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My Winter Ode- 2005/2006


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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Great read Steve, very educational and informative.

Love the video :):)

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A truly awesome post Steve...I think I'll be referring to it regularly for the next six months! :):):)

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Steve, thanks for posting such an informative thread. You mention that its going to help newer members... i think its going to benefit everyone!

I admit i know little about the weather but i will need to read your post throughly and with no disturbances. :)

Good work buddy :)

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Posted
  • Location: W Kent/E Sussex border (T Wells) 139m ASL
  • Location: W Kent/E Sussex border (T Wells) 139m ASL

Steve,

Wow, I've just read the "ode" and it is a fantastic source of reference material. It will be of great value to all of us during this (and subsequent!) winters.

Well done mate - be sure your efforts are appreciated!

MM

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

hi Steve

Not yet had a chance to read it all but its very impressive. I'm sure not just 'newbies' will find some of it very useful to refer to.

cheers

John

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hi Steve

Not yet had a chance to read it all but its very impressive. I'm sure not just 'newbies' will find some of it very useful to refer to.

cheers

John

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks John..... Et Al'

If anyone has any queries then please dont hesitate to ask or PM me...

S

PS great Post TomSE

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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

Thanks John..... Et Al'

If anyone has any queries then please dont hesitate to ask or PM me...

S

PS great Post TomSE

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Morning Steve,Queries? I got lots of them, I have read your ode and it is great--some I understand and some--well maybe I am just to old to teach!--however I shall read the parts that are not quite getting to my brain several more times and then perhaps it may become clearer.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

It's a pretty impressive 'ode'- I think I learnt a fair bit from that!

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Morning Steve,Queries? I got lots of them, I have read your ode and it is great--some I understand and some--well maybe I am just to old to teach!--however I shall read the parts that are not quite getting to my brain several more times and then perhaps it may become clearer.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

PM me Rollo or if you think they are going to be general queries post them on the board....

TWS- Very flattering- im sure however you had it covered knowledge wise-

Steve

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

Great stuff Steve! Just what I expected from the 'Ode'! It kept me going for a good 45 minutes and has given me lots of hope for 05/06 :) !

AM

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Posted
  • Location: Ellesmere,north shropshire
  • Location: Ellesmere,north shropshire

wow...thanks Steve ...brilliant article and one that I will read and read ...untill it sinks in to old grey matter :)

just one little dumb question :) ...on all the charts ..do all the systems rotate clockwise ....I know some...anti-cyclone...? rotate the other way

how do you define which is which on the charts.....sorry :)

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

hi SP

this is part of what you said

'It gives goosebumps reading through these accounts of sixties winters (shivering sixties lol!) - one burst of cold air easing but replaced by another one. The GH and SH/SH taking their turn in bringing the excitement'

believe you me, from one who experienced both 47 and 63 it would give you more than goose bumps.

After a couple of weeks you really do long for a bit of warmth.

regards

John

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wow...thanks Steve ...brilliant article and one that I will read and read ...untill it sinks in to old grey matter  :)

just one little dumb question  :) ...on all the charts ..do all the systems rotate clockwise ....I know some...anti-cyclone...? rotate  the other way

how do you define which is which on the charts.....sorry  :)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Dl-

No- not all systems rotate clockwise-

Areas of high pressure - or Anticyclones rotate clockerwise and areas of Low pressure rotate Anti clockwise-

On the Fax these are obviously Marked high or low and on the GFS as H for High pressure and Lows are T.....

Guide

that guide may help-

Steve :)

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Posted
  • Location: Ellesmere,north shropshire
  • Location: Ellesmere,north shropshire

Hi Dl-

No- not all systems rotate clockwise-

Areas of high pressure - or Anticyclones rotate clockerwise and areas of Low pressure rotate Anti clockwise-

On the Fax these are obviously Marked high or low and on the GFS as H for High pressure and Lows are T.....

Guide

that guide may help-

Steve  :)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ok...brilliant thanks again ....it does all sink in evenualy :)

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I was particularly interested by the points about convective snow tending to require less low 850hPa temps/500mbar thicknesses than frontal snow.

It tallies extremely well with my own experiences. Even in winter, I have seen snow showers fall with the temperature starting at around 5-6C, while I don't remember seeing frontal snow fall at anything above 3C.

In spring, the respective figures are 8C (snow showers) and 4-5C (frontal snow)

Having said that, the threshold for settling snow seems to be around 1C regardless of the nature of the precipitation. Exceptional cases include particularly heavy snow showers falling with low dewpoints (in which case I have seen snow settling up to around 3C) and when the ground is particularly wet and soils are warm (in which case it can struggle to settle at anything above 0C)

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I think for me, a 1963 would be much more bearable than a 1947, for one simple reason- sunshine.

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
Hi John

I must admit I would love it!!  I guess in 63 (and certainly in 47) many people didn't have central heating etc - so that would have made a difference.

My ideal climate would be continental - long cold and snowy winters and hot thundery summers!

Emigration?!

:)

SP

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My ideal environment would be like that of Winnipeg. Lots of very cold temps (accompanied by efficient heating :D ) with occasional snow showers. It boggles the mind somewhat but the mean temperature for Winnipeg in Jan 2005 was an incredible -19.9c :o !

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

-19.9C as a mean temp for a week, let alone a winter,here and the country would be at a complete standstill, even without any snow.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

hi all

I thought I would use some data I have to try and illustrate what a ‘typical’ low level station in eastern England recorded during that period; 7-17 February 1955.

No names, no pack drill, but the more astute will work out which station.

.steve_muir.xls

Regards

John

Edited by johnholmes
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In recent years, we have often had heavy snow showers giving fairly big accumulations but I don't think we have had real frontal snowfall here since 1996.

Sometimes the showers have been helped by troughs though.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
]

PS I hope to release a Winter forecast at the mid point of Nov.........

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Steve

Quite simply magnificent! Look forward to your winter forecast with great anticipation.

regards

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

well that was excellent mate. i can see your love of the weather and its many anomalies keeps you busy in your spare time.

once again, excellent post. well done.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, England
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, England

Excellent post Steve, an enjoyable read.

You can of course get thickness and partial thickness charts from NOAA which I find is very useful and easy to use.

Thickness map for 7 Oct at 12Z.

5003rr.gif

Partial thickness map for 7 Oct at 12Z.

8505mg.gif

The last frontal snowfall we had was I think overnight on 31st Jan / 1st Feb 2003 as a warm front moved across East Anglia. Temperatures ranged between -1C and 0C whilst the front moved through, adding a further 6cm's or so on top of the heavy falls from the day before (the infamous M11 event!), the sun came out and temps rose to +3C but most of the snow remained I think and lay (in shaded patches) for up to a week with some freeze/thaw action.

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