Hurricane Rita Pt3

[Mondy]

Models are very persistent for track, with almost every one of them stalling it over Texas somewhere. Looking at the potential for major flooding.

And on an equally unhappy note the overnight TWD has 3 waves out in the Atlantic, two of which appear to have the possibility to become tropical depressions eventually..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

[Kain]

Some bus caring the elderly has just blown up in Texas according to FOX

Kain

[Mondy]

This channel is showing the bus crash scene: http://a617.l1294438616.c12944.g.lm.akamai...reflector:38616

[Weatherwatcher]

Some are saying the ridge is moving out of the way now so we could see a clear turn north. Must say I'm not even going to bother second guessing Rita now.

[londonsnow]

This channel is showing the bus crash scene: http://a617.l1294438616.c12944.g.lm.akamai...reflector:38616

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

itn just reporting this, but sketchy

[snow raven]

itn just reporting this, but sketchy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I saw that too on TV. Think theres not much news on it as it has litterally only just happened

[Weatherwatcher]

Some bus caring the elderly has just blown up in Texas according to FOX

Kain

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Heard there was a fire on a bus in Texas with elderly passengers on board. Think it was carrying evacuees. Heard also people are dying waiting in the traffic jams due to heat. Very hot in Texas today.

Just in - Fire is out, 1 confirmed death and multiple injuries.

[Mondy]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 231151

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

7 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TOWARD

THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN

CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO

COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF

LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND

FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PORTIONS OF

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN TEXAS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER

TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF

CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS

TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST

LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA

IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205

MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE

LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY

KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE

ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE

COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT

MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12

INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER

SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.

SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING

LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN

LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW

ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN

TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...27.1 N... 91.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 23/11:43:10Z

B. 27 deg 05 min N

091 deg 27 min W

C. 700 mb 2481 m

D. NA kt

E. deg nm

F. 309 deg 098 kt

G. 215 deg 017 nm

H. 927 mb

I. 12 C/ 3043 m

J. 17 C/ 3046 m

K. 15 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. E36/30/25

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF307 2118A RITA OB 21

MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 08:25:00 Z

INNER EYEWALL RAGGED ON NORTH SIDE, THIN S.

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[flagpole]

Heard there was a fire on a bus in Texas with elderly passengers on board. Think it was carrying evacuees. Heard also people are dying waiting in the traffic jams due to heat. Very hot in Texas today.

Just in - Fire is out, 1 confirmed death and multiple injuries.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

One channel is saying several dead.

First reports suggest that the elderly were on oxygen and the oxygen tanks started to explode.

Looking at the pictures it is hard to believe anyone got out.

[Mondy]

Don't really think that post is relevant to anything on this thread!

This is though.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p60_072l.gif

Yellow is 9+ inches...and with some forcasters saying 25-30 inches possible, you could have some areas that are a lot more than 9 inches.

[PersianPaladin]

Don't really think that post is relevant to anything on this thread!

This is though.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p60_072l.gif

Yellow is 9+ inches...and with some forcasters saying 25-30 inches possible, you could have some areas that are a lot more than 9 inches.

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What post isn't relevant?

[kold weather]

Some areas of LA already seeing upwards of a inch of rain,including New Orleans.The heavier rain is just off-shore and thats where the most will be falling.Rainfall has totaled at 5.00 inches about 100nm off-shore at present,those totals are only gonig to increase as the eyewall.

[Kain]

Talking about the poor people on the bus.

Geez, give it a break...If it wern't for Rita those people wouldn't have been on the bus.

Kain

[PersianPaladin]

Hey! Who removed my post?!?

Please...if any one removes any posts please say that u are doing so. I find that extremely annoying.

Edited September 23, 2005 by PersianPaladin

[flagpole]

KHOU Channel now saying nine people possibly up to twenty may have died on the bus.

Horrendous scene.

[SxK]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 23/11:43:10Z

B. 27 deg 05 min N

  091 deg 27 min W

C. 700 mb 2481 m

D. NA  kt

E.    deg    nm

F. 309 deg 098 kt

G. 215 deg 017 nm

H.        927 mb

I.  12 C/ 3043 m

J.  17 C/ 3046 m

K.  15 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. E36/30/25

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 /  1 nm

P. AF307 2118A RITA        OB 21

MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 08:25:00 Z

INNER EYEWALL RAGGED ON NORTH SIDE, THIN S.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

According to this recon she is losing wind speed. Max gusts of 126KT in the last recon equates to about 140mph top winds, sustained winds are probably nearer 125mph making it a Cat 3.

[londonsnow]

Don't really think that post is relevant to anything on this thread!

This is though.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p60_072l.gif

Yellow is 9+ inches...and with some forcasters saying 25-30 inches possible, you could have some areas that are a lot more than 9 inches.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

with rita slowing, cant help thinking that flooding will be more of the story that wind damage. whats the relief like in se texas?

[PersianPaladin]

According to this recon she is losing wind speed. Max gusts of 126KT in the last recon equates to about 140mph top winds, sustained winds are probably nearer 125mph making it a Cat 3.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

High winds or not...there are going to be some violent thunderstorms and very heavy downpours in Texas and LA later on tonight.

Relief in Texas is pretty flat i think.

Edited September 23, 2005 by PersianPaladin

[flagpole]

Hey! Who removed my post?!?

Please...if any one removes any posts please say that u are doing so. I find that extremely annoying.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You'll maybe get a pm about it. Just remember if a post is removed it's done by a mod and they are IN CHARGE. Best not to argue if you like posting on here

[Mondy]

According to this recon she is losing wind speed. Max gusts of 126KT in the last recon equates to about 140mph top winds, sustained winds are probably nearer 125mph making it a Cat 3.

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I'm thinking along the lines of another eyewall replacement - is that possible now KW?

[SxK]

I'm thinking along the lines of another eyewall replacement - is that possible now KW?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, NHC states that the eyewall is thin, which obviously means that eyewall replacement is likely. But I would say additional strengthening even if it forms a new eyewall is relatively slim.

I would expect landfall at about Cat 3 - 120mph winds.

[SnowBear]

Not sure about ERC , think Rita is trying to deal with a large pocket of dry air which was drawn in overnight and is allowing the pressure to come up slowly in the eye.

This image shows it quite well with the rising sun causing shadows on the cloud top, the area to the west that looks almost clear, follow this in along the spiral and its where the eyewall is ragged and open, if Rita can close that, then it can intensify, time though is running out for her to be able to overcome this.

If it does stay weakened and makes landfall as a Cat2/3 it will be a saving grace though it will still cause immense damage.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg

Edited September 23, 2005 by SnowBear

[PersianPaladin]

Looks like a battle between the ridge and the trough....

[Snow Queen one]

I would agree it has drag from NO now which will slow it down. I think the people in that jam near the bus crash will be in line for a bit of a dousing and a windy night because they look as if they will not be moving very much

[Mondy]

Storm surge map.

Reports of water 2ft above a walkway in Mobile, Alabama! That is well away from Rita. Goes to show how vast the rain fall is. So if it's 2ft above the normal in Mobile, what's New Orleans?

Interesting too: http://www.csi.lsu.edu/wave/wav_prediction.html

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy