Hurricane 'vince'

[Gray-Wolf]

Shall we have a natter about what we have on our side of the pond then?

Edited October 9, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[Mondy]

Nice one GW (I'm forever starting topics) :unsure:

Anyway..Vince is in full motion...just wonder if Portugal, France and Spain are aware, let alone the Uk?

Extratropical, then dissipated before he hits the Uk?

What will the cooler northern waters do?

Just a rain event or more?

Who knows?

Just a few questions to ponder for all

Edited October 9, 2005 by Mondy

[conor123]

:unsure:

[Gray-Wolf]

I know afew storms have been called Hurricanes but has there been a confirmed 'Hurricane' so close to mainland Europe before and, if so, where,when and what happened?

It is a pretty little thing though, so strange not having the US or Cuba there for scale!!! 15 mile eye, is that a reasonable size for an eye or are the Americans doin' it bigger and better?

Bit of a 'wow' though eh?

[SnowBear]

This little thing was shown on the model Mondy (I think it was) on the Future Developments thread with the possible multiple landfalls in the USA. The model had this one spinning up the coast of Africa. If the guiding winds are right, and the approaching fronts are advancing right, it is quite possible for this to happen albeit very rarely. I have no doubts this has happened before, just before any records we have to date. A rarety indeed!

The way this one is able to become a hurricane is a little unclear, being over cooler water etc, but, just shows we dont know it all yet :unsure:

[SnowBear]

Actually, I am looking back on records now, in 1883, a hurricane came across the UK, with sustained windspeeds of 92mph, in 1922 one passed Southern Ireland with winds of 81mph, these were though USA hurricanes which crossed the Atlantic and not formed and remained on the Eastern side of the Atlantic.

The track of Vince is not one I can match to any, though a few TS's have formed but faded slightly further south.

Edited October 9, 2005 by SnowBear

[Gray-Wolf]

The way this one is able to become a hurricane is a little unclear, being over cooler water etc, but, just shows we dont know it all yet :unsure:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What if SST's are masking slightly warmer subsurface temps (time of year and surface winds dissipating the heat in the upper 'band') and, once the convection got forming these 26/27degree waters were 'exposed' leaving the system over a 'warm anomaly that it creates as it moves by further uncovering warmer 'substrata' of the upper ocean?

*I'll have to stop staring at some folks optical illusions eh?*

[Roger J Smith]

Tropical storm Vince appears very small and seems unlikely to make it to hurricane status before becoming extratropical. I think it will just get swallowed up by the developing frontal wave further north tomorrow and add its moisture and energy to the developing rainfall event for parts of the UK as discussed in the net-weather warning. This whole situation is a little volatile so I'll keep an eye on it overnight your time while I am still wide awake, just in case Vince goes on a tear or starts a mega-storm chain of events which I think is about 5% possible in this situation.

[SnowBear]

*I'll have to stop staring at some folks optical illusions eh?*

Whats that sposed to mean ?

[SnowBear]

Roger, NOAA are saying it has a hurricane status

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS

ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION.

They have estimated 995mb, with 65kt winds.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/091500.shtml

:unsure:

Edited: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/092055.shtml

New Hurricane Vince discussion at NOAA TCP

Edited II: Cracking view/loop here of it

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...visirjava2.html

Edited October 9, 2005 by SnowBear

[Roger J Smith]

Okay, I just read the discussion, they say it could theoretically have 65 kt winds in the eyewall but they really aren't too sure how strong it really is. Looking at it on satellite, I would be surprised if it was much more than 50 kt but in any case it is so small a system that it can't sustain hurricane status very long over 23C water tonight and tomorrow. The more significant question is how it interacts with the developing frontal system and larger low pressure area over northwest Spain. Then the whole thing could blow up into a more powerful storm than the predicted wet but not overly windy system being advertised almost everywhere in the models for Tuesday over the UK. There is a slight potential here for a screaming deep low on a different trajectory than the October 1987 storm so it's going to be a very interesting 24 hours.

[The Eagle]

Okay, I just read the discussion, they say it could theoretically have 65 kt winds in the eyewall but they really aren't too sure how strong it really is. Looking at it on satellite, I would be surprised if it was much more than 50 kt but in any case it is so small a system that it can't sustain hurricane status very long over 23C water tonight and tomorrow. The more significant question is how it interacts with the developing frontal system and larger low pressure area over northwest Spain. Then the whole thing could blow up into a more powerful storm than the predicted wet but not overly windy system being advertised almost everywhere in the models for Tuesday over the UK. There is a slight potential here for a screaming deep low on a different trajectory than the October 1987 storm so it's going to be a very interesting 24 hours.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi, ive been lookin at Sattelite images and i cant seem to spot it......where is it exactly?

[the_white_stuff]

just North of the Canaries, about 150miles West of Southern Portugal/Spain (roughly)

[SnowBear]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...visirjava2.html

Satellite sequence there Darkman, is pretty cool

[Calrissian]

Vince is a beautiful sight, a clearly defined eye, small but very cohesive.

It certainly adds a touch of interest to this week, along with tomorrows 72f temps in the south-east of the UK.

*it remains interesting how the 'professionals' are having difficulty in keeping an open mind to a real 'hurricane' in our part of the world.

[The Eagle]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...visirjava2.html

Satellite sequence there Darkman, is pretty cool

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Cheers SB That is tiny!!!! (like a tornado on steroids!) Its heading for Portugal. I doubt its time for mass evac just yet

[SnowBear]

No worries Darkman

TROPICAL STORM VINCE IS NEAR 34.0N 19.2W AT 1500 UTC ABOUT 140

MILES NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS MOVING NE 4 KT.  MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB.  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST

NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23

KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  VINCE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH

MODERATE CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE CENTER WITHIN 45-60

NM...INTENSIFYING RECENTLY.  AN EYE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE

PICTURES WITH EVEN SOME HINTS OF OUTFLOW...  A SLOW MOTION TO

THE NE LOOKS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROBABLY

ABSORB THE SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS.  A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION

SUGGESTS THIS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND NORTH A TROPICAL CYCLONE

HAS EVER FORMED IN THE BASIN.   

Somewhere I read that hurricane force winds only reach about 15nm from the centre and tropical force 80nm....cant find where I read it again now though sorry

A rather special little guy really

I kinda think landfall somewhere on the Iberian landmass, probably not at hurricane strength though, but then with this little one, who knows!

[The Eagle]

No worries Darkman

Somewhere I read that hurricane force winds only reach about 15nm from the centre and tropical force 80nm....cant find where I read it again now though sorry

A rather special little guy really

I kinda think landfall somewhere on the Iberian landmass, probably not at hurricane strength though, but then with this little one, who knows!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If it intensifys further the synoptic situation would have to be reviewed big time. Also it looks a slow mover. If it did hit Iberia and into the bay of biscay......that could be interesting. Though that would only be a long shot

Edited October 9, 2005 by Darkman

[Kain]

Oh my god, it's a cat 1 Hurricane according to Accuweather!

Brilliant! Seriously this has made my day, our first ever home grown European hurricane!

Kain

[crimsone]

Brilliant! Seriously this has made my day, our first ever home grown European hurricane!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Really? I find it a bit of a concern. To me, whether it's brilliant or not depends n whether its a normal random and one-off type event, or a symptom of the beginning of a trend.

If the latter, europe could become a tropical zone

Of course, it's woth noting that for everything that everyone does know, nobody really has a clue as to what's really going on for sure. The best anyone does is make educated guesses.

[The PIT]

I'd be interested to see how the UK would react to a proper Hurricane. I see the following happening.

1) Alert issued

2) 99% of People go Huh and then go to work as normal

3) Bosses sack the 1% for not turning up for work. They're fit for work as they were seen securing there houses.

4) Hurricane hits causing mass chaos on the roads as Lorries and coaches are blown across motorways. Police decide it's a good idea to close the Motorways too high sided vehicles.

5) Billions of pounds of damage large loss of life.

6) Enquiry launched as to why there wasn't any evac planned for the area in the storms path.

7) Meto blasted for not issuing enougth warnings.

New Minister for GW appointed.

9) Micheal Fish brought back as head of MetO.

10) Insurance Companies raise Home Insurance 200%

Edited October 10, 2005 by The PIT

[SxK]

Really? I find it a bit of a concern. To me, whether it's brilliant or not depends n whether its a normal random and one-off type event, or a symptom of the beginning of a trend.

Its a one off synoptic event... every day produces different synoptic conditions and it appears that the current synoptic situation has made this Hurricane formation possible. But that said, we probably wont see a Hurricane form in this area again for a long long time. The SSTs are just not warm enough - this is a freak anomaly.

Of course, it's woth noting that for everything that everyone does know, nobody really has a clue as to what's really going on for sure. The best anyone does is make educated guesses.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is true, but I think we understand the general rule that Hurricanes tend not to form in cooler seas. They normally need SSTs of 27c, the fact that this Hurricane has formed in SSTs of 24c obviously bucks the trend. We must however realise that this is a freak exception to the rule and unlikely to alter our thinking a great deal. On the plus side it does give us an opportunity to learn what conditions are needed for development of a tropical system over cooler seas.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well he's still a Hurricane then, I thought he may have weakened into a TS overnight. Full of surprises eh? Just how many "one off events" does it take for it to be a trend?Caterina was the Southern Hemispheres 'first 'Hurricane too so there's two 'firsts' for a start. We will see how much interest he causes today (I think the earthquake overshadows him until he becomes a 'danger' though).

[kold weather]

samkeep,I've said for a while that providing its got good atmopsheric condtions that a system could form in sea temps of just 24C and thats what has happened,its probably a hybird system,but it is a hurricane with a eyewall and eye,which has held steady for the past 2 days now.

So it being upgraded last night doesn't suprise me.

[crimsone]

This is true, but I think we understand the general rule that Hurricanes tend not to form in cooler seas. They normally need SSTs of 27c, the fact that this Hurricane has formed in SSTs of 24c obviously bucks the trend. We must however realise that this is a freak exception to the rule and unlikely to alter our thinking a great deal. On the plus side it does give us an opportunity to learn what conditions are needed for development of a tropical system over cooler seas.

As Donald Rumsfeld said (in far more confusing words than I will)...

There are things know that we don't know.

There are things we don't know that we don't know.

It's the latter of the two that usually come back too haunt us.

I'm not saying that you're wrong - I have no right, and there's no reason from what we know now to say that you are. That said, if science found something new that completely turnd hurricane theory on its head, it wouldn't be the first time that science has had egg on it's face for such a thing.