Hurricane Rita Pt3

[PersianPaladin]

Okay...i'll try again shall I.

If temperatures on the coast were as high as those in Basra (i.e. 40 degree's +) - how much of a bearing would have that on rainfall exarcebation as well as the degree of convergence?

[Polar Bear]

I would agree it has drag from NO now which will slow it down.  I think the people in that jam near the bus crash will be in line for a bit of a dousing and a windy night because they look as if they will not be moving very much

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yeah on the queues why on earth haven't they opened up the southbound carriageways to northbound traffic - they could have at least allowed one lane of traffic to use the southbound ones. I know it will probably be a bit of traffic management nightmare to organise - but at least it would mean the queues could move. Now these guys could have a horrid night after waiting hours in hot temps. It just goes from bad to worse for them.

[flagpole]

yeah on the queues why on earth haven't they opened up the southbound carriageways to northbound traffic - they could have at least allowed one lane of traffic to use the southbound ones. I know it will probably be a bit of traffic management nightmare to organise - but at least it would mean the queues could move. Now these guys could have a horrid night after waiting hours in hot temps. It just goes from bad to worse for them.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There are still vehicles using the other carriageway and as has been shown with the bus accident it was how a lot of emergency vehicles gained access. I suppose they might make that decision as time goes on, I think they did the same during the build up to Katrina.

[matmilne]

Storm surge map.

Reports of water 2ft above a walkway in Mobile, Alabama! That is well away from Rita. Goes to show how vast the rain fall is. So if it's 2ft above the normal in Mobile, what's New Orleans?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If anyone is in new orleans and reading this board i would advise them to quickly run to the nearest tall building and get up as high as they can, those leves are 99% likely to burst wth all the rain water. they can only handle 3 inches, and more than that has fallen, it's only a matter of time, so get out of there while you still can.

Anyone within the hurricane zone is advised to get to a building out of flood reach immediately anywhere between galveston and new orleans. Don't sit there reading, go now!

If those 2 storms do develop we're looking at another possible 4/5 for US landfall in october.

And don't forget folks, britain is in their path as well. Two severe tropical storms will come to us in october. November could be a bad month as well.

[Mondy]

New Orleans radar or radar 2

Another

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[PompeyFC]

what makes you think we will get 2 severe tropical storms

[Polar Bear]

And don't forget folks, britain is in their path as well. Two severe tropical storms will come to us in october. November could be a bad month as well.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[MAF]

Landfall now expected around 0700 tomorrow morning (our time)

[Mondy]

Landfall now expected around 0700 tomorrow morning (our time)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Will miss it all. Should've swapped days off!

Don't know how much longer NHC can keep this a CAT 4 with the pressure raising.

[SnowBear]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

Last 2 frames, click to switch off all but the last 2, the dry air feed is pretty much stiffled now, the eye getting smaller and becoming more circular, I think Rita could intensify again before landfall

Edited September 23, 2005 by SnowBear

[MAF]

the high above rita (to the north of it) will slow it down and in effect be pushing against it. this will mean once it makes landfall its progress will slow considerably. sadly this means it will drop a lot of rain continually in the low lying areas, flooding may be the worst problem as opposed to the wind strength.

[Mondy]

I really don't know what to think about Rita now. Confused? I am!

Rita's eye is now visible on the long range base reflectivity out of Lake Charles. When she gets a little closer, we'll be able to get a better look at this new eyewall replacement cycle which i think she's going through again! (told you i was confused)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.klch.shtml

Rita 30 mins ago This sat image updates regularly

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/hgx_N0Z_lp.shtml

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

This deserves a new post.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

The eyewall on this loop above is almost gone

She is going through an ERC again!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[SnowBear]

lol I got about 20 darn windows open on sat images, tracks, loops and recon on Rita

[Gray-Wolf]

This deserves a new post.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

The eyewall on this loop above is almost gone

She is going through an ERC again!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

On the second loop posted you can see the eyewall collapse in but is that then some kind of high level outpouring from the eye as it collapses? I've never seen anything like that before, just as though the column of air in the eye got squeezed out of the top of the eye as it collapsed like emptying a tube of toothpaste!!.

[Mondy]

I can't believe she keeps going through ERCs. I honestly expected her to be strengthening for a short spurt instead of weakening. That being said, she's not exactly a weak storm right now!

I think i'm right in saying if it remains stuck in an endless cycle of ERCs, any deepening would be minimal and the max winds will end up being less than what the pressure would indicate. (you can see i'm self taught)

[PersianPaladin]

I can't believe she keeps going through ERCs. I honestly expected her to be strengthening for a short spurt instead of weakening. That being said, she's not exactly a weak storm right now!

I think i'm right in saying if it remains stuck in an endless cycle of ERCs, any deepening would be minimal and the max winds will end up being less than what the pressure would indicate.  (you can see i'm self taught)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep...she's still a Cat 4.

Sustained winds are now fluctuating between 135-140mph.

I think she'll maintain as a low Cat 4 until hitting land...mainly because she is still in the Gulf and the high pressure to the north is slowly starting to wane.

Edited September 23, 2005 by PersianPaladin

[Gray-Wolf]

So either;

1/ the dry input from Texas has brought in such instability that the eyewall has collapsed and this loss of integrity will slowly spread through the system as she approaches land.

2/ G.W. sanctioned the 'pampers option' from B52's over the NW quadrant and we're seeing the result

3/She's going through a very dynamic ERC and is now at the same stage as she was before the eyewall emerged after the Florida straights (only she's now 5 times larger and twice as strong) and will soon rebuild an eye and core pressure will drop off rapidly again.

Any other options for the current state of play?

[Mondy]

RECON should report back soon with their findings about the state of play with the eye.

[Hemlock]

It if loses it's eye is it likely to fall to bits quite quickly? or will the current rotation keep it going?

[matmilne]

Yep...she's still a Cat 4.

Sustained winds are now fluctuating between 135-140mph.

I think she'll maintain as a low Cat 4 until hitting land...mainly because she is still in the Gulf and the high pressure to the north is slowly starting to wane.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'd expect remnants of phil to join us at the start of october, rita would probably join with several low systems, northern canada then float across for mid-late october. Any storms which develop now till mid october would be with us in early november. it usually takes an ex-us hurricane 2-4 weeks to join us.

like at the moment, the remnants of ophilia are moving through due here at the midlle of this week.

It's a shame the satellite feed doesn't go form the south west coast of the usa to europe and africa cause that would give us a really good idea of what's going on

but i guess they're probably better spent monitoring rita.

[matmilne]

i'd expect remnants of phil to join us at the start of october, rita would probably join with several low systems, northern canada then float across for mid-late october.  Any storms which develop now till mid october would be with us in early november.  it usually takes an ex-us hurricane 2-4 weeks to join us.

like at the moment, the remnants of ophilia are moving through due here at the midlle of this week.

It's a shame the satellite feed doesn't go form the south west coast of the usa to europe and africa cause that would give us a really good idea of what's going on

but i guess they're probably better spent monitoring rita.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The major problem with an unstable eye is that it upsets the entire system making it's course erratic and causes major problems when it dissipates, destabilising the internal cells cause a huge outbreak of tornados and severe lightening storms. The problem gets worse if what happens to phil happens. the internal systems seperate and wreak havoc all over the usa. Rather like blowing a dandelion over someone's face.

Think of the eye like the keystone in a bridge, remove that stone and you are crushed by thousands of stone slabs. It's not looking good for the south of america. And the season's not over yet.

There are any number of possible scenarios for what will happen to rita once she touches land, but there's very few ways of telling which ones will happen. The worst i fear is yet to come.

[Mondy]

Fox news now showing flooding in New Orleans

Not surprised: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_N0Z_lp.shtml

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[flagpole]

Fox news now showing flooding in New Orleans

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep News24 saying a levee has been breached, showing footage now. Not looking good.

[Mondy]

Pressure up 2mb

URNT12 KNHC 231433

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 23/14:10:10Z

B. 27 deg 14 min N

091 deg 48 min W

C. 700 mb 2488 m

D. 75 kt

E. 237 deg 027 nm

F. 322 deg 111 kt

G. 237 deg 014 nm

H. 929 mb

I. 12 C/ 3048 m

J. 18 C/ 3043 m

K. 14 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C28

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF307 2118A RITA OB 29

MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 11:48:40 Z

MAX FL TEMP 19 C, 238 / 8NM

EYEWALL THIN SE THRU SSW.

Edited coz pressure rised by 2, not fell by 1

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy