Hurricane Rita.

[P.K.]

Tbh Bilz, many are already asking why she hasn't been made up to Hurricane status already. Someone from TWS mentions she should have been upgraded to Hurricane Rita 18 hours ago

If recon hasn't found strong enough winds there is no reason to upgrade it even if the pressure is fairly low. (The background pressures aren't the same with all tropical cyclones and the size of the storm is also a factor)

[Mondy]

Mondy,

it is so very confusing..I am convinced that the BBC website had her down as hurricane rita this morning - although I cant be sure  - now BBC say she is TS.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/extreme_weather.shtml

good overview of her location too from this. what do you think she will do tonight?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Become a hurricane within hours/mins even, have a little belly flop, re-organise and continue due west. High pressure to the north and low to the south will make sure she continues westward. Remember too, the confidence on the initial track is very high ( S.Texas - Houston). I stick with that.

EDIT: Indeed now Hurricane Rita. 78 knots reported in NW Quad. Hurricane hunters say so!

[SnowBear]

Mondy, is that flight level wind speed ?

[Stuart]

it a cat 1 now

[Mondy]

Yep, the 11 AM advisory will include all the relevant wind speeds..

[londonsnow]

according to radio nhcwx the noaa have just made the announcment that rita is now a hurricane, a weak cat 1. expected to strengthen explosively over the next 2 hours

[Polar Bear]

Become a hurricane within hours/mins even, have a little belly flop, re-organise and continue due west. High pressure to the north and low to the south will make sure she continues westward. Remember too, the confidence on the initial track is very high ( S.Texas - Houston). I stick with that.

EDIT: Indeed now Hurricane Rita. 78 knots reported in NW Quad. Hurricane hunters say so!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

thanks Mondy, a nice summary to keep me up to speed and in laymans engliDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me

[P.K.]

1216. 2411N 08051W 01523 5053 052 077 152 152 078 01501 0000000000

78kt 10 second wind, 77kt 30 second wind at 850hPa.

[SnowBear]

That would equate to roughly 80mph at surface ?

[SnowBear]

I think at the moment also, is a fair amount of land drag from FL and Cuba, could be keeping things a little slower for now.

[P.K.]

I thought it was an 80% reduction from this level which would make it 62kts.

Radio NHCWX would go to a break just as I start Teamspeak wouldn't it, lol.

[Mondy]

Not the best loop yet of Rita, but certainly looking like a Cat 1 now.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/main.html Click on '4km Visible', slow the speed down and definetly good curvature.

Edit: Choose Eastern USA

[SnowBear]

I thought it was an 80% reduction from this level which would make it 62kts.

You are probably right P.K.

With Katrina I looked up the math for the workings out and I got 90% as a figure, but looking again elsewhere now it can be between 60-85%.

to adjust winds at flight level to the surface show that surface winds over the ocean are typically 60-85% of the flight-level winds, depending on the wind strength and the air-sea temperature difference. In strong winds the percentage drops to 70-75 % and in areas of water much colder than the air it can drop to 50-60%. Over land these percentages drop another 15-20% depending on the terrain and exposure.

So, quite a few factors here I guess, land drag, sea temp, etc, probably the % should be closer to 75-80% which brings us into the range of 66-70mph, at 85% its 74.8mph.

[Gray-Wolf]

And she seems to be keeping to open water and heading for the warm pool just beyond the Florida straights.....and all under the blazing, daytime sun. I would expect a little intensification before their local nightfall!!!

After that then we'll have to wait and see. You would hope that she has been forcast well and will go where the models predict but their is always a strong caveat at the end of the reports letting you know that its still only a 'best guess', especially from 3 days out.

[P.K.]

With Katrina I looked up the math for the workings out and I got 90% as a figure, but looking again elsewhere now it can be between 60-85%.

A 90% reduction is used from 700hPa (As with Katrina), however in that case the SFMR wsa measuring winds of less than 90% of the flight level winds at the surface so they said the 90% may have been a bit high.

Edit - 982hPa in the latest vortex message.

[londonsnow]

And she seems to be keeping to open water and heading for the warm pool just beyond the Florida straights.....and all under the blazing, daytime sun. I would expect a little intensification before their local nightfall!!!

After that then we'll have to wait and see. You would hope that she has been forcast well and will go where the models predict but their is always a strong caveat at the end of the reports letting you know that its still only a 'best guess', especially from 3 days out.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

would i be right in thinking that intensification happens more easily at night? i'm sure i heard someone say that on nhcwx

[SnowBear]

Thanks P.K. !

Noticed the differing flight levels they are using in some info I am reading so will read up on that part

[P.K.]

1343 2403N 08019W 03041 0014 134 078 094 094 080 03102 0000000000

10 second wind of 80kts, 30 second wind of 78kts.

[Bilz]

Looks like it's finally a hurricane then. How exciting! 80 knots...that's 92mph

[P.K.]

The last mini-obs I last posted are at 700hPa so a 90% reduction should now be used rather than 80%.

[Gray-Wolf]

would i be right in thinking that intensification happens more easily at night? i'm sure i heard someone say that on nhcwx

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

then I guess your info to be right then! maybe the lower air temps allow a more rapid uptake of the warmer surface air and rapid convection results. I dare say with all that cloud not much sunshine makes it to the ground to help heat up the air but overnight the potential difference between SLT and air must be greater. Thanks for the heads up londonsnow

[kaz]

well said. the sooner GW accepts some form of responibility the better

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Most sensible thing i have read in a long time. GW and resposibility just dont go together. Just wish he would take that dam smirk of his face.

lol kaz x

[Gray-Wolf]

Most sensible thing i have read in a long time.  GW and resposibility just dont go together. Just wish he would take that dam smirk of his face.

lol kaz x

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My sister used to wear 'that smirk', it meant she was totally lost in a debate/up to her ears in s**t/not quite understanding your concern when she was being a dumb A**E. It has helped me come to terms with his uncomely face (his reasons for looking that way may include the ravages of his past liking for drink or being saved or both!!!).

[londonsnow]

Anyway folks, less about dubya....

I'm only just starting to get interested in the whole TS/Hurricane formation thing, but would I be far off the mark if I said that what happens after Rita has passed Florida will be the interesting/worrying part??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you would be bang on mark i reckon CMD

[i luv snow]

im in the same boat as you CMD, and yea i guess what happens in the Gulf will the exciting, interesting thing!! lol (and yea, maybe a tad worrying!)