Hurricane Rita.

[PompeyFC]

At the top right of the animation that's ex-hurricane/tropical storm Phillipe, steaming towards Iceland/Faroe Isles.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

is that the low already there at T0 on east coast of amercica or the huge one that develops at around T36 off the east coast

very interested in this sort of thing

[Mondy]

This is an excellent shot of Rita and Phillipe.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I know this is the Rita thread, but Phillipe is a weird one. At the last frame, looks like something is joining him - a secondary low?.

Anyway, what's happening now to Rita - information a bit slow.

[Mondy]

New one: 9am (our time)

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 23

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR RITA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO

THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN

CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO

COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF

LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND

FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PORTIONS OF

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN TEXAS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER

TODAY.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR

THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND FOR NORTHEASTERN

MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS

TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST

LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA

IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 205 MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION OPERATED BY LOUISIANA STATE

UNIVERSITY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST RECENTLY REPORTED

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST OF 65 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF

130 FT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE

LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY

KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE

ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE

COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT

MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12

INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER

SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.

SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING

LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN

LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW

ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN

TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...26.8 N... 91.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 927 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[snow flake]

galveston webcam if anyone wanna watch it..www.galveston.com/webcams/

[kold weather]

Philppe is splitting in two,the actual tropical storm(looks quite extra-tropical to me to be honest) is pushing north-eastwards and a lobe of energy seems to be pushing west/south-west which is giving the system a very elongated look.

Rita's pressure upto 927,shes having a heck of a time trying to sort out her inner core with the inner eyewall still refusing to die of and let the outer-eyewall take charge although the actual eyewall replacement cycle should be getting close to ending now with eyewall open to the south-west according to latest reports.There is some very dry air over Texas which may be hampering Rita a little but its inner structual problems that is soley weakening this system like Katrina.

Strength looks pretty steady at 140mph now and should stay steady unless it gets its structual problems out of the way,if that happens then it may still have a fair chance of becoming a cat-5 again,the one thing this thing won't do is to die,at the least this will come in as a category-3 with a surge of a 5 which will be similar in terms of what Katrina had,so this system has every chance of being a very dangerous system on landfall,esp if it begins to wind itslef back up again which it has got time to do so,despite starting to push intop a region of lower heat content it seems.

I'm still going for a 140mph hitting Galveston.

Edited September 23, 2005 by kold weather

[Polar Bear]

New one: 9am (our time)

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 23

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR RITA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO

THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN

CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO

COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF

LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND

FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PORTIONS OF

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN TEXAS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER

TODAY.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR

THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND FOR NORTHEASTERN

MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS

TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST

LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA

IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 205 MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION OPERATED BY LOUISIANA STATE

UNIVERSITY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST RECENTLY REPORTED

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST OF 65 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF

130 FT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE

LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY

KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE

ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE

COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT

MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12

INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER

SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.

SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING

LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN

LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW

ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN

TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...26.8 N... 91.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 927 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

so she is still cat 4 then at 9am. Interesting. are we getting in conflicting information? there should be another at 10am so I wonder how that will fair.

[Mondy]

We seem to have different takes on it KW :unsure:

Oh well, i'd rather go with your thoughts than mine!

Seriously get up to cat 5 again? Honestly think she is decaying <_<

[kold weather]

Only a possiblty Mondy and that depends on whether it can sort itslef back out,it could very well just stay at mthe same strength it is now as it landfalls and maybe even weaken once it hits much lower heat content just offshore(remember Dennis...)I wouldn't say its decaying,just having to sort itslef out again,can tell this by there still being two wind max on recon this morning,meaning at least at the time there was two eyewalls,meaning it was still in eyewall replacement and so its hardly suprising to see it still weakening.

[Fraggle]

Latest discussion (taken an hour to come through the email!):-

000

WTNT43 KNHC 230856

TCDAT3

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

RITA IS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THIS MORNING...AS

THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

SHOWED THAT THE INNER 15 N MI WIDE EYE HAD DISSIPATED AND A SINGLE

33 N MI WIDE EYE EXISTED.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN

THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ARE 125-130 KT...WHICH HELPS SUPPORT AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED THAT ANOTHER

WIND MAXIMA HAS FORMED ABOUT 60 N MI FROM THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT

BE THE START OF ANOTHER OUTER EYEWALL.  THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE

REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB.

RITA IS MOVING BETWEEN 300-305 DEGREES AT 8-9 KT.  RAWINSONDE DATA

AT 00Z INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT OVER

TEXAS.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48

HR...ALLOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BECOME MORE

NORTHERLY.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW CLUSTERED ABOUT A LANDFALL ON THE

UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ROUGHLY 30 HR...WITH THE MODEL TRACK BEING

SPREAD BETWEEN SAN LUIS PASS AND SABINE PASS.  THE FORECAST TRACK

UP TO LANDFALL IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

AFTER LANDFALL...THE GUIDANCE BECOME VERY DIVERGENT AS HIGH

PRESSURE BUILD TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF RITA.  GIVEN THE

SPREAD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HR

JUST AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID.  THIS STALLING WILL POSE A

SERIOUS RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC.  SINCE RITA HAS

COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY

OF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING

THE NEXT 12 HR.  AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY...

POSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE

INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT

WEAKENING.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT

STRENGTHEN...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL.

THIS COULD HAPPEN IF THE SHEAR REACHES THE 25 KT VALUES FORECAST BY

THE GFS AND SHIPS MODELS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0900Z 26.8N  91.0W  120 KT

12HR VT    23/1800Z 27.6N  92.2W  125 KT

24HR VT    24/0600Z 28.9N  93.6W  120 KT

36HR VT    24/1800Z 30.4N  94.6W    80 KT...INLAND

48HR VT    25/0600Z 31.5N  95.0W    45 KT...INLAND

72HR VT    26/0600Z 33.0N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND

96HR VT    27/0600Z 33.0N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND

120HR VT    28/0600Z 33.0N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING

So, maybe a second EWR before the first has fully completed. Is that normal?

[Mondy]

Find this very interesting reading:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. SINCE RITA HAS

COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY

OF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING

THE NEXT 12 HR. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY...

POSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE

INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT

WEAKENING. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT

STRENGTHEN..

[kold weather]

Very intresting discussion there,second eyewall replacement cycle occuring hot on the heels of the last one,it would explain why this whole thing is taking so long though.I'll wait for the next recon to see if it has a double wind maxia still,if it has then another EWR would only be a few hours behind this one limiting any posslbe strengthen.It's certainly having massive problems internally,there is no doubt about that,and some slight shear at present probably isn't helping.GFS is likely wrong on shear as I suspect it has over-strengthened the high pressure cell giving shear on Rita,that is why its the only model to shift it southwards the way it does(although ther eis some slight agreement now with a few other models,but personally I expect it just to slow down a heck of alot of over Texas rather then turn back into the gulf.)

If this is the case,forget cat-5,it may have a hard time staying cat-4 if this is the case.Oh how i hate it when storms do this complex sort of thing!!!! <_<

Edited September 23, 2005 by kold weather

[PersianPaladin]

I don't think it will make landfall as anything less than a Cat 4.

[Snow Queen one]

Just a news update:- Parts of Manchester Airport have been closed a man was found near stand 26 acting suspciously when police attempted to arrest him he resisted and a tazer was used. The army bomb disposal team have been bought in and the area cordened off. Scary :o

[Polar Bear]

Find this very interesting reading:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC.  SINCE RITA HAS

COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY

OF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING

THE NEXT 12 HR.  AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY...

POSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE

INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT

WEAKENING.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT

STRENGTHEN..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you have beaten me to it and what I was about to write - couldnt agree more. SO you were right Mondy she was undergoing another ew replacement, no? What time is she expected to hit land fall our time then ( although I know she may veer back into the gulf/ any thoughts?

[Gray-Wolf]

Find this very interesting reading:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC.  SINCE RITA HAS

COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY

OF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING

THE NEXT 12 HR.  AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY...

POSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE

INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT

WEAKENING.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT

STRENGTHEN..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And this is the clarity 18 hrs out eh? the more we know the less we understand. This is a real time event with all of our 'technology' pointed at it and we still can only forcast "it could get bigger, it could get smaller"

I saw an item on FOX by a chap whose mooting dropping the absorbant crystals from disposable nappies (via 10 Jumbo jets) into one quadrant of the Hurricane to 'soak up ' the moisture and destabilise/calm the storm................. :o

[PersianPaladin]

I saw an item on FOX by a chap whose mooting dropping the absorbant crystals from disposable nappies (via 10 Jumbo jets) into one quadrant of the Hurricane to 'soak up ' the moisture and destabilise/calm the storm................. :o

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well that chap is a profoundly ignorant cretin... :o

[Arrows]

I'm still going with my prediction. It will strike as a cat 4. and quickly become a cat 3. New Orleans will see heavy flooding and so will parts of Texas. I think Texas will get creamed

[Polar Bear]

I saw an item on FOX by a chap whose mooting dropping the absorbant crystals from disposable nappies (via 10 Jumbo jets) into one quadrant of the Hurricane to 'soak up ' the moisture and destabilise/calm the storm................. :o

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[PersianPaladin]

000

WTUS84 KCRP 230649

HLSCRP

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ232>234-242>247-231000-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

200 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS

COAST...

...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES...

SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...BEE...VICTORIA AND

KLEBERG COUNTIES...

...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS

HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS EARLY

SATURDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR

SOUTH TO PORT MANSFIELD. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS

COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

INCLUDES KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND

CALHOUN COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER

TEXAS COAST AND PARTS OF LOUISIANA FROM PORT O'CONNOR NORTHWARD TO

MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE

TEXAS COASTAL COUNTIES OF KLEBERG...NUECES...BEE...SAN PATRICIO...

REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE

26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST

OF CORPUS CHRISTI.

RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO

THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK

HURRICANE RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA

REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.EVACUATION INFORMATION...

MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY. A

DUSK TO DAWN CURFEW IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY.

VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL BEND

COUNTIES OF BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...REFUGIO...JIM WELLS...

AND NUECES.

FOR CORPUS CHRISTI...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE

FOR THE CITY.

FOR PORT ARANSAS...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE.

THE BEACHES REMAIN CLOSED.

EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO...

AND KLEBERG COUNTIES.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...

LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO

THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60

NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS

WILL RISE TO 13 TO 17 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING AND 20 TO 25 FEET

OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE

MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY NORTH TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HIGH

SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE AT PORT OCONNOR. HIGH TIDE AT PORT OCONNOR

IS AT 450 AM.

THE SWELL COMBINED WITH THESE HIGH TIDES WILL PUSH TIDE LEVELS AS

HIGH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH

FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH

ACCESS ROADS. THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE HAS ALREADY REPORTED

THE WATER UP TO THE DUNES.

TIDE LEVELS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT

PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL

CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING

AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...LARGE

SECTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE

ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA

MAY ALSO OCCUR.

IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER

RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR

SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

...WIND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS...WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...COULD

REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF

CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT OCONNOR.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM CDT

THIS EVENING.

$$

DUNN

[Kiwi]

Well that chap is a profoundly ignorant cretin... :o

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Or a major shareholder in Pampers!!

Is Rita beginning to veer a bit more to the west??- heading for Galveston again. :o The forecaster on KPRC (Houston) seems to think so.

[PersianPaladin]

Latest image of Rita: -

Is it me or is she shrinking?

Edited September 23, 2005 by PersianPaladin

[Gray-Wolf]

Latest Sat. shows the first of the 'major rainfall' just off N.O. and moving in, lets see how she fares over the next 8 hrs.

[PersianPaladin]

I think we need a new thread....

[Thunder Snow]

Me to its hard keeping up

[Weatherwatcher]

Hurricane Rita part 2:

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=20773