data it appears the ridge over the southern US will force Rita on a due W to WSW motion for the next 3-4 days. By Thursday the ridge begins to break down and allows Rita to turn more toward the WNW, NW, and NNW into a weakness over TX. When this happens is still much in question, but significant impacts are expected along the upper TX coast.

The official track brings a strong category 3 hurricane into Brazoria County and then northward into Houston. Note the error at Day 5 can be 300 miles.

Intensity:

The current NHC forecast brings the hurricane into the TX coast at sustained winds of 120mph. There is potential that Rita could be much stronger than currently forecast and all persons should prepare for a category 4 landfall. Rita will be a large hurricane with far reaching effects.

Preparations:

The time to begin preparations is NOW

Persons in storm surge evac. zones must begin preparing NOW. Be fully prepared to leave Wednesday or Thursday.

I strongly advise persons to stock up on needed items today or Tuesday.

Strike Probabilities:

Port Arthur: 5

Galveston: 5

Port O Conner: 3

Corpus: 2

[SxK]

I was wondering why Rita seemed to have stalled a bit, but the NHC put this down to the "Afternoon Minimum Convective Period" so it all seems quite normal! B)

Steve M

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The storm has actually weakened in the latest Recon compared to the previous Recon. As mondy has pointed out the TS seems to be reorganising itself, it should then develop rapidly.

[Gray-Wolf]

I was wondering why Rita seemed to have stalled a bit, but the NHC put this down to the "Afternoon Minimum Convective Period" so it all seems quite normal! B)

I seriously wonder why this storm is not generating more warnings - those that can evacuate their homes in the target areas, should start now_ before the traffic jams start.

Steve M

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

From the reports culled from MONDY's TV link it would appear that that is just what is happening. When folk realise they may not be able to rely on FEMA it seems to put a rocket under them!

Last year by the end of the season folk seemed to be becoming a little 'Hurricane Happy' and couldn't be a**sed to go through the rigmarole of shuttering up for another damp squib, but after Katrina........

Lets see what path Rita picks through the Florida straights and whether or not she slows over that 30c+ patch of sea just beyond the straights during tomorrow morning 'warm up ' period as this may kick start her into the potential monster she may well become.

It is going to be hard to pick out the bones of this story as the media seem to be going into a post Katrina frenzy. I hadn't expected our side of the media to pay much attention to Rita 'till she'd at least made Hurricane status but she's on all the major feeds it would seem. If she does grow into something BIG and powerful then I'd expect almost Hollywood like coverage from start to finish to make up for the bodge that was Katrina (now that G.W. has admited to the blame for the Katrina debacle then the Republican News organisations feel they can go out and present politically embarrassing images as news)

Another thought, with the clean up along the coast of the Gulf still underway isn't thare an awful lot of non-secured debris waiting to turn into missiles at the first excuse? Wasn't it the continual (over 10hrs) battering by debris that 'pecked away' at many properties leading to catastrophic structural failures? Aren't the properties left standing weakened by katrina, isolated by the destruction of neighbouring properties and at the mercy of this surrounding debris field?

[londonsnow]

it seems that new orleans' mayor has ordered a re-evacuation as a precaution, and a wise one. watch the media gear up as rita develops significantly after she passes through the keys and starts to feed on those sst's in the gulf

[SnowBear]

The centre is forming a little further west than I expected, day or so ago it was hopping about quite a bit hence my thought on the east coast of FL.

Does look like a shot straight through the Straits now though unless it keeps the turn to the wsw as it seems to have done at least on EOTS. If it keeps as is now, it will hit or sideswipe Cuba.

I am not really sure if it is a true turn wsw on the track or just the centre still hopping about within the system as it migrates within the convection while organising itself into a true hurricane and the models adjusting with the general forward motion being w/nw.

If it has turned slightly wsw, I can see Havana taking a hit, and then on to....huh, could be anywhere between Corpus Christi and TX/LA border, if it goes across the Keys, hmmmm, maybe the high pressure over LA will be enough to hold the storm at bay and push it round away from New Orleans this time, but the target area I feel will be between Houston and Baton Rouge.

Waiting game for now to see exactly how Rita fares and emerges into the Gulf I think as right now are so many variables.

[Polar Bear]

Ok. A lot being talked about Miami bracing itself for a Cat 1 or 2 as Rita gathers speed and formation. Found a nice little streaming webcam of the beach (and a cafe - looks a busy place)! Miami Beach Storm Watch

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one to keep me thinks

[SnowBear]

Well, overnight it has carried on forward in its general w/nw motion so I am guessing the slight w/sw turn was a migration of the centre further west as it did earlier in its track.

Very interesting in how the system seems to be having trouble building, hovering just below hurricane status as Ophelia did for some time.

[Thunder Snow]

what happens if we reach storm willma

Edited September 20, 2005 by Blizzard of the Northwest

[SnowBear]

what happens if we reach storm willma

It all goes on the Greek alphabet

Storm/Hurricane-Alpha

Storm/Hurricane-Beta

and so on

[Polar Bear]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-video.asp...g&id=1&speed=56

for live update

[Mondy]

Hi again.

Although the title of this thread says Hurricane Rita, she's still a strong Tropical Storm.

Anyway, she is moving fast westwards, skimming Key West and extreme south Florida. Still on course to become a Cat 2 upon entering the GoM. Then the guessing games really begin.

In the meantime, spent a bit more time finding cams/streaming audio. Take your pick below

Contollabe Web Cam, Miami

Live cams

Hurricane City live audio

CBS 4 TS Rita special

Various other Miami webcams

[Mondy]

Down to 985mb..drop of 3.

EDIT: As usual Reuters sum it up well, excellent report;

MIAMI, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Gusty squalls and heavy rain began to lash the Florida Keys on Tuesday as Tropical Storm Rita raced toward the low-lying islands.

All 80,000 residents were ordered out of the Keys on Monday but many remained behind in boarded-up homes to await the arrival of Rita. The storm was expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico where deadly Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc three weeks ago.

"It's raining pretty hard (but) there's no big wind yet," said Keys resident Mare Contrare, who protected her house with aluminum sheets. Contrare said it seemed too early to judge whether staying in the storm's path had been a mistake. "At this point it seems fine," she said.

Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez cautioned southern Florida not to dismiss the power of the coming storm, even as it struggled to reach hurricane strength.

"Tropical Storm Rita is a serious threat. Do not underestimate this storm," he said. "Stay home. No matter what, we're going to have lousy weather."

Schools, many government offices and some businesses were closed on Tuesday.

A Louisiana official warned that levees in New Orleans, where hundreds died in Katrina's floods, would fail again if the city were smashed by a new storm surge. Major Ray Nagin suspended plans for some residents to return to the sodden city.

Oil companies only starting to recover from Katrina evacuated Gulf oil rigs. Private forecasters said there was a 40 percent chance that damaging hurricane-force winds would directly affect major Gulf energy production areas.

Rita was expected to become a major hurricane with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 kph) as it drew strength from warm Gulf waters after passing by the Keys on Tuesday, said the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

By 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), the 17th tropical storm of an exceptionally busy Atlantic hurricane season had sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph), just 4 mph (6.4 km/h) short of hurricane status. The winds had not increased since Monday afternoon.

Rita's center was about 100 miles (160 km) east-southeast of Key West, Florida. The storm was headed west-northwest at about 15 mph (24 kph) and was expected to reach the Texas Gulf Coast later in the week, forecasters said.

Rita was expected to drench the Keys, a 110-mile (177-km) island chain, with up to 15 inches (38 cm) of rain and send a wall of seawater up to 9 feet (2.7 metres) above normal surging over the islands.

Military cargo planes evacuated the Keys' three acute-care hospitals.

Tropical storm-force winds were also being felt in the Miami area, home to 2.3 million people. About 3,900 homes and businesses were without power in Miami-Dade County, according to state officials.

Rita would be the seventh hurricane to hit Florida in 13 months.

Hurricane warnings were also in effect for the northwest islands of the Bahamas and northwestern Cuba.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and produces an average of about 11 tropical storms or hurricanes. Forecasters had predicted an unusual 2005 season with up to 21 storms due to warm sea temperatures and other conditions favorable to hurricanes.

(Additional reporting by Michael Peltier in Tallahassee)

Edited September 20, 2005 by Mondy

[Bilz]

Rita is really starting to try my patience now. For 48 hours she's been dithering about and can't make up her mind whether to become a hurricane or not, with winds fluctuating between 60 and 70mph. I thought she was expected to intensify a lot faster than this. Pretty soon she'll have made landfall without even have becoming a hurricane. I was hoping for at least a category 3.

[Mondy]

Tbh Bilz, many are already asking why she hasn't been made up to Hurricane status already. Someone from TWS mentions she should have been upgraded to Hurricane Rita 18 hours ago

Another thought Is it possible for a storm Rita's size to continue as a Tropical Storm all the way through the GoM? Just wondered (although i doubt it)..

Edited September 20, 2005 by Mondy

[Polar Bear]

Tbh Bilz, many are already asking why she hasn't been made up to Hurricane status already. Someone from TWS mentions she should have been upgraded to Hurricane Rita 18 hours ago

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mondy,

it is so very confusing..I am convinced that the BBC website had her down as hurricane rita this morning - although I cant be sure - now BBC say she is TS.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/extreme_weather.shtml

good overview of her location too from this. what do you think she will do tonight?

[SnowBear]

Latest recon

000

URNT12 KNHC 201216

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 20/12:03:50Z

B. 23 deg 43 min N

080 deg 20 min W

C. 850 mb 1309 m

D. 55 kt

E. 113 deg 056 nm

F. 186 deg 069 kt

G. 110 deg 044 nm

H. 985 mb

I. 14 C/ 1526 m

J. 21 C/ 1524 m

K. 17 C/ NA

L. OPEN S

M. E220/50/40

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF300 1018A RITA OB 07

MAX FL WIND 69 KT E QUAD 11:50:20 Z

69kt is approx 79mph at flight level, still under hurricane status at sea level at under 70mph or so.

Edit>>> it equates to approx 71mph at surface.

Edited September 20, 2005 by SnowBear